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Informist, Monday, Sept. 28, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell against the dollar Monday, but remained above the psychologically crucial level of 96.00 a dollar, as the Reserve Bank of India interevened through public sector bank, dealers said. However, the rupee was under pressure due to a sharp rise in crude oil prices and active dollar demand from importers, they said. 

 

"Most currencies are down. Now the RBI doesn't have any option but to let the rupee fall gradually, while defending it to an extent. It looks like they are ready to use their huge forex reserves for that," a dealer at a private sector bank said.    

 

The rupee settled at 95.9825 a dollar Monday, down from 95.8150 a dollar Friday. The rupee moved in a narrow range of range of 10 paise during the day. Other Asian currencies also fell against the dollar, with the Thai baht being the worst performer, followed by the South Korean won. 

 

The rupee opened on a weaker note and fell further quickly as the market remained pessimistic about the US and Iran reaching an agreement anytime soon after US President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

 

With the proposal turned down, concerns about supply disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz have intensified again, raising concerns about the potential impact on global energy supplies. At 1530 IST, Brent crude oil for November delivery was at $108.63 a barrel, up from $104.32 a barrel Friday. The rupee hit a low of 95.9900 Monday. 

 

"Crude was up, and so was dollar index. The rupee did not have any supporting factor. Post market hours, the rupee fell to 96.00 (a dollar), so it will definitely open past that level tomorrow," a dealer at a foreign bank said.

 

The 10-year US Treasury yield stood at 5.23% Monday, the highest since June 2007. The rise in oil prices alongside higher long-term yields suggests markets are attaching a larger inflation risk to the global outlook. 

 

The dollar index climbed to around 101.1 on Monday, hovering at two-month highs on expectations of further tightening by the Federal Reserve to contain inflation and increased safe-haven demand for the greenback. At 1530 IST, the dollar index was at 101.14, against 101.04 Friday.

 

Banks also bought dollars for importers actively amid their month-end payment obligations, and for foreign portfolio investors, which further added to the pressure. The Nifty 50 and Sensex fell 1.5?ch Monday. 

 

However, defying all negative factors, the RBI sold dollars and strongly defended the Indian unit. The central bank has been keeping the rupee from falling to 96.00 per dollar, making it a crucial level for traders. "I think the RBI will keep defending the rupee actively till next week till the MPC (monetary policy meeting)," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

India's foreign exchange reserves fell to a three-week low of $765.90 billion as of Sept. 18, down $14.88 billion during the week — the sharpest weekly fall since November 2024. The decline was largely due to a fall in foreign currency assets, which stood at $630.98 billion. The drop in foreign currency assets indicates that the RBI may have used foreign exchange swaps to defend the rupee and absorb surplus liquidity from the banking system.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.9825	95.8800	95.8800	95.9900	95.8125
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	337.0	326.50	337.50	326.50	329.52

 

FORWARDS

The dollar-rupee forward premium jumped across tenures as the RBI likely conducted dollar-rupee sell-buy swaps to absorb surplus rupee liquidity from the banking system, dealers said. The RBI is likely to have conducted foreign exchange swaps in tenures of up to one year. The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium hit a four-month high of 3.51% or 336.50 paise Monday. The one-month dollar-rupee forward premium rose over 100 basis points to 4.69%, the highest since Apr. 7.  

 

The central bank has been conducting dollar-rupee sell-buy swaps for more than two weeks straight. 

 

Dollar-rupee forward premiums also got support as banks bought forward dollars for importers, noting a sharp rise in crude oil prices, they said. 

 

The one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium was 3.51%, higher than Friday's close of 3.43%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 337.00 paise, against 329.52 paise Friday.

 

OUTLOOK 

On Tuesday, the rupee will continue to take cues from movements in crude oil prices amid evolving developments in West Asia, dealers said. Most dealers expect the Indian unit to cross 96 a dollar Tuesday as Brent crude prices rise further. 

 

The Indian currency will also continue to take cues from movement in the dollar index, they said. Traders remain cautious ahead of the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee meeting scheduled for Oct 5-7. The market expects the panel to hike the repo rate by 25 basis points to 50 basis points to contain inflation pressures.

