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Informist, Wednesday, Oct. 7, 2026

MUMBAI - Purvi Mundhra, economist and deputy vice-president at Choice Institutional Equities, said the following on the Reserve Bank of India's fourth bi-monthly monetary policy statement for 2026-27 (Apr-Mar) detailed Wednesday: 

The 25 bps hike was expected, but the shift to calibrated tightening is the real signal. The RBI has effectively started a hiking cycle it is reluctant to name, and we see a further 25 bps at each of the next two meetings.

The deeper issue is the gap between how worried the RBI sounds and how little it has moved its numbers. It calls inflation the primary concern while still forecasting as though it is transitory. We see FY27 inflation at 5.8-5.9%, against the RBI's 5.2%, a gap that reflects just how much the central bank is still underplaying the price pressures already in the system.

The GDP upgrade, meanwhile, is arithmetic rather than conviction, it simply absorbs a strong Q1 (June quarter), and the back-half numbers look vulnerable. With growth set to slow as inflation climbs, the economy is edging toward a stagflationary mix. The RBI describes the global backdrop as severe but models it as survivable. India's resilience is real, but set against this global setting, it is being asked to do more work than it can comfortably handle, and we think it is operating on borrowed time.  End

Compiled by Arya S. Biju

Filed by Avishek Dutta

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