Energy Supply
Markets' ability to absorb energy supply shocks limited on low stocks - Moody's
This story was originally published at 19:28 IST on 7 October 2026
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--Moody's Tay: Mumbai, Hyderabad, Chennai leading data centre expansion
--CONTEXT: Moody's Ratings ED, APAC Lead for Digital Infra Ray Tay at event
--Moody's Tay: Mumbai leading with 600 MW operational capacity data centres
--Moody's Halan: Markets' ability to absorb energy supply shocks limited
--CONTEXT: Moody's Ratings Corporate Finance Group MD Vikash Halan at event
--Moody's Halan: Oil markets entering strong demand season
--Moody's Halan: Stocks, diverse sourcing absorbed initial oil supply shocks
--Moody's Halan: Oil marketing cos, aviation bearing impact of supply shock
--Moody's Halan: Chemicals, steel cos moderately hit by energy supply shocks
--Moody's Halan: Global oil supply fragile on low inventories
--Moody's Halan: Credit profiles of most rated cos remain resilient
--Moody's Halan: Balance sheets, funding to help cos tackle short-term hit
--Moody's Halan:See Brent avg $90-$110/bbl '26 if W Asia war resolved this yr
--Moody's Halan: Sustained oil price of $100-$120/bbl may hit demand, growth
NEW DELHI – Oil markets have limited ability to absorb additional energy supply shocks as the world, including China, is entering into a seasonally strong demand period with limited inventories, Moody's Corporate Finance Group Managing Director Vikash Halan said on Wednesday.
"...as we head further into the winter, we will need more oil and therefore the ability to absorb the shock is very limited," Halan said at an event here. "Therefore, the market is tight, as well as the market is very fragile."
Moody's expects crude oil supply to recover gradually towards late 2026 or early 2027. The rating agency has retained its Brent price outlook at $55-$75 per barrel in the medium term, and sees it averaging $90-$110 per barrel for the remainder of 2026.
"This is the price we use for rating companies in the oil and gas sector, and that has not changed. This is the same price that we had back in January. But the real story actually is on the spread of the product," Halan said. With global spare refining capacity narrowing, middle distillates such as diesel and jet fuel are facing supply bottlenecks.
India managed the initial energy supply shock through diversified sourcing and by delving into inventories. The country was able to ensure supply and control prices, but the cost of absorbing higher prices is accumulating. "And the longer this goes, the ability to continue to accumulate those losses, that there will come a point where you will have to pass on the cost," he added.
In terms of the impact, Halan said oil marketing companies and airlines were the worst hit by higher energy prices. While chemical and steel companies were moderately impacted, "oil marketing companies are at the front line. They're the ones moving the losses, increasing the capital...they are paying the cost the most at the moment...and airlines are next in line."
Moody's has retained a "stable" outlook for 90% of its corporate coverage in India as many rated companies have entered the energy supply with healthy balance sheets. Large issuers continue to have access to private and government funding. The credit profile of the rated portfolio remains resilient. However, capital expenditure, acquisitions, and distributions may be moderated going ahead.
On India's digital infrastructure, a Moody's expert said a few metropolitan cities such as Mumbai, Hyderabad, and Chennai are leading the data centre expansion in the country. "Mumbai remains the dominant hub with growth expanding into other clusters," said Ray Tay, executive director and Asia Pacific lead for digital infrastructure at Moody's Ratings. The city houses data centres with an operational capacity of about 600 megawatts and is planning to expand its capacity to over 1,600 megawatts going ahead.
Moody's expects data centre capacity in India to grow four-five times in the next few years. "...from a capacity of 1.2 gigawatts in 2025, in terms of operational IT capacity, it will grow to 4 or 5 gigawatts by 2032," Tay said. However, he expects data centres' power consumption to rise 2% in 2032 from 0.5% in 2025. End
Reported by Afra Abubacker and Shweta
Edited by Avishek Dutta
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