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Informist, Thursday, Oct. 1, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil 

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell to its lowest level against the dollar since Jul. 24 due to persistent dollar demand amid a surge in crude oil prices, the dollar index, and US Treasury yields, dealers said. Dollar purchases by banks on behalf of importers and foreign portfolio investors triggered stop-losses on short dollar bets, leading to further fall in the rupee, they said. However, dollar sales by the Reserve Bank of India limited the decline in the Indian currency.

 

"Now that the rupee crossed 96.30, it can easily go to 96.50 soon. The rupee was in pain because of the global routs and persistent equity outflows. The stop-losses were also hit at 96 and 96.20 (a dollar)," a dealer at a private sector bank said.

 

The rupee settled at 96.3150 a dollar Thursday, down from 95.8300 Wednesday, its sharpest single-day fall since Jul. 14. The Indian currency moved in a wide range of 42 paise during the day, its highest intraday volatility in two months.

 

The rupee was also among the worst-performing Asian currencies on Thursday, alongside the South Korean won. Asian currencies fell 0.2%-0.5% during the day.  

 

The rupee started the day on a weak note, weighed down by a strong dollar index and multi-year high US Treasury yields. The dollar index rose to a five-month high during the day as tensions between the US and Iran escalated, with both sides threatening attacks. The rupee held the 96.00-a-dollar level for most of the day, but once the level was breached, stop-losses were triggered, sending the currency down 15 paise within minutes.

 

The dollar index was at 101.79, up from 101.46 on Wednesday, while the 10- and 30-year US Treasury yields traded around 5.30% and 5.64%, respectively, during the day, with both reaching the highest levels since 2002. 

 

Continued foreign fund outflows added to dollar demand and weighed on the Indian unit. Foreign portfolio investors net sold $5.54 billion from Indian markets as of Sept. 29, after investing in the previous three months. On Thursday, the Nifty 50 and Sensex closed down 0.9% and 0.8%, respectively.

 

Meanwhile, Brent crude oil for December delivery rose to $100.07 a barrel at 1530 IST from $98.03 a barrel on Wednesday, adding pressure on the Indian unit. US President Donald Trump on Wednesday said, "We blow them (Iran) up, we make a deal, but the time is coming. It will end very soon one way or the other." Crude prices remained elevated as the market remained cautious about uncertainty surrounding a peace deal between the US and Iran, despite Saudi Arabia restoring half the capacity of its East-West pipeline.

 

However, dollar sales by some public sector banks, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, limited the rupee's losses. The RBI was present at multiple levels, dealers said. "The RBI was present actively today as well. I think if RBI was not supplying dollars, the rupee would have easily fallen to 96.50 (a dollar) today, because everything was against the rupee," a dealer at a foreign bank said.

 

The RBI's outstanding net short dollar position in the forward book surged to a record $200.06 billion at August-end from $136.77 billion at July-end, data released by the central bank on Wednesday showed, adding to risk-aversion in the market.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	96.3150	95.9500	95.8900	96.3150	95.8300
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	317.30	320.30	320.30	308.90	321.17

 

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium fell sharply Thursday as some banks sold dollars for forward delivery for exporters, noting the relatively higher levels, dealers said. The one-year forward premium has risen almost 50 basis points in September. It had hit a near four-month high of 3.52% the previous month. 

 

The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note and the 30-year US Treasury yield traded at around 5.3% and 5.64%, respectively, which kept forward premiums under pressure. 

 

The one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium was 3.29% at 1530 IST, down from Wednesday's close of 3.35%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 317.30 paise, against 321.17 paise Wednesday.

 

OUTLOOK

The foreign exchange market will be shut on Friday for Gandhi Jayanti. On Monday, the rupee will continue to take cues from movements in crude oil prices amid evolving developments in West Asia, dealers said. The Indian currency will also continue to take cues from movements in the dollar index, they said. Investors now await weekly US jobless claims data later in the day and the September jobs report on Friday.

