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Informist, Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2026

 

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--IMD: Oct-Dec rainfall expected to be below normal over most parts of India                                
--IMD: Oct rainfall seen below normal at 85% of long-period average                                
--IMD: El Nino expected to strengthen through remainder of 2026                                
--IMD: El Nino conditions prevailed in Sept, impacting rains on most days
--IMD: Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions likely to continue during Oct-Dec 
--IMD: Sept rains mixed; some regions got good rains, others weak 
--IMD: Sept rains above-normal in northwest, central India 
--IMD: Sept rains below-normal in south, east, northeast India 
--IMD: Low-pressure, western disturbances caused good rains in central India  
--IMD: See southwest monsoon retreating from north, parts of central India this wk                                
--IMD: See southwest monsoon retreating from east India next wk 
--IMD: India Jun-Sept rain below normal, 87% of historical avg 
--IMD: India rainfall in Jun-Sept 12.6?low normal at 759.4 mm 
--IMD: Jun-Sept India rainfall 759.4 mm, 4th lowest since 2001   
--IMD: Punjab, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam got continuous deficient monsoon rains 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NEW DELHI – El Nino conditions are likely to continue strengthening through the end of 2026, causing 'below-normal' rainfall over most parts of India during Oct-Dec, the India Meteorological Department said. However, some areas of northwest and south India are likely to receive 'normal' to 'above-normal' rains for the next three months. 

 

"Below-normal rainfall during the rabi season (Oct-Dec) could adversely affect soil moisture, water availability, irrigation requirements, and agricultural productivity," the weather department said. "Although extreme weather events are generally less frequent during this season, their occurrence and localized impacts cannot be ruled out."

 

For October, the department has forecast 'below-normal' rains at 85% or less of the long-period average over most of India. But some areas in northwest, south and east India may experience 'normal' to 'above-normal' rains. Meanwhile, both minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be above-normal over most parts of India next month, barring some pockets of northwest and south India. Wheat is majorly grown in northwest India over Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Haryana. 

 

The department did not detail its long-range forecasts on temperature in Oct-Dec, a crucial period for the growth of wheat, a key rabi crop. Warmer winters reduce wheat yields and impair grain quality. 
 

According to the Indian Meteorological Department, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are observed over the Indian Ocean and are likely to continue as neutral during the remainder of 2026, impacting the upcoming northeast monsoon rains during Oct-Dec. Typically, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole can abate some impact of an El Nino event. 

 

The southwest monsoon season (Jun-Sept) has ended, and the country as a whole received 12.6?ficit rains at 759.4 millimetres, the fourth lowest since 2001, said the weather bureau. All regions of India received deficient rainfall during the southwest monsoon season, with the highest deficits recorded in south, east and northeast India. East and northeast India received 25.6?ficit rainfall at 1,017.1 millimetres, the lowest since 1901 or on record.

Meanwhile, Punjab, and Assam and a few other northeastern states faced continuous deficient rainfall throughout June, July, August, and September, the weather department said.

 

According to the weather bureau, the southwest monsoon started retreating on Sept. 19 and has withdrawn from entire Delhi, most parts of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, and some parts of Uttar Pradesh, and Gujarat last week. The monsoon will withdraw further from most parts of central and northwest India by the first week of October and from most parts of the east, northeast, and some parts of the north peninsular India in the following week. 

Reviewing September, the department said, rainfall during the month was mixed as some local weather systems led to good rains in some areas despite strong El Nino conditions prevailing on most days of September. 

Three low-pressure systems formed during September, of which two intensified into deep depressions with good rainfall over parts of southern and central India, as well as the Indo-Gangetic plains, the weather department said. Western disturbances interacting with the low-pressure systems also contributed to good rainfall over the Indo-Gangetic plains.  End

 

Reported by Afra Abubacker and Upasika Singhal

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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