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Informist, Wednesday, Sept. 23, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell against the dollar Wednesday as importers bought the greenback actively, dealers said. However, the fall in the rupee was limited as the price of Brent crude oil remained below $100 per barrel for the second day and the Reserve Bank of India sold dollars, they said. 

 

"Crude prices did not move much and there was no major developements in West Asia," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "Today (Wednesday), the active importers' dollar purchase decided the movement of the rupee." 

 

The rupee settled at 95.7400 a dollar, against Tuesday's close of 95.5900 per dollar. The rupee moved in a narrow range of 19 paise during the day. Other Asian currencies were mixed, with the Indonesian rupiah emerging as the best performer and the South Korean won being the worst.

 

The rupee was broadly steady against the dollar as crude oil prices remained near $98 per barrel and there were no major triggers on the West Asia front, dealers said. Crude oil prices fell sharply Tuesday after reports that Saudi Arabia was testing a critical East-West pipeline damaged in attacks by an Iran-backed militia over a week ago, with resumption of the pipeline likely this week.

 

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said at the UN in New York that US officials had a "very good" three-hour meeting with Iranian leaders, with another meeting scheduled in the "very near future". An Iranian official also confirmed the statement, which further pushed crude oil prices down. At 1530 IST, Brent crude oil for October delivery was priced at $98.95 per barrel against $99.25 Wednesday. Last week, the commodity was at a high of $109 per barrel.

 

Banks bought dollars during the day on behalf of importers, noting lower crude oil prices and lower dollar-rupee levels, which weighed on the Indian currency and snapped its four-day winning streak, dealers said. But the RBI sold dollars at multiple levels, preventing the rupee from falling below 95.75 a dollar. The support from the central bank was "very mild", dealers said. The RBI has been continuously supporting the rupee for two weeks, shielding it from global tensions and dollar demand.

 

The dollar index steadied near a two-month high on prospects of interest rate hikes in the near term, weighing on the rupee. At 1530 IST, the dollar index was at 100.85, up from 100.55 Tuesday. Market focus remains on China's President Xi Jinping's meeting with Trump Thursday.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.7400	95.5650	95.5650	95.7575	95.5900
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	309.67	302.67	310.59	302.33	301.38

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium rose Wednesday as the Reserve Bank of India likely conducted sell-buy swaps for maturity in 3-4 months to absorb surplus rupee liquidity from the banking system, dealers said. The RBI has been aggressively carrying out foreign exchange swaps, but it toned down the swaps this week as the liquidity surplus fell about 40% from its record high of INR 11.16 trillion earlier this month. The RBI's net liquidity absorbed -- a proxy for the banking system liquidity surplus -- fell further to INR 4.44 trillion Tuesday from INR 4.92 trillion Monday.

 

Dollar-rupee forward premiums also got support across tenures as banks bought forward dollars for importers, who wanted to make the most of the relatively lower dollar-rupee levels in early trade, they said. The one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium was 3.21%, higher than Tuesday's close of 3.15%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 309.67 paise, against 301.38 paise Tuesday.

 

OUTLOOK

Thursday, the rupee is likely to track the movement in crude oil price amid signs of positive developments in connection with the war in West Asia, dealers said. The domestic currency will also continue to take cues from movement in the dollar index as markets expect an interest rate hike in the near term, they said.

 

The market awaits developments from China's President Xi Jinping summit with Trump, which could decide the rupee's movement. Amid global uncertainty, dealers expect importers to keep buying dollars, weighing on the rupee. However, they also expect the RBI to keep actively intervening in the market to defend the currency. 

 

"The rupee continues to hover in the 95.60–95.95 zone, with persistent FII (foreign institutional investor) selling in Indian markets keeping sentiment cautious. Going ahead, US-Iran developments, Xi Jinping's US visit and UN meeting updates could keep currency markets volatile," Jateen Trivedi, vice-president and research analyst, commodity and currency, at LKP Securities, said in a note. 

