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Informist, Friday, Sept. 18, 2026

 

By Kabir Sharma

 

MUMBAI – The rupee ended higher against the dollar on Friday, supported by a fall in crude oil prices and state-owned banks' dollar sales on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, dealers said. Banks' dollar purchases for importers and a firm dollar index weighed on the local unit, they said. 

 

"There was some relief from the ease in crude and the inflows for IPOs, but overall, the macro remains against rupee," a dealer at a private bank said. "As soon as the RBI lets go, it will cross 96 (a dollar)," he said. 

 

After rising to a high of 95.7075 a dollar in early trade, the Indian unit settled at 95.8700 a dollar Friday, higher than 95.9300 Thursday. The rupee traded in a narrow range of 19 paise throughout the day. Other Asian currencies also firmed up against the dollar, rising 0.1-0.5%.

 

Brent crude oil prices fell nearly 2% to around $102.50 a barrel after reports that Saudi Arabia had begun restoring its damaged east-west oil pipeline and tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz continued. At 1549 IST, Brent crude oil futures for November delivery were at $103.18 a barrel, down from $104.82 a barrel Thursday and $105.83 a barrel Wednesday.

 

Dollar sales by the central bank also limited losses for the rupee, dealers said. The RBI has been actively intervening in the currency market, both in spot and forwards, dealers said. Dealers estimate the central bank has sold $7 billion-$8 billion this week to defend the domestic unit. 

 

Dealers said inflows into Indian equities for initial public offerings also supported the local unit. The National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. raised INR 67.46 billion from anchor investors by allotting 37.79 million equity shares at INR 1,785 apiece, the upper end of the price band. The offer opened for subscription Thursday and will close Monday. The IPO was fully subscribed on day two, with the company getting offers for 89.5 million shares. 

 

The rupee fell from the day's low touched in early trade as importers rushed to stock up on the local unit, citing attractive dollar/rupee levels, dealers said. A firm dollar also continued to weigh on the local unit, they said. The dollar held near a seven-week high after the US Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 25 basis points Wednesday and signalled that another increase could be possible this year.

 

Higher US Treasury yields have strengthened the appeal of the greenback and weighed on Asian currencies. Regional currencies had broadly declined 0.1-0.6% Thursday as higher US yields and a stronger dollar weighed on sentiment. The dollar index also firmed up as the yen weakened after the Bank of Japan delivered on expected lines and raised interest rates by 25 basis points. The BoJ hike has pushed the interest rate to 1.25%, the highest since 1995. At 1554 IST, the dollar index was at 100.35, broadly steady from 100.24 Thursday.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.8725	95.7125	95.7075	95.9050	95.9300
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	317.53	322.03	323.03	316.19	323.73

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium fell on Friday due to banks' dollar sales for forward delivery, noting the relatively higher levels, dealers said. Forward dollar sales outweighed the impact of the Reserve Bank of India's likely sell-buy swaps. The one-year forward premium has jumped almost 50 basis points so far this month, with the premium hitting a four-month-high Thursday.

 

The central bank likely bought forward dollars for maturity in September 2027 to drain excess rupee liquidity from the banking system, dealers said. This was the RBI's seventh consecutive trading day of holding sell-buy swaps in the forwards market, as per dealers. Under a sell-buy swap, the RBI sells dollars for immediate delivery and simultaneously buys them for delivery at maturity, thereby absorbing rupee liquidity from the banking system. 

 

The RBI's net liquidity absorbed – a proxy for the banking system liquidity surplus – was INR 6.94 trillion Thursday, down from INR 7.38 trillion Wednesday. The RBI has also been almost regularly conducting variable rate reverse repo auctions to absorb surplus liquidity from the banking system.

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year forward premium was 3.31%, lower than 3.37% Thursday. On an absolute basis, the one-year exact-period forward premium was 317.53 paise, against 323.73 paise Thursday.

 

OUTLOOK

The forex market is shut on Saturdays. On Monday, the rupee will track crude oil prices amid evolving developments in the war between the US and Iran, dealers said. The Indian unit is also likely to track the dollar index as traders assess the US Fed's future interest rate path.

 

Dealers expect importers to keep buying dollars amid global uncertainty, weighing on the rupee. However, looking at the recent intervention pattern of the central bank, they expect the RBI to keep actively intervening in the market to defend the currency. "Looking ahead, the spot USD/INR pair is expected to consolidate its range, reacting closely to incoming global headlines and crude oil price movements," Dilip Parmar, senior research analyst, HDFC Securities, said in a note.

 

Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 96.10 per dollar. The rupee is expected to move in the range of 95.70-96.30 per dollar Monday.

