More Stories

Informist, Thursday, Sept. 17, 2026

 

By Pratiksha

 

NEW DELHI – A strengthening dollar index notwithstanding, the rupee ended steady against the dollar, thanks to the Reserve Bank of India'a active intervention through dollar sales, dealers said. Banks' persistent dollar buys on behalf of importers also weighed on the Indian unit, they said. "The market was completely held by RBI. It was volatile but they did not let it (rupee) fall much," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. 

 

After falling to a low of 96.0925 a dollar in early trade, the Indian unit settled at 95.9300 a dollar Thursday, against 95.9550 Wednesday. Other Asian currencies fell 0.3-0.7% against the dollar, with the South Korean won being the worst hit. The Indian unit was one of the best performers among its emerging market peers. 

 

The Indian currency started the day broadly steady against the dollar as the central bank likely also intervened in the offshore non-deliverable forwards market before the spot market opened, dealers said. However, the Indian unit came under pressure shortly afterwards and fell below the psychologically crucial 96.00-per-dollar mark for the first time in over seven weeks, tracking a surge in the dollar index, dealers said.

 

The dollar index soared to a seven-week high after the US Federal Open Market Committee raised interest rates for the first time in over three years Wednesday. The 12-member panel voted unanimously to hike the Fed funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00% to curb inflation, which remains well above its target. 

 

The Summary of Economic Projections showed the median estimate of Fed officials was that the target rate would be raised by another 25 bps in the remainder of 2026. At 1530 IST, the dollar index was at 100.21, broadly steady from 100.34 Wednesday but sharply higher than 99.61 Tuesday. 

 

The central bank, however, marked its presence in the spot market as well, intervening at multiple levels through the day, dealers said. The RBI's intervention was aggressive in nature and helped the Indian unit stay above the 96.00 level for the rest of the day. The apex bank likely sold around $2 billion-$3 billion in the spot market Thursday, as per some dealers. The Indian currency rose to a high of 95.7825 a dollar during the day.

 

Banks persistently bought dollars on behalf of importers, noting the relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, which further weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. 

 

With the US central bank opening the doors to tighter monetary policy throughout the year, importers bought dollars, fearing further depreciation of the Indian unit going ahead, they added.

 

"The buying (of dollars) pressure was very much there," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "All the dips (in dollar-rupee) were bought. RBI may have to let the rupee go if this continues."

 

Meanwhile, the price of Brent crude oil fell, extending Wednesday's losses, as reports of Saudi Arabia offering ‌extra crude cargoes through Oman eased concerns around supply disruptions in West Asia. However, the Indian unit took only limited support from this decline as prices remained above the $100 a barrel level, dealers said. At 1530 IST, Brent crude oil futures for November delivery were at $103.81 a barrel, down from $105.83 a barrel Wednesday and $108.75 a barrel Tuesday. 

 

Sentiment among investors also dampened as the US House of Representatives late Wednesday passed a bill that looks to impose duties of up to 100% on India and other countries buying crude oil and natural gas from Russia. The Indian government Thursday warned Washington that new measures to levy tariffs over the purchase of Russian ‌oil could impact bilateral ties.

 

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.9300	95.9850	95.7825	96.0925	95.9550
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	323.73	317.44	323.73	317.44	322.44

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium ended at a four-month high Thursday as the Reserve Bank of India likely conducted dollar-rupee sell-buy swaps to drain excess rupee liquiduty from the system, dealers said. This was the RBI's sixth consecutive trading day of holding sell-buy swaps in the forwards market, as per dealers. The central bank likely bought forward dollars in two-, three- and 10-month tenures, they said.

 

Under a sell-buy swap, the RBI sells dollars for immediate delivery and simultaneously buys them for delivery at maturity, absorbing rupee liquidity from the banking system. The RBI's net liquidity absorbed – a proxy for the banking system liquidity surplus – was INR 7.38 trillion Wednesday, down from INR 9.85 trillion Tuesday.

 

Meanwhile, a rise in the 10-year benchmark US Treasury note to above 5% following the US Fed's rate hike, weighed on the premiums, dealers said. US central bank chief Kevin Warsh Wednesday said the rate hike was due to higher inflation and fuel prices stemming from the war in West Asia.

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year forward premium was at 3.37%, up from 3.34% Wednesday. On an absolute basis, the one-year exact-period forward premium was 323.73 paise, against 322.44 paise Wednesday.

 

OUTLOOK

On Friday, the rupee will track crude oil prices amid evolving developments in the war between the US and Iran, dealers said. The Indian unit is also likely to track the dollar index as traders assess the US Fed's future interest rate path. 

 

Amid global uncertainty, dealers expect importers to keep buying dollars, weighing on the rupee. However, looking at the recent intervention pattern of the central bank, they expect the RBI to keep actively intervening in the market to defend the currency. 

 

Market participants now await policy ‌decisions by the Bank of England later in the day and the Bank of Japan Friday. The Bank of England is expected to keep interest rates on hold while the Japanese central bank is expected to hike rates to a 31-year high and signal its readiness to keep pushing up borrowing costs. 