 

Traders remain cautious ahead of the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee meeting scheduled for Oct 5-7. The market expects the panel to hike the repo rate by 25 basis points to 50 basis points to contain inflationary pressures.

 

"Going ahead, markets will focus on the RBI policy decision next week, with expectations of a rate hike amid the current macroeconomic environment. The currency is likely to remain volatile, with the range seen between 95.75–96.75," Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities, said.

Dealers see strong technical support for the Indian currency at 96.35 per dollar. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 95.90-96.35 against the dollar on Monday.

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India Rupee - World FX: Dlr nears 5-mo high on rate hike bets, high US ylds

 

	AT 1440 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3225	1.3273	1.3209	1.3262
EUR/USD	1.1298	1.1337	1.1288	1.1331
NZD/USD	0.5610	0.5637	0.5605	0.5630
AUD/USD	0.6942	0.6956	0.6935	0.6945
USD/JPY	158.2930	158.4520	157.3590	157.2920
USD/CAD	1.4241	1.4250	1.4232	1.4231
EUR/JPY	178.8470	179.3110	178.1300	178.2700
CHF/USD	1.1967	1.2000	1.1929	1.1957
EUR/CHF	0.9440	0.9478	0.9420	0.9467

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index neared a five-month high as it continued to derive support from the prospect of the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates further. The softer-than-expected August US PCE inflation data barely put a dent in Fed tightening expectations. 

 

Data released Wednesday showed that the US personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.3% in August, below expectations of a 0.4% increase. Core PCE rose 0.2%, also below the forecast of 0.3%.

 

The dollar's continued strength comes as US Treasury yields again hit multiyear highs earlier. The 10- and 30-year US Treasury yields traded around 5.3% and 5.64%, respectively, the highest since 2002. At 1430 IST, the dollar index was at 101.80, sharply up from 101.46 Wednesday.

 

The euro hit its lowest point in 17 months, as investors sold off European assets due to the impact on the regional economy from higher crude oil prices and inflation, while mounting political uncertainty added to pressure. The euro was down almost 0.4% to $1.1290 Thursday. 

 

The sterling pound remained at a two-month low and fell 0.4% to $1.3212 as the dollar gained strength. Uncertainty over the peace deal between the US and Iran also gave a boost to the greenback. 

 

The Japanese yen was down 0.7% to 158.11 a dollar, inching towards a one-month low as the summary of opinions from the Bank of Japan's September meeting fell short of investors' expectations for stronger hawkish signals from policymakers.

 

The Canadian dollar fell marginally to 1.4247 per dollar, and the Australian dollar hit an eleven-week low at 1.4403 a dollar as investors trimmed bets on another near-term rate hike by Reserve Bank of Australia.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Premiums down on exporters' fwd dollar sales, high US yields

 

	AT 1400 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	96.2150	95.9500	95.8900	96.2550	95.8300
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	315.70	320.30	320.30	308.90	321.17

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium fell sharply Thursday as some banks sold dollars for forward delivery for exporters, noting the relatively higher levels, dealers said. The one-year forward premium has risen almost 50 basis points in September. It had hit a near four-month high of 3.52% the previous month. 

"Premiums are at good levels, so the exporters are actively receiving in forwards now," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

The rupee hit a two-month low of 96.25 a dollar in the spot market Thursday as the dollar index and US yields rose sharply amid concern about persistent global price pressures stemming from the US-Iran war. However, the Reserve Bank of India kept intervening in the market to limit the losses, dealers said. 

 

The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note and the 30-year US Treasury yield traded at around 5.3% and 5.64%, respectively, with both reaching levels not seen since 2002, which kept forward premiums under pressure. 

 

The one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium was 3.28% at 1400 IST, down from Wednesday's close of 3.35%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 315.70 paise, against 321.17 paise Wednesday. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Falls past 96/$ on rise in crude, dlr index, US ylds

 

	AT 1230 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	96.1550	95.9500	95.8900	96.1625	95.8300

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell sharply past the crucial 96-a-dollar level as banks bought dollars for importers and foreign portfolio investors, dealers said. "The equity outflow is persistent and importers are actively purchasing now. It was definite that the rupee was going to cross 96 (a dollar) today," a dealer at a private sector bank said.