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India Rupee - World FX: Yen slumps despite rate hike by BoJ, euro rises

 

	AT 1535 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3370	1.3376	1.3354	1.3356
EUR/USD	1.1485	1.1492	1.1475	1.1477
NZD/USD	0.5716	0.5740	0.5715	0.5730
AUD/USD	0.7126	0.7136	0.7109	0.7109
USD/JPY	157.8450	158.0650	155.8780	155.9460
USD/CAD	1.3998	1.4006	1.3977	1.3992
EUR/JPY	181.3020	181.5490	178.9361	179.0200
CHF/USD	1.2127	1.2158	1.2117	1.2117
EUR/CHF	0.9469	0.9477	0.9453	0.9456

 

NEW DELHI – The Japanese yen slumped 1.3% against the dollar to a two-week low as the Bank of Japan's decision to hike rates Friday was not unanimous, with two policy makers dissenting, making traders unsure about the likelihood of further hikes. Officials hiked interest rates to their highest level in 31 years at 1.25%. However, the move failed to boost the Japanese unit, likely because of the lack of outright hawkish guidance by the central bank. 

 

The pound sterling was up 0.1% against the dollar after data on Friday showed retail sales in the UK unexpectedly rose in August, further increasing pressure on the Bank of England to hike interest rates. Retail sales ‌volumes rose 0.5% from July, beating economists' forecast of a 0.2?ll in a Reuters poll. Compared with August last year, overall sales volumes were up 2.4%. The UK central bank kept rates on hold at 3.75% Thursday but said inflation would likely rise above 4?rly next year. 

 

The euro was up 0.1% against the greenback. A European Central Bank survey showed on Friday that euro zone consumers raised their inflation expectations last month, likely reflecting a fresh spike in fuel prices caused by the deepening conflict in West Asia. 

 

The Australian dollar was up 0.2% against the dollar after Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock said on Friday that some of the upside ‌risks to inflation flagged by policymakers appeared to be materialising. The New Zealand dollar was down 0.3% against the greenback. 

 

The dollar index rose slightly Friday, boosted by the US Federal Reserve's recent rate hike and signal of further tightening. The dollar index rose to 100.35 at 1535 IST from 100.24 on Thursday and 100.34 Wednesday. (Pratiksha) 

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India Rupee: Erases most gains on importers' dlr buys; RBI dlr sales support

 

--Dealers: Some PSU banks selling dollars, likely for RBI, around 95.90/$1 

--Dealers: Some PSU banks' dollar sales, likely for RBI, support rupee 

 

	AT 1340 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.8850	95.7125	95.7075	95.8925	95.9300
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	318.34	322.03	323.03	318.16	323.73

 

MUMBAI – The rupee erased most of its intraday gains as importers purchased dollars due to attractive dollar/rupee levels, dealers said. However, dealers said state-owned banks sold dollars on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, which limited losses for the local unit. 

 

"Oilers (oil importers) have rushed in, which was expected given the levels," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "They (RBI) are holding the other side and protecting 96," he said.

 

The RBI has been actively intervening in the currency market, both in spot and in forwards, dealers said. Dealers estimate the central bank has sold $7 billion-$8 billion in the current week to defend the domestic unit. 

 

A fall in crude oil prices also supported the rupee, dealers said. Brent crude oil prices fell nearly 2% to around $102.50 a barrel, after reports that Saudi Arabia had begun restoring its damaged east-west oil pipeline and tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz continued. At 1339 IST, Brent crude oil futures for November delivery were at $102.40 a barrel, down from $104.82 a barrel Thursday and $105.83 a barrel Wednesday.

 

The dollar index remained firm as the yen weakened after the Bank of Japan delivered on expected lines and raised interest rates by 25 basis points. The BoJ hike has pushed the interest rate to 1.25%, the highest since 1995. At 0825 IST, the dollar index was at 100.30, broadly steady from 100.24 Thursday.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 95.70-96.20. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 96.10 a dollar. (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Premium broadly steady; RBI's likely FX sell-buy swaps support

 

--Dealers: RBI likely conducting dlr-rupee sell-buy swaps maturing Sept 2027

--Dealers: RBI likely buying forward dollars to drain excess rupee liquidity

 

	AT 1155 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.7850	95.7125	95.7075	95.7875	95.9300
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	321.53	322.03	323.03	320.84	323.73

 

NEW DELHI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium was broadly steady as the impact of the Reserve Bank of India's likely sell-buy swaps was offset by banks' dollar sales for forward delivery, noting the relatively higher levels, dealers said. The one-year forward premium has jumped almost 50 basis points so far this month, with the premium hitting a four-month-high Thursday. 

 

"RBI was hitting the September 2027 tenure today, but we are seeing some receiving at these levels too," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "The moment RBI leaves the market, levels are sure to fall."

