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Informist, Saturday, Oct. 24, 2026

 

By Anand JC

 

MUMBAI – Bajaj Auto Ltd.'s net profit and revenue growth is expected to slow to its weakest in the last three quarters on a year-on-year basis for the September quarter as weakness in domestic vehicle sales offset the strong performance in exports, according to analysts. A higher proportion of exports in overall sales is expected to further lift its revenue for the quarter as the rupee continued to depreciate against the dollar during the reporting period.

 

Bajaj Auto is forecast to report a net profit of INR 31.78 billion for the quarter ended Sept. 30, according to the average of 20 estimates. If met, this would translate to a year-on-year growth of 28% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 6.5%. The highest estimate for net profit is INR 33.00 billion by Nomura Equity Research while the lowest profit estimate is INR 30.04 billion by Asit C. Mehta Financial Services Ltd.

 

Its revenue for the September quarter is projected to improve 28% on year and almost 11% on quarter to INR 190.85 billion, according to the average of estimates. If met, this would be the fifth consecutive quarter that Bajaj Auto's top line has grown in double digits on a year-on-year basis. The highest forecast for the Pune-based automaker revenue is INR 200.40 billion by Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd. while the lowest is INR 185.38 billion by Mirae Asset Sharekhan Ltd.

 

Bajaj Auto sold 1.55 million vehicles in the quarter under preview, up almost 20% on year and nearly 8% on quarter. A bulk of this growth came from exports, which grew 41% on year to 778,528 units, while domestic sales grew only 4% to 770,356 units. Its three-wheeler portfolio grew 26% on year while its exports benefited from recovery in Africa and strong trends in Latin America, Kotak Securities Ltd. said.

 

The company's top-line growth for the quarter is expected to be supported by an increase in the average selling price of its vehicles due to a higher proportion of premium vehicles and electric vehicles in its sales mix and price hikes. Most analysts expect the average selling price of Bajaj Auto's vehicles to have grown 4-6% on year for the September quarter. While exports likely provided better foreign exchange realisation, some of these gains are expected to be partly offset by higher mix of economy segment vehicles in overall exports.

 

The Pulsar maker has been focusing on driving up its market share in the sub-premium-to-premium motorcycle segment and the electric scooter segment through the Chetak line-up. Exports have increasingly emerged as the nucleus of Bajaj Auto's overall sales strategy while its growth in the domestic two-wheeler market moderates.

 

Bajaj Auto currently has a market share of around 10% in India's motorcycle market, down sharply from the peak of 14% hit roughly a couple of years ago. In particular, its market share in entry-level motorcycles, those with an engine capacity under 125 cubic centimetres, has fallen to around 10% from the peak of 16% around two years ago. In its current focus market of the sub-premium category, motorcycles between 125cc and 250cc, the company's market share has moderated to 28% from the peak of 35% at the end of 2024-25 (Apr-Mar).

 

"Bajaj Auto's diversified revenue profile should provide resilience as domestic 2W growth moderates. Its 100%-owned captive financier, Bajaj Auto Credit, adds another earnings lever, reporting strong financing support aids vehicle sales, while BACL's expanding profitability adds value at the consolidated level," Systematix said.

 

The company's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation for the September quarter are projected to climb 29% on year and just over 9% on quarter to INR 39.25 billion, according to the average of 17 estimates. The highest EBITDA projection is INR 40.73 billion by Nomura and the lowest projection is INR 37.98 billion by Asit C. Mehta.

 

Most analysts do not expect any adverse movement in Bajaj Auto's EBITDA margin for the September quarter. Any pressure due to raw material cost inflation, costs related to new product launches, higher sales of Chetak scooters--these are margin-dilutive--is expected to be offset by price hikes, favourable forex realisation, and operating leverage, analysts said. Kotak Securities expects the automaker's EBITDA margin for the September quarter to gain around 40 basis points on year but remain almost flat on quarter at around 20.9%.

 

Bajaj Auto will disclose its September quarter earnings on Tuesday. Investors will track the company's commentary on domestic two-wheeler market, exports, and outlook on margins.

 

Friday, shares of the company ended 0.82% lower at INR 10,072 apiece on the National Stock Exchange. The shares are down roughly 3% since the company detailed its June quarter earnings on Jul. 21.

 

Of the 21 research reports on the company available with Informist, 15 have a "buy" recommendation on the stock with average target price of INR 12,278 per share, which is 22?ove the closing price Friday. As many as three have a ‘hold' or equivalent recommendation on the stock and a similar number have a "sell" or equivalent call.

 

Following are the Jul-Sept earnings estimates for Bajaj Auto from 20 brokerages in descending order by estimate of net profit, in INR billion:

Brokerages	Net sales	Net profit	EBITDA
Nomura Equity Research	196.75	33.00	40.73
Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Ltd	195.00	32.99	0.00
Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd	200.40	32.90	39.70
360 ONE Capital Market Pvt Ltd	193.13	32.80	0.00
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd	196.11	32.35	39.86
SMIFS Ltd	192.58	32.30	39.85
Equirus Securities Pvt Ltd	193.42	32.18	39.65
Antique Stock Broking Ltd	189.79	32.02	39.56
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd	189.42	31.99	39.62
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd	187.53	31.73	39.20
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd	188.42	31.57	38.99
Elara Securities (India) Pvt Ltd	189.42	31.54	39.28
Mirae Asset Sharekhan Ltd	185.38	31.53	0.00
ICICI Securities Ltd	189.39	31.52	39.67
YES Securities (India) Ltd	188.49	31.49	38.18
Kotak Securities Ltd	189.71	31.38	39.58
Choice Equity Broking Pvt Ltd	186.30	31.09	38.94
Axis Securities Ltd	187.62	30.76	38.38
Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt Ltd	189.97	30.38	38.09
Asit C. Mehta Financial Services Ltd	188.22	30.04	37.98
Average	190.85	31.78	39.25

 

End

 

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

 

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