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Informist, Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2026

 

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--S&P Global: Expect Jul-Sept GDP growth to be around 7% 
--S&P Global: Expect rupee to hit 93.5/$ by March 
--S&P Global: Foresee some strength in rupee as it is undervalued 
--S&P Global: Expect MPC to hike rates in Oct, Dec by 25 bps each 
--S&P Global: Expect crude oil to trade between $87/bbl and $93/bbl in FY27 
--S&P Global: Low reservoir levels now to weigh on winter crops 
--S&P Global:E-rupee may lead to significant improvement in trade settlement 
--S&P Global: India energy capacity addition may increase 60% over 2026-2030 
--S&P Global: See higher interest from private investors in upstream oil ops 
--S&P Global: Telangana most attractive state to set up data centres 
--S&P Global: Expect average annual capex of INR 9.1 tln between FY27, FY31 
--S&P Global: We are in a zone of continued crisis 
--CONTEXT: Comments from S&P Global officials in press meet

 

MUMBAI – S&P Global expects India's economic growth to remain strong in the Jul-Sept quarter at around 7%, even as persistent geopolitical tensions, elevated crude oil prices, and weak reservoir levels pose downside risks to growth, officials said at a press meeting on Wednesday. The agency expects crude oil prices to average between $87 and $93 a barrel in 2026-27 (Apr-Mar). Higher and persistent oil prices could weigh on growth through their impact on the current account, oil marketing companies, government finances and retail prices, officials said. 

 

S&P Global expects the rupee to strengthen from current levels by March, with its official forecast at 93.5 per dollar. The currency is currently undervalued and historical trends suggest some correction when the rupee becomes significantly undervalued, officials said. On Wednesday, the rupee ended at 95.83 a dollar.

 

The agency expects the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee to raise the policy rate by 25 basis points each in October and December, reflecting expectations of persistent supply-side inflation pressures. S&P Global officials said the monetary policy cycle appeared to be turning, while stressing that further decisions would remain data-dependent. 

 

S&P Global also flagged risks to agriculture from weak water availability. Reservoir levels were 21?low year-ago levels and about 11?low average, while the monsoon season ended with a 12?ficiency, according to officials. The low reservoir levels could weigh on the winter crop, or rabi season, particularly through their impact on soil moisture and irrigation, Dharmakirti Joshi, chief economist at Crisil Ltd., said. Crisil is an S&P Global company.    

 

Despite these risks, S&P Global said India's growth outlook remains supported by resilient economic activity. The agency noted that the first-quarter growth rate was 7.8% and high-frequency indicators suggested a strong second quarter, providing support to its expectation that full-year growth would remain close to 7% for 2026-27 (Apr-Mar). 

 

On investment, S&P Global expects average annual capital expenditure in India to be around INR 9.1 trillion between FY27 and FY31. Officials said the composition of private investment is changing, with newer sectors such as renewables, electric vehicles and data centres becoming increasingly important. New-age sectors could account for around 25-27% of total investment, compared with about 15% five years ago. 

 

S&P Global also sees greater participation from private and foreign investors in India's upstream oil and gas sector. Officials said India has become more attractive for risk capital as the government has begun supporting risk-taking in upstream exploration and production, Rajeev Lala, director at S&P Global, said. 

 

India's energy capacity addition could increase around 60% over 2026-30, according to S&P Global. The agency said India's economic growth would increasingly be driven by electricity demand, with data centres, cooling systems and green hydrogen among the emerging sources of power demand. 

 

On digital finance, S&P Global said the e-rupee could significantly improve trade settlement, trade finance and cross-border payments. The agency said the potential of central bank digital currency should be assessed beyond retail wallet adoption, with more important applications including programmable money and more efficient settlement. 

 

S&P Global identified Telangana as the most attractive state for setting up data centres, citing its combination of regulatory conditions, land clearances, electricity availability and access to skilled labour. Maharashtra and Gujarat were also identified as leading states, while the attractiveness of states could change as governments adapt their policies. 

 

The agency characterised the current global environment as a "zone of continuing crisis", with geopolitical volatility increasingly becoming a persistent feature rather than a temporary shock. Officials said companies and policymakers were consequently having to adjust both short- and long-term strategies to operate in an environment where crisis timelines have effectively collapsed.  End

 

Reported by Kabir Sharma and Anand JC

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

 

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