Informist, Friday, Sep 6, 2024

By Pallavi Singhal

NEW DELHI – Despite concerns of crop damage due to heavy rain in some parts of the country and a severe water deficit in others, experts predict that the overall production of major cereals is likely to remain steady or experience only a marginal decline. However, cash crops such as cotton may suffer losses, they say.

“While there are reports of crop damage from across states which are bearing the brunt of heavy rainfall, we do not see a problem overall,” Abheek Barua, chief economist at HDFC Bank, said. “States like Karnataka and Telangana are used to excess rainfall with farmers making arrangements for the same ahead of time,” he said.

This optimism is fuelled by the fact that farmers have planted crops across a larger area, which is expected to offset any potential losses. Farmers across the country have sown kharif crops across 108.7 mln ha as of Monday, up 2% from a year ago, with notable increases in acreage of paddy and pulses, data from the agriculture ministry showed. While the area under paddy has risen 4% on year to 40.9 mln ha, that under pulses is up nearly 7.3% on year at 12.5 mln ha. Within pulses, acreage under tur was significantly up by 12.4% on year at 4.6 mln ha.

As per an assessment by Pushan Sharma, director of research at Market Intelligence & Analytics, CRISIL Ltd, for Informist, key crops such as paddy, tur, groundnut, cotton, and soybean are likely to be adversely affected by the current spell of heavy rain, though he too agrees that the overall kharif production is not likely to be affected much. “The production is likely to remain range-bound or decline slightly due to heavy rains in key agricultural states of the country, with support from increased acreage,” he said.

Paddy and cotton are some of the biggest crops of Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana, which have seen extremely heavy rainfall in the past few weeks. While North Karnataka has seen rainfall in excess of the seasonal average by 19%, South Karnataka has witnessed 30% excess rainfall. Telangana and Andhra Pradesh have seen 28% and 44% excess rainfall, respectively. “Paddy crop at this time will likely be in the milking stage and incessant rainfall during this stage will reduce grain filling and, ultimately, yields,” Sharma said.

The cotton crop, currently in the flowering stage, will enter the boll formation stage in the next few weeks. “Anticipated heavy rainfall may impact boll formation and lead to boll drop, inducing reduction in quality and yield,” he said. Cotton, whose acreage has fallen 9% on year to 11.2 mln ha, is likely to be affected further by the heavy spells of rain over Gujarat, a key cotton-growing state.

“Cotton has not been doing well this year and its production may see a large deficit," HDFC Bank's Barua said. "Excess heat delayed sowing in Gujarat initially and excessive rainfall has now weakened prospects of a good output. Inundation of the crop and pestilence will further damage it.”

Other crops that may suffer damage include groundnut and soybean. Groundnut, still in the harvest stage in September, can be damaged by heavy rains and waterlogging which may reduce yields by leading to difficulty in harvesting the pods, according to Sharma. As per an Informist report, groundnut markets in Gujarat opened Thursday after many days of closure due to heavy rainfall. Arrivals have already been of poor quality with high moisture content. While interior Gujarat has seen rainfall in excess of 27% of the season's average, Saurashtra and Kutch regions are also struggling with heavy rainfall, already 84% in excess so far.

Soybean, whose prices have crashed on expectations of a bumper crop, is currently at the pod-filling stage and will reach the harvest stage in the next few weeks. “Any heavy rainfall in September could hamper the pod filling and adversely impact the quality of the produce,” Sharma of CRISIL Market Intelligence and Analytics said.

Meanwhile, states such as Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, and Odisha face a high rainfall deficit, with Bihar leading with a 26% seasonal deficit. But HDFC’s Barua does not see this having a big impact on overall production due to the extensive irrigation potential these states hold. “All of these states, including Bihar, UP, Punjab, and Haryana, have high irrigation cover and should not suffer,” he said. End

Edited by Rajeev Pai

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