 

The central bank likely bought forward dollars for maturity in September 2027 to drain excess rupee liquidity from the banking system, dealers said. This was the RBI's seventh consecutive trading day of holding sell-buy swaps in the forwards market, as per dealers. Under a sell-buy swap, the RBI sells dollars for immediate delivery and simultaneously buys them for delivery at maturity, thereby absorbing rupee liquidity from the banking system. 

 

The RBI's net liquidity absorbed--a proxy for the banking system liquidity surplus--was INR 6.94 trillion Thursday, down from INR 7.38 trillion Wednesday. The RBI has also been almost regularly conducting variable rate reverse repo auctions to absorb surplus liquidity from the banking system.

 

At 1155 IST, the one-year forward premium was at 3.36%, broadly steady from 3.37% Thursday. On an absolute basis, the one-year exact-period forward premium was 321.53 paise, against 323.73 paise Thursday. (Pratiksha) 

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Sept 18

 

NEW DELHI – At 1120 IST, the rupee was at 95.7675 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 95.7125 a dollar, against the previous close of 95.9300. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and a brokerage: 

 

Participant	S2	S1	R1	R2
Private-sector bank	96.80	96.50	95.50	95.20
Private-sector bank	96.20	96.00	95.60	95.40
Brokerage firm	-	96.50	95.30	-
Brokerage firm	96.50	96.10	95.70	95.50

 

(Pratiksha and Kabir Sharma) 

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India Rupee: Rises on fall in crude prices, IPO linked FX inflows

 

	AT 0949 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.7375	95.7125	95.7075	95.7675	95.9300

 

MUMBAI – The rupee was higher against the dollar Friday on the back of a fall in crude oil prices and inflows for initial public offerings, dealers said. However, a firm dollar index continued to maintain pressure on the rupee, they said. 

 

"Crude has fallen which is a positive for the rupee, and there is a plethora of IPOs which is pumping dollars into the system," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "You can't just look at secondary stock market data where outflows are happening, FPI money is flowing from the secondary to the primary market, which supporting the rupee," he said. 

 

Brent crude oil prices fell over 1% to around $104.10 a barrel, after reports that Saudi Arabia had begun restoring its damaged East-West oil pipeline and tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz continued. At 0943 IST, Brent crude oil futures for November delivery were at $103.93 a barrel, down from $104.82 a barrel Thursday and $105.83 a barrel Wednesday.

 

Dealers said inflows into Indian equities for IPO were supporting the local unit. The National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. raised INR 67.46 billion from anchor investors by allotting 37.79 million equity shares at INR 1,785 apiece, the upper end of the price band. The offer opens for subscription Thursday and will close Monday. The exchange has cut the size of the offer for sale to 126.4 million shares from 148.9 million shares earlier. 

 

The dollar index remained firm as the yen weakened after the Bank of Japan delivered on expected lines and raised interest rates by 25 basis points. The BoJ hike has pushed the interest rate to 1.25%, the highest since 1995.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 95.70-96.20. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 96.10 a dollar. (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Mixed; Bank of Japan's 25 bps rate hike supports

 

MUMBAI – Asian currencies were mixed against the dollar Friday, with some units recovering after crude oil prices eased. A 25-basis-point rate hike by the Bank of Japan also supported Asian currencies. The BoJ hike has pushed the interest rate to 1.25%, the highest since 1995. The Malaysian ringgit, Indonesian rupiah, Thai baht, Taiwan dollar, and Chinese yuan gained against the greenback in early trade, while the South Korean won weakened.

 

The dollar held near a seven-week-high after the US Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 25 basis points Wednesday and signalled that another increase could be possible this year. Higher US Treasury yields have strengthened the appeal of the greenback and weighed on Asian currencies. Regional currencies had broadly declined 0.1-0.6% Thursday as higher US yields and a stronger dollar weighed on sentiment.

 

The Indonesian rupiah rose 0.14% against the dollar Friday, recovering from a 0.5?cline to a two-week-low Thursday. The Malaysian ringgit also gained, opening at 4.0955 per dollar compared with 4.0965 previously, as easing concerns over crude oil supplies improved risk sentiment. The South Korean won, however, remained vulnerable after falling to a three-week-low of 1,384.40 per dollar Thursday following the Fed's rate hike.

 

Meanwhile, Brent crude oil prices fell over 1% to around $104.10 a barrel, after reports that Saudi Arabia had begun restoring its damaged East-West oil pipeline and tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz continued. The decline in prices has provided some relief to Asian currencies, particularly those of major energy importers.  (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Sept 18

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Friday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Public-sector bank	96.50	95.50
Private-sector bank	96.10	95.60
Private-sector bank	96.20	95.70
Private-sector bank	96.15	95.65
Foreign bank	96.20	95.60
Brokerage firm	96.25	95.75
Brokerage firm	96.13	95.47

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Kabir Sharma)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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