 

Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 95.80 per dollar. The rupee is expected to move in the range of 95.50-95.80 per dollar Thursday.

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India Rupee - World FX: Dollar index at 2-month high on rate hike bets

 

	AT 1400 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3307	1.3345	1.3294	1.3342
EUR/USD	1.1421	1.1450	1.1410	1.1448
NZD/USD	0.5701	0.5730	0.5696	0.5724
AUD/USD	0.7085	0.7117	0.7080	0.7117
USD/JPY	157.8050	157.8550	157.3490	157.3760
USD/CAD	1.4084	1.4092	1.4063	1.4058
EUR/JPY	180.2320	180.3830	180.0280	180.1600
CHF/USD	1.2159	1.2191	1.2147	1.2184
EUR/CHF	0.9393	0.9402	0.9387	0.9392

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index steadied near its strongest level in two months on Wednesday on prospects of interest rate hikes by Federal Reserve in the near term. Traders see 53% probability of a rate hike at the October meeting, compared to just 8.8% probability a month ago. At 1400 IST, the dollar index, which measures the greenback against six currencies, was at 100.83, up from 100.55 Tuesday. 

The euro was at $1.1412, near its weakest level since late July, as markets bet against the currency on hopes of a rate hike by the Fed. The pound sterling was also down 0.4% at $1.330 Wednesday. 

 

The Japanese yen extended losses for the fourth consecutive day and fell 0.3% to 157.83 per dollar. Following last week's Bank of Japan meeting, which delivered a less hawkish tone than markets had expected, prospects for an interest rate hike in Japan in October declined. 

The Canadian dollar fell 0.2% to 1.4091 per US dollar. The Australian dollar was down 0.45% against the dollar Wednesday.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Premiums rise on RBI's FX sell-buy swap, importers' purchase

 

--Dealers: RBI likely conducting FX sell-buy swaps in near-term tenures 
--Dealers: RBI likely buying forward dollars to drain excess rupee liquidity 

 

	AT 1240 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.7375	95.5650	95.5650	95.6200	95.5900
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	306.41	302.67	308.75	302.33	301.38

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium rose Wednesday as the Reserve Bank of India likely conducted sell-buy swaps for maturity in three to four months to absorb surplus rupee liquidity from the banking system, dealers said.

 

The RBI has been agressively doing foreign exchange swaps, but it toned down the swaps this week as liquidity surplus fell about 40% from its record high of INR 11.16 trillion earlier this month. The surplus has fallen on all sessions since Sept. 13, barring a marginal rise Sunday. The RBI's net liquidity absorbed – a proxy for the banking system liquidity surplus – fell further to INR 4.44 trillion Tuesday from INR 4.92 trillion Monday. 

 

Under a sell-buy swap, the RBI sells dollars for immediate delivery and simultaneously buys them for delivery at maturity, thereby absorbing rupee liquidity from the banking system. 

 

Dollar-rupee forward premiums also got support across tenures as banks bought forward dollars for importers, who wanted to make most of the relatively lower dollar-rupee levels in early trade, they said. The rupee opened at 95.5650 a dollar in the spot market, but erased all gains on importers' strong dollar demand. 

 

The one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium was 3.18%, higher than Tuesday's close of 3.15%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 306.41 paise, against 301.38 paise Tuesday.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Down on importers demand; RBI dlr sales, lower crude limit fall

 

	AT 1230 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.7200	95.5650	95.5650	95.7350	95.5900

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell against the dollar Wednesday as banks stepped up dollar purchases for importers, taking advantage of relatively lower dollar-rupee levels in early trade, dealers said. "There are a lot of bids coming in. We are seeing importers actions now. Buy on dips is their strategy," a dealer at a private sector bank said.

 

However, banks sold dollars on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India at multiple levels, limiting the rupee's fall, dealers said. The central bank has been supporting the Indian unit for nearly two weeks and has been draining rupee liquidity through dollar sales. Dealers do not expect the rupee to fall beyond 95.80 a dollar, as they expect the RBI to intervene aggressively to protect the level.

