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Informist, Wednesday, Sept. 16, 2026

 

By Kabir Sharma

 

MUMBAI – The rupee was unchanged against the dollar on Wednesday as traders were cautious ahead of the outcome of the US Federal Open Market Committee's meeting, due later in the day, dealers said. The rupee remained under pressure throughout the day due to elevated crude oil prices, but this was offset by banks' dollar sales on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, they said. 

 

"We are all waiting for the rate hike tonight, it's almost certain now," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "If the Fed springs a surprise and skips the hike, you can see it (dollar/rupee) going to 95.50, otherwise 96 is certain tomorrow," he said. 

 

The rupee moved in a narrow range of 14 paise throughout the day and fell to an intraday low of 95.9775. The Indian unit ended the day at 95.9550 a dollar, flat compared to its previous close. 

 

Dealers are focused on the outcome of the FOMC meeting later on Wednesday, they said. Markets are pricing in a high probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike, with Fed Fund Futures showing a 90% probability. A hike, particularly if accompanied by guidance suggesting further tightening, could push US Treasury yields and the dollar higher and weigh on emerging market currencies, including the rupee, dealers said. 

 

Brent crude oil rose to around $108 a barrel in early trade amid concerns about supply disruptions in West Asia, increasing the demand for dollars from oil importers and raising concerns about India's trade balance and inflation.

 

The dollar was also supported by higher US Treasury yields and expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its meeting later on Wednesday.

 

Dealers said they expect inflows for the initial public offering of National Stock Exchange to provide ample support to the rupee for the next five days. Other major IPOs such as those of Hero Motors will also attract dollar inflows that could support the local unit, they said. Gains in benchamrk equity indices on Wednesday were also positive for the rupee, dealers said. 

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.9550	95.8875	95.8400	95.9775	95.9550
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	322.44	322.31	324.25	319.44	321.55

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium rose slightly Wednesday as the Reserve Bank of India continued conducting dollar-rupee sell-buy swaps to drain excess rupee liquiduty from the system, dealers said. This was the RBI's fifth consecutive trading day of holding sell-buy swaps in the forwards market, as per dealers.

 

The rise in premiums was despite pressure from US yields, which typically makes dollar assets more attractive and weighs on forward premiums. Dealers said the RBI's continued use of near-maturity swaps to absorb surplus rupee liquidity from the banking system was supporting premiums.

 

At 1530 IST, US yield was 4.99%, while markets continued to price in a high probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the US Federal Reserve late Wednesday. The premium was also supported by expectations that the RBI will continue using swaps to manage surplus rupee liquidity, dealers said. The central bank's recent swaps have focused on shorter maturities, influencing premiums in the near-to-one-year segment.

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year forward premium was 3.35%, unchanghed from Tuesday. On an absolute basis, the one-year exact-period forward premium was 322.44 paise, against 321.55 paise Tuesday.

 

OUTLOOK

On Thursday, market participants will track the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee's meeting. Dealers said the rupee could remain volatile through the session, with the 96-per-dollar level likely to remain an important psychological marker. Dealers will track Brent crude, the dollar index, US Treasury yields, and the Fed's policy decision. The rupee is expected to remain under pressure throughout the day, although RBI intervention could limit the pace of depreciation.

 

Dealers expect importers to keep buying dollars, weighing on the rupee. They also expect foreign portfolio investors to pull out funds from Indian markets amid global uncertainty. 

 

Dealers see strong support for the rupee at 96.00 per dollar. The rupee is expected to move in the range of 95.80-96.30 per dollar Thursday.

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India Rupee - World FX: Dollar index steady ahead of Fed policy decision

 

	AT 1525 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3468	1.3498	1.3466	1.3468
EUR/USD	1.1540	1.1557	1.1532	1.1541
NZD/USD	0.5756	0.5761	0.5737	0.5756
AUD/USD	0.7129	0.7136	0.7120	0.7128
USD/JPY	155.1540	155.4870	154.8880	155.0330
USD/CAD	1.3929	1.3938	1.3919	1.3916
EUR/JPY	179.0370	179.3510	178.8700	178.9900
CHF/USD	1.2206	1.2227	1.2200	1.2208
EUR/CHF	0.9453	0.9460	0.9447	0.9442

 

NEW DELHI – The dollar index was broadly steady ahead of the US Federal Open Market Committee's policy decision later in the day, when it is expected to hike interest rates. Market participants globally are betting heavily that the Fed will hike its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00%, and signal further tightening ahead.

