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Informist, Tuesday, Sept. 22, 2026

By Divya Moolayattil

MUMBAI – The rupee is expected to rise marginally against the dollar Tuesday as crude oil prices retreated from the high of $109 a barrel seen in the previous week and traded near $100 per barrel, dealers said. However, demand for dollar from oil marketing companies and other importers are likely to put pressure on the Indian unit during the day.

The rupee is expected to open around 95.72 a dollar and move in a range of 95.65-95.90 against the dollar during the day after closing at 95.8150 Monday. "The rupee is likely to be range bound today, with bias towards 95.65 (a dollar)," Ritesh Bhansali, Deputy CEO at Mecklai Financial Services Ltd., said. "Crude has come down from 108 to 100 ($/barrel), so we might see a positive impact in rupee with a lag along with inflows towards IPO." 

Dealers expect the Reserve Bank of India to continue to support the local unit through dollar sales and limit pressure on the rupee. Dealers estimate the RBI sold around $7 million-$8 million in the previous week defending the rupee. 

Brent crude traded near $100 per barrel Tuesday after falling for four consecutive sessions due to the easing supply concern in the West Asia and growing diplomatic efforts to end the US-Iran war. At 0730 IST, Brent crude oil for November delivery was $101.05 a barrel, up from $100.34 a barrel Monday.

US President Donald Trump is scheduled to address the UN General Assembly in New York later in the day and could meet Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on the sidelines. Trump is also expected to hold discussions with other Gulf nations and Chinese President Xi Jinping this week. Dealers said that this week could be critical for the foreign exchange market as many world leaders meet. 

Meanwhile, the Trump administration proposed a $5 billion fund to help rebuild infrastructure across West Asia damaged by the war.  

Dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars actively at every dollar-rupee dip, which may weigh on the Indian unit. Strong foreign portfolio outflows from domestic markets is also likely to weigh on the Indian currency, dealers said. FPIs have net sold $2.35 billion in equities and debt markets so far in September, compared with net investment of $1.87 billion in August.

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium is expected to rise slightly Tuesday as US Treasury yields came off its highs as oil prices eased amid fading supply concerns. 

Dealers expect the RBI to continue holding dollar-rupee sell-buy swaps in order to drain surplus rupee liquidity from the banking system, which may also support premiums. 

On an annualised basis, the premium on the one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward contract is seen at 3.24-3.30% Tuesday. Monday, it settled at 3.24%. On an absolute basis, the premium ended at 310.61 paise.

End

US$1 = INR 95.8125

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

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