 

Dealers see strong technical support for the Indian currency at 96.10 per dollar. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 95.90-96.20 against the dollar Tuesday.

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India Rupee - World FX: Yen up on intervention fears; dlr index remains firm

 

	AT 1409 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3265	1.3272	1.3224	1.3250
EUR/USD	1.1377	1.1394	1.1371	1.1391
NZD/USD	0.5663	0.5674	0.5650	0.5661
AUD/USD	0.7018	0.7029	0.7007	0.7031
USD/JPY	156.7230	157.8540	156.5100	157.2700
USD/CAD	1.4157	1.4165	1.4138	1.4144
EUR/JPY	178.3010	179.7210	178.1950	179.2082
CHF/USD	1.2029	1.2079	1.2025	1.2062
EUR/CHF	0.9457	0.9461	0.9420	0.9443

 

MUMBAI – The Japanese yen was up 0.2% against the dollar Monday as Japan's top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura said markets should take at face value the "very ‌clear" message Tokyo and Washington delivered last week on the Yen, signalling his resolve to act against excessive fall in the currency. Last week, Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said that US President Donald Trump expressed concern over the Yen's weakness during his meeting with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi in New York in regard to US-Japan joint intervention that took place on Jul. 31. Katayama added, "The principles since the previous joint intervention remain alive."

 

On the economic data front, investors keenly await the Tokyo Consumer Price Index data for September, which will be published on Friday. The CPI report is expected to show that inflation, ex-fresh food, accelerated to 2.4% on year from the previous reading of 1.8%, according to an FX Street poll. 
 

The pound sterling was also up 0.2% against the dollar. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said on Friday that persistently high energy prices would make it harder for the central bank to leave interest rates on hold. 

 

The dollar index also remained firm as Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Anna Paulson suggested further rate increases might be warranted. Reflecting these shifts, the CME FedWatch Tool now indicates a greater than 70% probability of a rate hike at the October Federal Reserve meeting, up from 57.6% last week and 17.7% a month ago. At 1529 IST, the dollar index was at 101.11, slightly up from 101.04 Friday. 

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India Rupee: 1-year premium at 4-month high on RBI's likely FX swaps

 

	AT 1345 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.9550	95.8800	95.8800	95.9850	95.8125
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	336.50	326.50	337.50	326.50	329.52

 

MUMBAI –  The dollar-rupee forward premium jumped across tenures as the RBI likely conducted dollar-rupee sell-buy swaps to absorb surplus rupee liquidity from the banking system, dealers said. The RBI is likely to have conducted foreign exchange swaps in tenures of up to one year. The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium hit a four-month high of 3.51% or 336.50 paise Monday. The one-month dollar-rupee forward premium rose over 100 basis points to 4.69%, the highest since Apr. 7.  

 

"The RBI doesn't have many options left. They have to defend the rupee and also trim the surplus liquidity. So, they are doing swaps, but in a very small quantums," a dealer at a private sector bank said. The central bank has been conducting a dollar-rupee sell-buy swap for more than two weeks straight. 

 

Dollar-rupee forward premiums also got support as banks bought forward dollars for importers, noting a sharp rise in crude oil prices, they said. At 1330 IST, Brent crude oil for November delivery was at $106.72 a barrel, up from $104.32 a barrel Friday. 

 

The one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium was 3.51%, higher than Friday's close of 3.43%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 336.50 paise, against 329.52 paise Friday.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee:Stays above 96/$ on RBI intervention; higher crude puts pressure

 

	AT 1200 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.9550	95.8800	95.8800	95.9850	95.8125

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell sharply against the dollar as banks bought the greenback for importers amid higher crude oil prices, dealers said. However, the Reserve Bank of India prevented the rupee from breaching the psychologically crucial 96.00-per-dollar level, even as the currency hovered near 95.97 Monday. The central bank has actively defended the 96.00 level for nearly two weeks, making it a key level for traders.

 

"The RBI is in the driving seat now. Even if crude jumps to $110 a barrel, I think the RBI will defend the rupee and will not allow a sharp depreciation," a dealer at a public sector bank said.

