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Informist, Tuesday, Sept. 29, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil

 

MUMBAI – The rupee erased all losses against the dollar as banks sold dollars, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India and foreign portfolio investors, dealers said. A fall in crude oil prices in the final leg of trade also supported the currency. However, higher US Treasury yields and dollar demand from importers weighed on the Indian currency. 

 

"The market is completely volatile now. It moves as per crude movements. A slight fall in crude, along with the RBI's intervention, bought it (USD/INR) below 95.98 per dollar," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

After hitting a low of 96.1500 per dollar in early trading, the rupee settled at 95.9800 per dollar, steady from the previous close of 95.9825 per dollar. The rupee has fallen nearly 0.9% against the dollar so far this month. Asian currencies were also steady against the dollar, except the South Korean won, which fell 0.3% Tuesday.  

 

The Indian rupee breached the psychologically crucial 96-per-dollar level at open and hit a two-month low as rising crude oil prices and surging US Treasury yields weighed on the Indian currency, dealers said. Banks also actively bought dollars on behalf of importers amid month-end payment obligations, triggering stop-losses on short-dollar positions and adding to dollar demand, they said.

 

However, RBI's mild dollar sales around 96.15 per dollar limited the rupee's decline in early trade. Dealers said the RBI may intervene actively to keep the market in a similar range, ahead of the RBI's upcoming Monetary Policy Committee meeting. 

 

Foreign fund inflows, as domestic and international passive funds reshuffled their equity portfolios to account for the latest semi-annual changes to the Nifty 50, Nifty Next 50 and other Nifty indices, supported the rupee, dealers said. A slight decline in crude oil prices, along with intervention by the Reserve Bank of India, helped the rupee recover its losses, they said.

 

Brent crude oil traded near $105 a barrel on Tuesday as markets weighed efforts to ease tensions in West Asia. US and Iranian officials continued separate discussions with mediators, including indirect contacts through Qatar, as regional governments pushed for ceasefire negotiations. At 1530 IST, Brent crude oil for November delivery was at $105.00 a barrel, down from $105.28 on Monday. The contract had hit a high of $108.83 a barrel on Monday.

 

The dollar index remained near a two-month high of 101.34, while the 10-year US Treasury yield rose to a two-decade high of 5.24%. Higher crude oil prices continued to stoke concerns about inflation and tighter monetary policy, supporting the dollar and weighing on risk sentiment.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.9800	96.0550	95.9500	96.1500	95.9825
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	318.22	336.75	336.80	317.17	337.00

 

 

FORWARDS

Dollar-rupee forward premiums fell across tenures as banks sold forward dollars to take advantage of the relatively higher premium levels, dealers said. The one-month dollar-rupee forward premium fell to 4.04% from an over five-month high of 4.69% Monday. The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium had hit a four-month high of 3.51% Monday. Forward premiums rose sharply in the previous session as the RBI likely conducted dollar-rupee sell-buy swaps to absorb surplus rupee liquidity from the banking system Monday.  

 

Forward premiums also came under pressure due to a sharp rise in US Treasury yields. The 10-year US Treasury yield remained near multi-year peaks on Tuesday, driven by persistent geopolitical risks in energy markets and central bank hawkishness across major economies. 

 

The benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield held at 5.24%, its highest level since July 2007, while the 30-year Treasury yield hovered at 5.56%, around its highest level since 2004.

 

The one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium was 3.32%, lower than 3.51% at Monday's close. In absolute terms, the premium was 318.22 paise, compared with 337.00 paise Monday. 

 

OUTLOOK 

On Wednesday, the rupee will continue to take cues from movements in crude oil prices amid evolving developments in West Asia, dealers said. The Indian currency will also continue to take cues from movements in the dollar index, they said. Traders remain cautious ahead of the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee meeting scheduled for Oct 5-7. The market expects the panel to hike the repo rate by 25 basis points to 50 basis points to contain inflationary pressures.

Dealers see strong technical support for the Indian currency at 96.10 per dollar. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 95.90-96.20 against the dollar Tuesday. 

