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Informist, Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2026

 

By Adhithya Aji

 

MUMBAI – Benchmark indices are expected to move in a range Thursday as crude oil prices were above the psychological mark of $100 per barrel. Analysts are of the view that the equity markets' overall breath is weak. Investors will now shift their focus to the upcoming monetary policy decision of the Reserve Bank of India and the September quarter corporate earnings.

 

The November futures of Brent crude was 0.6% higher at $103.17 per barrel. Analysts said a fall in crude prices is the one major factor that could help equity markets to recover. A fall in crude oil prices to around $75-$85 per barrel is likely to help stock indices lodge a meaningful recovery. However, no end to the US-Iran war is keeping oil supply concerns heightened and prices higher as well. "The overall market tone remains cautious; investors continue to monitor the trajectory of crude oil prices, bond yields, inflation expectations, and the potential implications for global monetary policy," Vinod Nair, head of research at Geojit Investments, said in a note.

 

The Reserve Bank of India will commence its monetary policy meeting next week, with the central bank expected to hike interest rates. Major central banks have raised benchmark rates amid inflationary pressures sparked by higher crude oil prices. While India's retail inflation is still within the RBI's upper tolerance band of 4-6%, the probability of a rate hike has increased given the global developments, Bajaj Alternate Investment Management said in a report. "We believe India's macroeconomic fundamentals remain resilient and can withstand a couple of additional rate hikes without impacting growth much," the report said.

 

The primary market continued to outperform secondary markets as new initial public offers are being fairly valued. "The market buzz is that like you know the foreign money is being replaced by domestic money," said a head of research, with a domestic broking firm. Investors see more returns in new businesses coming to the market and are valued reasonably. The positive trend in IPOs is expected to continue, the analyst said. Analysts are positive on broader market indices --midcaps and smallcaps. The broader markets outperformed benchmark peers on the back of robust earnings posted in the June quarter. The same traction is expected to continue going ahead as well.

 

Support for the Nifty 50 is seen at 22550-22500, while resistance is seen around 22790-22800, according to technical analysts. A sustained move above the resistance level is expected to take the index towards 22950, Sudeep Shah, vice-president, technical and derivatives research at SBI Securities, said in a note. "However, the broader structure remains weak, and sustained buying traction would be required for a meaningful recovery," Shah said.  End

 

US$1 = INR 95.83

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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