Informist, Thursday, Sep 19, 2024

MUMBAI - India's exportable surplus of key crops such as wheat and rice is likely to stay flat or show a reduction in the next 10 years, a joint report by S&P Global and CRISIL Ltd, titled India Forward Emerging Perspectives has said.

According to the United Nations' estimates, India surpassed China as the world’s most populous country in 2023. Further, with population growth likely to continue over the coming decade, the need for food self-sufficiency becomes even more important, the report said.

"Indian consumption demand has increased over the past two decades, thanks to a rising population coupled with income growth and changing lifestyles. India is self-sufficient in staples, but with swelling demand, the 10-year outlook indicates a reduction or stagnation of exportable surplus for key crops from 2020-21 (Apr-Mar) levels," it said.

The report points out that agricultural input is also being increasingly used for biofuel production to curtail India's reliance on energy imports and to provide farmers with a new avenue for income.

There is a mounting pressure on agriculture to address food demand, energy and feed sector needs, which according to the report can only be eased by boosting land productivity and through infrastructure reforms. "A demand increase for agricultural input without a corresponding supply increase would distort supply-demand balances and reduce exportable surplus, potentially forcing consumer sectors to import the required crops," it said.

India's agricultural exports fell 8.2% in the financial year ended March on the back of shipment curbs on a host of commodities such as wheat, rice, onion and sugar.

The value of farm exports totalled $48.82 bln in 2023-24 (Apr-Mar), down from the record $53.15 bln of 2022-23, and $50.24 bln for 2021-22, data from the Commerce ministry showed.

According to Pushan Sharma, the director-Research at CRISIL Market Intelligence and Analytics, it is the value realisation in agricultural commodities which needs to improve, in order to make agriculture more sustainable for 50% of the population which continues to gain employment from it.

"We need to enhance the realisation of farmers so that they find it lucrative to continue being in the profession. For that we need to enhance the share of not only the export, but also the quality of what we are exporting," he said, speaking at the launch of the report in Mumbai today.

If you look at the share of value-added products such as ready-to-eat snack, biscuits, bakery items, they form less than 2% of our exports, he said. "Only if the basic crop items are enhanced, can the farmers actually get to higher realisations for their produce." End

Reported by Pallavi Singhal

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

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