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India Rupee - World FX: Dollar index at 2-mo high on rise in crude, US ylds

 

	AT 1420 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3232	1.3258	1.3227	1.3256
EUR/USD	1.1344	1.1377	1.1343	1.1369
NZD/USD	0.5649	0.5677	0.5645	0.5663
AUD/USD	0.6990	0.7029	0.6979	0.7017
USD/JPY	157.4210	157.5850	157.2080	157.4110
USD/CAD	1.4192	1.4195	1.4173	1.4171
EUR/JPY	178.5810	179.1300	178.4400	178.9070
CHF/USD	1.1986	1.2026	1.1986	1.2016
EUR/CHF	0.9463	0.9472	0.9453	0.9459

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index hovered near a two-month-high Tuesday as volatile crude oil prices and a rapid jump in US Treasury yields lent support. Traders await US economic data this week for clues on the Federal Reserve's rate path. 

 

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of peers, was at 101.38, the strongest since Jul. 29 and on track for a 2% rise this month.

 

The euro traded near its weakest level in three months at $1.1345 after the European Central Bank chief signalled measured steps to control inflation. The British pound was steady at $1.3248, near a three-month low.

 

The Australian dollar traded 0.1% lower at 1.43 per dollar. The Japanese yen was broadly steady at 157.43 per dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Premiums fall sharply as banks sell fwd dollars, US ylds rise

 

	AT 1330 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	96.0325	96.0550	96.1500	95.9800	95.9825
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	322.25	336.75	336.80	321.60	337.00

 

MUMBAI – Dollar-rupee forward premiums fell across tenures as banks sold forward dollars to take advantage of the relatively higher premium levels, dealers said. "There is a lot of short covering on profit booking today. It was expected that the premiums would fall after rising sharply yesterday," a dealer at a private sector bank said.  

 

The one-month dollar-rupee forward premium fell to 4.09% from an over five-month high of 4.69% Monday. The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium had hit a four-month high of 3.51% Monday. Forward premiums rose sharply in the previous session as the RBI likely conducted dollar-rupee sell-buy swaps to absorb surplus rupee liquidity from the banking system Monday.  

 

Forward premiums were under pressure due to a sharp rise in US Treasury yields. The 10-year US Treasury yield remained near multi-year peaks on Tuesday, driven by persistent geopolitical risks in energy markets and central bank hawkishness across major economies. 

 

The benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield held at 5.24%, its highest level since July 2007, while the long-dated 30-year Treasury yield hovered at 5.56%, consolidating around its highest level since 2004.

 

The one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium was 3.36%, lower than 3.51% at Monday's close. In absolute terms, the premium was 322.25 paise, compared with 337.00 paise Monday.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Cuts few losses on FX inflows, RBI dlr sales; high crude weighs

 

	AT 1230 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	96.0800	96.0550	96.0100	96.1500	95.9825

 

MUMBAI – The rupee reversed some losses as banks sold dollars, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India and foreign portfolio investors, dealers said. However, the rise in crude oil prices and US Treasury yields, along with dollar demand from importers, weighed on the Indian currency.

 

Foreign fund inflows into the currency market, as domestic and international passive funds reshuffle their equity portfolios to account for the latest semi-annual changes in the Nifty 50, Nifty Next 50, and other Nifty indices, supported the rupee, dealers said.

 

Meanwhile, the RBI also intervened mildly to contain market volatility and prevent any sharp movement in the rupee. "I don't think they (RBI) will target any particular level. 96.00 (a dollar) seems to be a comfortable level for them," a dealer at a private sector bank said. Dealers said the central bank has allowed the rupee to depreciate gradually, with the currency seeing a gap-down close of around 10 paise every week.

 

Banks also bought dollars actively on behalf of importers amid month-end payment obligations, triggering stop-losses on short-dollar bets. Importers are currently buying dollars on every dip in the dollar-rupee pair, which is preventing the rupee from rising beyond 96.00 per dollar, dealers said.

 

Brent crude oil extended its gains as ongoing uncertainty over US-Iran peace negotiations outweighed the resumption of supplies through Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline. At 1230 IST, Brent crude oil for November delivery was at $107.05 a barrel, up from $105.28 Monday. It had hit a high of $108.83 Monday.