 

India's foreign exchange reserves fell to a three-week low of $765.90 billion as of Sept. 18, down $14.88 billion during the week— the sharpest weekly fall since November 2024. The decline was largely due to a fall in foreign currency assets, which stood at $630.98 billion. The drop in foreign currency assets indicates that the RBI may have used foreign exchange swaps to defend the rupee and absorb surplus liquidity from the banking system.

 

US President Donald Trump said on Saturday that Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restart talks on the nuclear programme within seven days was unacceptable, raising concerns about supply disruptions and global energy flows. Brent crude oil futures for November delivery were at $106.82 a barrel at 1230 IST, compared with $104.32 on Friday.

 

The 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 5.21%, its highest level in 19 years, reinforcing expectations of further rate hikes and weighing on the rupee, dealers said.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in a range of 95.80-95.98 a dollar. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 95.98 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Sept 28

 

MUMBAI – At 1117 IST, the rupee was at 95.9600 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 95.8800 a dollar, against the previous close of 95.8125. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and a brokerage: 

 

Participant	S2	S1	R1	R2
Public-sector bank	96.15	96.00	95.75	95.70
Private-sector bank	96.10	95.96	95.80	95.70
Foreign bank	96.00	95.95	95.75	95.65
Brokerage firm	96.15	96.05	95.75	95.65

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Falls as crude oil above $106/bbl, US yields rise

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.9350	95.8800	95.8800	95.9400	95.8125

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell slightly against the dollar Monday as crude oil prices remained elevated after US President Donald Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the seven-month-long war. 

 

With the proposal turned down, concerns over supply disruption risks around the Strait of Hormuz intensified again, raising concern about the potential impact on global energy supplies. At 0930 IST, Brent crude oil for November delivery was at $106.35 a barrel, up from $104.32 a barrel Friday.

 

"Everything will depend on crude oil prices now. If the crude moves up sharply further, the rupee will fall past 96.00 (a dollar). But, that's the worst case scenario, because the RBI has been continuously intervening at that level," a dealer at a public sector bank said. 

 

The 10-year US Treasury yield stood at 5.21% Monday, the highest since June 2007. The rise in oil prices alongside higher long-term yields suggests markets are attaching a larger inflation risk to the global outlook. 

 

Dealers expect importers to buy dollars actively due to their month-end payment obligation, which may put pressure on the Indian unit during the day. For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen in a range of 95.80-95.97 a dollar. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 96.00 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Sept 28

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Monday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Public-sector bank	96.00	95.60
Private-sector bank	95.96	95.70
Private-sector bank	95.96	95.75
Private-sector bank	95.95	95.75
Foreign bank	95.95	95.80
Brokerage firm	96.00	95.75
Brokerage firm	96.00	95.65

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Down on higher crude, US ylds; Thai baht hit most

 

MUMBAI – Asian currencies fell against the dollar as crude oil prices rose above $106 per barrel Monday after US President Donald Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The Thai baht led the losses among the Asian peers and fell 0.45% to 33.52 a dollar. The Thai baht hit its lowest level since Jul. 30 in early trade Monday.  

 

With Trump rejecting the proposal, concern over supply disruption risks around the Strait of Hormuz intensified again, raising concerns over the potential impact on global energy supplies. At 0820 IST, Brent crude oil for November delivery was at $106.31 a barrel, up from $104.32 a barrel Friday.

 

The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 157.67 a dollar as Bank of Japan policymakers saw the need to focus on mounting inflation risks, with some calling for the need to increase interest rates at a faster pace, minutes of ‌their July meeting showed. The service producer price index, which tracks the prices that companies charge each other for services, rose 3.7% in August from a year earlier after a 3.6% gain in July, data from the Bank of Japan showed.

 

The South Korean won also fell slightly to 1,357.38 a dollar, reversing gains after a sharp rebound, as elevated US Treasury yields lifted the dollar. The US 10-year Treasury yield hovered near its highest level since June 2007, while hawkish Federal Reserve comments reinforced expectations for further policy tightening.  

 

The Taiwan dollar fell 0.25% to 31.78 per dollar, while the Philippine peso and Chinese yuan were broadly steady at 62.45 and 6.70 a dollar, respectively.  (Divya Moolayattil)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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