 

Lower crude oil prices supported the rupee, dealers said. Brent crude oil prices fell on optimism over improving supply after media reports said Saudi Arabia was testing a critical East-West pipeline damaged in attacks by Iran-backed Houthi militia over a week ago, with a possible restart this week.

 

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said US officials had a "very good" three-hour meeting with Iranian leaders, with another meeting scheduled in the "very near future." At 1230 IST, Brent crude oil for November delivery was at $98.32 a barrel, down from $99.25 Tuesday.

 

The dollar index steadied near a two-month high on prospects of interest rate hikes in the near term, weighing on the rupee. Market focus remains on Chinese President Xi Jinping's meeting with Trump Thursday.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 95.50-95.80 a dollar. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 95.80 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Sept 23

 

MUMBAI – At 1115  IST, the rupee was at 95.6725 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 95.5650 a dollar, against the previous close of 95.5900. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and a brokerage: 

 

Participant	S2	S1	R1	R2
Public-sector bank	95.80	95.70	95.50	95.40
Private-sector bank	95.83	95.75	95.40	95.33
Foreign bank	95.75	95.70	95.55	95.35
Brokerage firm	95.85	95.70	95.50	95.35

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Steady as crude oil inches down; importers' demand may weigh

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.6075	95.5650	95.5650	95.6200	95.5900

 

MUMBAI – The rupee was steady against the dollar as crude oil prices inched down after a sharp fall Tuesday on report that Saudi Arabia was close to restarting a critical pipeline damaged in attacks by Iranian-backed Houthi militia over a week ago. 

 

However, dealers said the importers' dollar demand during the day could exert pressure on the rupee. "Today, there will be quite a range as flows will decide the movement of currency and liquidity is thin. Importers are not decisive as there is no clarity on the West Asia situation now," a dealer at a public sector bank said. "If Brent crosses 100 ($/ barrel), the rupee will definitely reverse gains."

 

Brent crude oil for November delivery was $98.56 per barrel, down from $99.25 Tuesday. Brent crude oil prices had slumped from a high of $102 a barrel Tuesday on de-escalation in tensions in West Asia. President Donald Trump said that US officials had a "very good" three-hour meeting with Iranian leaders, with another meeting scheduled in the "very near future." 

 

Dealers expect importers to purchase dollars actively on any major developments around the West Asia war, which will weigh on the Indian unit during the day, dealers said. Foreign portfolio outflows are also expected to put pressure on the currency.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 95.40-95.80. Dealers see immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 95.50 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Sept 23

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Wednesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Private-sector bank	95.75	95.50
Private-sector bank	95.80	95.50
Private-sector bank	95.80	95.40
Foreign bank	95.70	95.35
Foreign bank	95.90	95.60
Brokerage firm	95.70	95.40
Brokerage firm	95.70	95.45

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most steady as crude below $99/bbl; strong dlr weighs

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies were broadly steady against the dollar Wednesday as crude oil prices fell sharply in the previous session on reports that Saudi Arabia was close to restarting a critical pipeline damaged in attacks by Iranian-backed Houthi militia over a week ago. At 0830 IST, Brent crude oil for November delivery was at $98.81 per barrel, down from $99.25 Tuesday.

 

However, the dollar remained firm on prospects of interest rate hikes in the near term, which limited the gains of the Asian units. At 0830 IST, the dollar index was 100.67, up from 100.55 Tuesday. 

 

The Philippine peso and Taiwan dollar were steady against the dollar at 62.55 and 31.68 per dollar, respectively. The Chinese yuan was also marginally up at 6.70 per dollar Wednesday. 

 

However, the Thai baht fell sharply by 0.2% to 33.18 per dollar, snapping a two-day winning streak. Meanwhile, the South Korean won jumped 0.3% to 1351.38 per dollar on lower crude oil prices and strong export data, including a surge in semiconductor shipments.  (Divya Moolayattil)  End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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