 

"The spot USD/INR pair remains in an overall upward trend following its recent surge, though we anticipate a period of short-term consolidation with key support around 95.45 and resistance capped at 96.30," Dilip Parmar – senior research analyst, HDFC Securities, said in a note. 

 

Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 96.10 per dollar. The rupee is expected to move in the range of 95.70-96.30 per dollar Friday.

---

India Rupee - World FX: Dlr up on Fed rate hike; yen firms ahead of BoJ meet

 

	AT 1513 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3397	1.3402	1.3369	1.3376
EUR/USD	1.1476	1.1484	1.1456	1.1463
NZD/USD	0.5737	0.5742	0.5710	0.5704
AUD/USD	0.7115	0.7121	0.7084	0.7086
USD/JPY	155.6350	156.3160	155.5270	156.2480
USD/CAD	1.3988	1.3999	1.3981	1.3987
EUR/JPY	178.6340	179.2486	178.4760	179.1110
CHF/USD	1.2112	1.2142	1.2098	1.2098
EUR/CHF	0.9474	0.9476	0.9456	0.9461

 

MUMBAI – The dollar firmed on Thursday after the Federal Open Market Committee raised interest rates by 25 basis points late Wednesday and signalled scope for further tightening, while the euro and pound sterling edged higher against the greenback Thursday. The Japanese yen strengthened as markets turned their attention to a possible rate hike by the Bank of Japan.

 

The Fed raised its target federal funds rate to 3.75–4.00%, its first rate increase in more than three years. The central bank's projections showed that most policymakers see scope for at least one more hike this year, reinforcing expectations of higher US yields and supporting the dollar. 

 

The dollar initially surged to a seven-week high, but subsequently pared gains as crude oil prices declined on reports of additional Saudi supply. Markets are also pricing a more aggressive US tightening path than indicated by the Fed's projections. At 1508 IST, the dollar index was at 100.30, broadly steady from 100.34 Wednesday but sharply higher than 99.61 Tuesday.

 

The euro recovered and was up 0.1% against the dollar, after falling sharply against the dollar following the Fed's decision. The currency remains sensitive to the widening monetary policy divergence between the US and eurozone, although expectations of tighter policy from other major central banks have limited the dollar's gains.

 

The pound sterling was also 0.1% higher against the dollar ahead of the Bank of England's policy decision. The central bank is widely expected to keep its policy rate unchanged, although persistent inflation in the UK and higher energy costs have increased expectations that the central bank may need to maintain a tighter policy stance. Inflation in the UK rose to 3.1% in August. 

 

The yen was the strongest mover among major currencies, rising 0.4% against the dollar, as investors positioned for the Bank of Japan's policy decision. The Japanese central bank is expected to raise its policy rate, potentially to its highest level in about three decades, increasing demand for the yen and raising the prospect of repatriation of funds invested overseas. 

 

The dollar's post-Fed gains moderated as markets weighed the prospect of further US rate hikes against possible tightening by other major central banks. Falling oil prices also reduced some of the safe-haven support for the greenback stemming from the ongoing West Asia conflict. (Kabir Sharma)

---

India Rupee: Erases gains on importers' dlr buys; RBI's dlr sales support

 

	AT 1358 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.9125	95.9850	95.7825	96.0925	95.9550
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	322.73	317.44	323.06	317.44	322.44

 

MUMBAI – The rupee erased gains against the dollar as importers rushed to stock up on the greenback after dollar sales from state-owned banks on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India pulled the Indian unit above 96/$ earlier in the day, dealers said. The rupee had fallen sharply after the Federal Open Market Committee opted for an interest rate hike late Wednesday, they said. 

 

"Importers are buying at any level above 96/$ right now because only RBI is holding it there," a dealer at a private bank said. "Once they (RBI) let go, it won't stop before 96.20," he said. 

 

The Indian unit fell below the key level for the first time in over seven weeks as the dollar index jumped after the US Federal Open Market Committee raised interest rates by 25 basis points, they said. The rupee hit a low of 96.0925 in early trade. 

 

Dealers said they expect the RBI to continue actively intervening in the market throughout the day. Dealers also expect inflows from the intital public offering of National Stock Exchange to support the Indian unit. 

 

The National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. raised INR 67.46 billion from anchor investors by allotting 37.79 million equity shares at INR 1,785 apiece, the upper end of the price band. The offer opens for subscription Thursday and will close Monday. The exchange has cut the size of the offer for sale to 126.4 million shares from 148.9 million shares earlier. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 95.80-96.20. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 96.10 a dollar. (Kabir Sharma)

---

India Rupee: Premium steady as RBI's forward dly buys offset high US yields

 

	AT 1313 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.8950	95.9850	95.7825	96.0925	95.9550
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	322.23	317.44	322.56	317.44	322.44

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium was steady Thursday as the Reserve Bank of India continued conducting dollar-rupee sell-buy swaps to drain excess rupee liquiduty from the system, which offset the pressure from high US Treasury yields, dealers said. This was the RBI's sixth consecutive trading day of holding sell-buy swaps in the forwards market, as per dealers.