 

The rupee fell 13 paise further quickly after rupee hit 96 a dollar as importers' continuous dollar purchases led to stop-losses being triggered on short dollar bets. However, losses for the Indian unit were limited as the Reserve Bank of India likely stepped in to sell dollars at around 95.99 a dollar, they said. The central bank has been trying to hold 96 a dollar for a week, barring Tuesday, when it crossed 96, but reversed due to RBI's intervention.

 

The dollar index touched an over three-month high Thursday, supported by an extended rise in US Treasury yields that has been partly driven by concern about persistent global price pressures stemming from the US-Iran war. "There is nothing positive for the rupee so far. The dollar index, crude, US yields are all rising, demand for dollars are also high," the dealer said.

 

The US inflation rose less than expected in August, along with downward revisions to July's reading, which reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike this month. But a surge in eurozone inflation underscored the threat that higher energy prices continue to pose to the global economy.

 

The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note and 30-year US Treasury yields were around 5.3% and 5.64%, respectively, with both reaching levels not seen since 2002. At 1230 IST, the dollar index was at 101.62, sharply up from 101.46 Wednesday. 

 

Crude oil prices also moved to $98.82 a dollar from $98.03 a barrel Wednesday, which put pressure on the Indian unit. The uncertainty over a peace deal between the US and Iran kept the market cautious. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in a range of 95.80-96.20 a dollar. Dealers see immediate technical support at 96.20 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Oct 1

 

MUMBAI –  At 1210 IST, the rupee was at 95.9875 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 95.9500 a dollar, against the previous close of 95.8300. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and a brokerage: 

 

Participant	S2	S1	R1	R2
Public-sector bank	96.10	96.05	95.80	95.70
Private-sector bank	96.15	96.05	95.85	95.75
Brokerage firm	96.15	96.05	95.80	95.70
Brokerage firm	96.17	96.10	95.83	95.77

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Falls as dollar index, US yields rise; RBI may limit losses

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.9000	95.9500	95.9725	95.8900	95.8300

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell in early trade Thursday as the dollar index strengthened to a two-month high and the US Treasury yields rose to highest level in 24 years, dealers said. "Dollar demand continues to grow after higher US rates. Even crosses (cross currencies) also under heavy pressure due to Europe political crisis and energy issues. This is also aiding the dollar index," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

A faster-than-expected jump in inflation across the eurozone's biggest economies has raised the odds of European Central Bank raising interest rates again this year to bring price growth down to target. 

 

Higher crude oil prices also continued to put pressure on the Indian unit. Crude prices remained as the market was cautious about uncertainty in the peace deal between the US and Iran, despite Saudi Arabia restoring half the capacity of its East-West pipeline. At 0930 IST, Brent crude oil for December delivery was $97.06 a barrel, slightly down from $97.43 at the end of Indian foreign exchange market hours Wednesday.

 

The dollar index remained firm at a two-month high, while the 10- and 30-year US Treasury yields traded around 5.3% and 5.64%, respectively, with both reaching levels not seen since 2002. At 0930 IST, the dollar index was at 101.59, sharply up from 101.19 at the end of Indian foreign exchange market hours Wednesday. "Most of the factors are negative for the rupee now, and that is seen in today's opening," the dealer said. 

 

However, dealers expect the Reserve Bank of India to actively protect a crucial level of 96 per dollar, as it has been doing in the past week. For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to trade in a range of 95.80-95.98 a dollar. Dealers see immediate technical support at 95.98 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Oct 1

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Wednesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Public-sector bank	96.10	95.80
Private-sector bank	96.15	95.80
Private-sector bank	96.10	95.80
Private-sector bank	96.15	95.90
Brokerage firm	96.15	95.90
Brokerage firm	96.09	95.83

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 96.3150

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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