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Informist, Tuesday, Sept. 29, 2026

 

MUMBAI – The ongoing El Nino event has strengthened to a near-record level and is likely to intensify further through the Southern Hemisphere spring, which spans from October to December, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said in its latest climate update. The event is likely to persist into the Southern Hemisphere autumn, which spans from March to May, given its current strength and typical life cycle. Both oceanic and atmospheric indices reflect values consistent with a strong El Nino, it said.

 

As of Sunday, the Nino 3.4 index was 2.72 degrees Celsius, well above the El Nino threshold of 0.80 degrees Celsius. The reading was the second-highest recorded in the bureau's weekly sea surface temperature data since 2008, within touching distance of the peak of 2.76 degrees Celsius for the week ended Nov. 22, 2015.

 

All international climate models, including that of the Australian bureau, forecast the tropical Pacific Ocean to continue warming through the Southern Hemisphere spring, with the event likely to peak in late spring or summer. Most models indicate the Nino3.4 index could exceed 3 degrees Celsius, with forecasts suggesting values above the warmest observed since reliable records began in 1950, the bureau said.

 

The Southern Oscillation Index, the measure of the atmospheric component of El Nino, remains strongly negative. The latest 30-day Southern Oscillation Index was (-)20.5 as of Sunday, significantly below the El Nino threshold of (-)7. Trade winds have weakened or reversed across parts of the western and central tropical Pacific, while cloud cover has increased over the central and eastern Pacific and declined over the Maritime Continent.

 

El Nino-Southern Oscillation refers to the recurring changes between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the tropical Pacific. El Nino can influence India's weather by increasing the risk of hotter and drier conditions, while La Nina is generally associated with more favourable rainfall.

 

The Indian Ocean Dipole remains officially neutral, although its index rose to 0.76 degrees Celsius in the week ended Sunday, staying above the positive threshold of 0.4 degrees Celsius for a third consecutive week. However, the index is required to remain above the threshold for a sustained period before confirming a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event.

 

A positive Indian Ocean Dipole could emerge during the Southern Hemisphere spring and continue into early summer, although most climate models indicate that there is uncertainty over how strong and long-lasting the event will be, the bureau said.

 

The Indian Ocean Dipole measures the difference in sea surface temperatures between the western and eastern tropical Indian Ocean. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole is generally associated with favourable rainfall conditions over India and can offset some of the rainfall impact of El Nino on the Southwest monsoon.

 

Sea surface temperatures globally also remained at record highs. In August, average sea surface temperatures between 60 degrees south and 60 degrees north were 1.04 degrees Celsius above the 1961-1990 average, making it the warmest August since records began in 1900, the bureau said.  End

 

Reported by Somen Bose

Edited by Himanshi Gupta

 

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