 

The US Federal Open Market Committee unanimously decided to raise the policy rate by 25 basis points, which pulled up the yield on the 10-year US benchmark note to over 5?ter the decision, and this weighed on premiums, dealers said. 

 

"They (RBI) are continuing with swaps in November and December tenures, which is able to relieve some pressure from US yields," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. Under a sell-buy swap, the RBI sells dollars for immediate delivery and simultaneously buys them for delivery at maturity, thereby absorbing rupee liquidity from the banking system. The central bank has been using such swaps regularly in recent sessions to manage the large liquidity surplus in the banking system. 

 

The RBI's net liquidity absorbed – a proxy for the banking system liquidity surplus – was INR 7.38 trillion Wednesday, down from INR 9.85 trillion Tuesday.

 

At 1327 IST, the one-year forward premium was at 3.36%, steady against 3.35% Wednesday. On an absolute basis, the one-year exact-period forward premium was 322.23 paise, against 322.44 paise Wednesday.  (Kabir Sharma)

---

India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Sept 17

 

NEW DELHI – At 1050 IST, the rupee was at 95.8250 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 95.9850 a dollar, against the previous close of 95.9550. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and a brokerage: 

 

Participant	S2	S1	R1	R2
Public-sector bank	96.50	96.10	95.70	95.50
Private-sector bank	96.50	96.20	95.70	95.60
Brokerage firm	-	96.50	95.50	-
Brokerage firm	96.50	96.30	95.80	95.50

 

(Pratiksha) 

---

India Rupee: Up, recovers from 96/$1 as RBI intervenes; surge in dlr weighs

 

Please click here to read all liners published on this story

 

	AT 0940 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.8875	95.9850	95.8550	96.0925	95.9550

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee recovered from the psychologically-crucial 96.00-per-dollar mark and rose against the dollar as the Reserve Bank of India likely interevened heavily through dollar sales, dealers said. The Indian unit fell below the key level for the first time in over seven weeks as the dollar index jumped after the US Federal Open Market Committee raised interest rates by 25 basis points, they said. The rupee hit a low of 96.0925 in early trade. 

 

State-owned banks likely sold dollars on behalf of the central bank at multiple dollar-rupee levels, dealers said. They expect the RBI to actively intervene in the market throughout the day. The central bank also likely intervened in the offshore non-deliverable forwards market before the spot market opening, they added. "The rupee was around 96.20 at one point in offshore, but we are not seeing such levels now," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "RBI dragged it (dollar-rupee) down."

 

The US FOMC hiked interest rates for the first time in over three years Wednesday. The 12-member panel voted unanimously to hike the Fed funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00% to curb inflation that remains well above its target. The Summary of Economic Projections showed the median estimate of Fed officials was that the target rate would be raised by another 25 bps in the remainder of 2026.

 

Following this, the dollar index jumped close to a seven-week-high Wednesday. At 0940 IST, the dollar index was at 100.33, broadly steady from 100.34 Wednesday but sharply higher from 99.61 Tuesday. 

 

Dealers expect the Indian unit to be under pressure during the day as importers may rush to buy the greenback, fearing further depreciation of the rupee. For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 95.80-96.20. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 96.10 a dollar. (Pratiksha)

---

India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Sept 17

 

NEW DELHI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Thursday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Public-sector bank	96.40	95.90
Private-sector bank	96.20	95.70
Private-sector bank	96.30	95.80
Private-sector bank	96.35	95.85
Foreign bank	96.40	96.00
Brokerage firm	96.25	95.75
Brokerage firm	96.13	95.82

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Pratiksha)

---

India Rupee - Asia FX: Fall as dollar index at 7-wk high post Fed rate hike

 

NEW DELHI – Most Asian currencies fell against the dollar Thursday as the US Federal Reserve delivered its first interest rate hike in more than three years Wednesday, with markets ramping up bets that the US central bank may hike rates again this year. 

 

The US Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to hike the Fed funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00% to curb inflation that remains well above its target. The Summary of Economic Projections showed the median estimate of Fed officials was that the target rate would be raised by another 25 bps in the remainder of 2026. Following this, the dollar index jumped close to a seven-week-high. At 0820 IST, the dollar index was at 100.32, broadly steady from 100.34 Wednesday but sharply higher from 99.61 Tuesday.

 

The Malaysian ringgit was the worst hit amongst its Asian peers, down 0.5% against the dollar. The Taiwan dollar, South Korean won, and Indonesian rupiah, all fell 0.3% against the greenback. The Philippine peso and Thai baht were down 0.1% against the US unit. 

 

The Hong Kong dollar was flat against the greenback as the Hong Kong Monetary Authority ‌Thursday raised its base interest rate charged via the overnight discount window by 25 bps to 4.25%, following a hike by the Fed. The Chinese yuan was also steady against the dollar.

 

Market participants now await policy ‌decisions from the Bank of England later in the day and the Bank of Japan Friday. The Bank of England is expected to keep interest rates on hold while the Japanese central bank is expected to hike rates to a 31-year high and signal its readiness to keep pushing up borrowing costs. (Pratiksha)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

 

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

 

Informist Media Tel +91 (11) 4220-1000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

 

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2026. All rights reserved.