 

The dollar index remained near a two-month high of 101.28, while the 10-year US Treasury yield rose to a two-decade high of 5.24%, as higher oil prices reinforced concern about inflation and tighter monetary policy.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in a range of 95.85-96.15 a dollar. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 96.15 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Sept 29

 

MUMBAI – At 1130 IST, the rupee was at 96.0600 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 96.0550 a dollar, against the previous close of 95.9825. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and a brokerage: 

 

Participant	S2	S1	R1	R2
Public-sector bank	96.25	96.15	95.90	95.80
Private-sector bank	96.30	96.15	95.90	95.80
Brokerage firm	96.22	96.10	95.90	95.70
Brokerage firm	96.20	96.15	95.95	95.85

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Mixed; Higher crude, dollar weigh; rupiah falls most

 

MUMBAI – Asian currencies traded mixed against the dollar in early trade Monday. However, crude oil prices, dollar index and US yields remain higher, which makes the external backdrop challenging for the Asian units. 

 

Brent Crude oil price extended its gains as ongoing uncertainty over US-Iran negotiations outweighed the resumption of oil flows through Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline. Saudi Arabia has reportedly restored oil flows to around 3.5 million barrels per day following repairs to a key pipeline that provides an alternative route around the Strait of Hormuz. At 0830 IST, Brent crude oil for November delivery was at $106.75 a barrel, up from $105.28 Monday. Brent crude oil had hit a high of $108.83 a barrel Monday.

 

The dollar index remained near a two-month high of 101.21, while the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to a two-decade high of 5.24%, as higher oil prices reinforced concerns over inflation and tighter monetary policy.

 

The South Korean won was broadly steady at 1358.75 a dollar from 1359.82 Monday. The Philippine peso was marginally up at 62.40 a dollar and the Chinese yuan also rose slightly to 6.70 a dollar Tuesday. 

 

The Indonesian rupiah fell 0.2% to 17990 a dollar, the most among the Asian peers. Taiwan dollar was also down 0.17% to 31.84 a dollar. Thai baht also fell marginally to 33.61 a dollar Tuesday. 

 

The Japanese yen was steady against the dollar at 157.40 per dollar as the Bank of Japan's July meeting minutes reinforced its hawkish policy shift. Many members said that underlying inflation was approaching 2%, with some arguing that hikes could proceed faster than the roughly six-month intervals expected by markets. Further hikes and intervention risk are likely to help contain yen weakness.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: At 2-month low as crude prices, US ylds rise; RBI limits fall

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	96.1400	96.0550	96.0550	96.1500	95.9825

 

MUMBAI – The Indian rupee breached the psychologically crucial level of 96 per dollar and hit a two-month low. This fall comes after almost two-week effort by the Reserve Bank of India to defend the currency against pressure from rising crude oil prices and surging US Treasury yields, dealers said.

 

However, dealers said that the RBI's mild dollar sales at around 96.15 a dollar limited sharp depreciation of the Indian unit. "If RBI lets rupee trade below 96 (a dollar) today, then this week rupee will stay below 96 level I think," a dealer at a public sector bank said. 

 

Banks also bought dollars actively on behalf of importers amid month-end payment obligations, leading to stop-losses being triggered on short dollar bets. Brent crude oil extended its gains as ongoing uncertainty over US-Iran negotiations outweighed the resumption of oil flows through Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline. At 0930 IST, Brent crude oil for November delivery was at $107.13 a barrel, up from $105.28 Monday. Brent crude had hit a high of $108.83 a barrel Monday.

 

The dollar index remained near a two-month high of 101.27, while the 10-year US Treasury yield rose to a two-decade high of 5.24%, as higher oil prices reinforced concern about inflation and tighter monetary policy.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in a range of 95.85-96.25 a dollar. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 96.25 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Sept 29

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Tuesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Public-sector bank	96.10	95.80
Private-sector bank	96.15	95.85
Private-sector bank	96.10	95.85
Private-sector bank	96.10	95.75
Foreign bank	96.25	95.85
Foreign bank	96.10	95.80
Brokerage firm	96.10	95.88

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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