 

Fed funds futures are pricing a roughly 92.5% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed later in the day, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. aT 1525 IST, the dollar index was at 99.65, against 99.61 on Tuesday and 99.47 on Monday. 

 

The euro and pound sterling were also steady against the dollar. Data on Wednesday showed inflation in the UK climbed to a five-month high of 3.1% in August, in line with expectations. This comes a day before the Bank of England is expected to keep interest rates on hold.

 

The Japanese yen also held stable against the greenback. The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates on Friday and hint at readiness to keep increasing borrowing costs. Both the New Zealand dollar and Australian dollar were also flat against the US unit. (Pratiksha)  

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India Rupee: Steady on caution ahead of FOMC decision; RBI dlr sales aid

 

	AT 1410 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.9650	95.8875	95.8400	95.9725	95.9550
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	323.44	322.31	324.25	319.44	321.55

 

MUMBAI – The rupee remained steady against the dollar on Wednesday as dealers were cautious ahead of the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee's meeting later in the day, dealers said. The pressure from elevated crude oil prices and expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate hike was offset by dollar sales by state-owned banks on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, dealers said. 

 

"It has moved in a very narrow range because there are equal pressures on both side," a dealer at a private bank said. "Importers are not letting up but it looks like RBI will not let it cross 96 anyway," he said. 

 

A major headwind for the rupee remains crude oil. Brent was at around $108 per barrel at 1409 IST, after attacks on Saudi Arabian energy infrastructure raised concerns about supply and shipping disruptions. Higher oil prices increase India's dollar demand from oil importers and could put pressure on the country's trade balance and inflation outlook. 

 

The dollar was also supported by higher US Treasury yields and expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points later on Wednesday. Markets have priced in more than a 90% probability of a rate hike, with the focus now shifting to the Fed's guidance on the future rate path.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 95.70-96.20. Dealers see strong technical support for the rupee at 96.00 a dollar. (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Premium up as RBI likely buys fwd dlrs; rise in US ylds weighs

 

	AT 1326 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.9475	95.8875	95.8400	95.9550	95.9550
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	323.44	322.31	324.25	319.44	321.55

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium rose slightly Wednesday as the Reserve Bank of India continued conducting dollar-rupee sell-buy swaps to drain excess rupee liquiduty from the system, dealers said. This was the RBI's fifth consecutive trading day of holding sell-buy swaps in the forwards market, as per dealers.

 

The rise in premiums came despite the pressure from US yields, which typically makes dollar assets more attractive and weighs on forward premiums. Dealers said the RBI's continued use of near-maturity swaps to absorb surplus rupee liquidity from the banking system was supporting premiums.

 

"RBI is still doing swaps in the near bucket, but premiums are also reacting to the rise in US yields," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. Under a sell-buy swap, the RBI sells dollars for immediate delivery and simultaneously buys them for delivery at maturity, thereby absorbing rupee liquidity from the banking system. The central bank has been using such swaps regularly in recent sessions to manage the large liquidity surplus in the banking system. 

 

At 1319 IST, US yield was around 4.99%, while markets continued to price in a high probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the US Federal Reserve at its policy meeting late Wednesday. The premium was also supported by expectations that the RBI will continue using swaps to manage surplus rupee liquidity, dealers said. The central bank's recent swaps have focused on shorter maturities, influencing premiums in the near-to-one-year segment.

 

At 1323 IST, the one-year forward premium was at 3.36%, higher from 3.35% Tuesday. On an absolute basis, the one-year exact-period forward premium was 323.44 paise, against 321.55 paise Tuesday.  (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Sept 16

 

MUMBAI – At 1133 IST, the rupee was at 95.9150 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 95.8875 a dollar, against the previous close of 95.9550. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and a brokerage: 

 

Participant	S2	S1	R1	R2
Public-sector bank	96.20	96.00	95.80	95.00
Private-sector bank	96.25	96.00	95.75	95.50
Brokerage firm	96.50	96.00	95.50	95.00
Brokerage firm	96.30	96.00	95.50	95.00

 

(Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Steady; RBI dlr sales offset high crude oil prices, firm dlr

 

	AT 0941 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.8850	95.8875	95.8400	95.9100	95.9550
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	322.44	322.31	323.25	322.31	321.55

 

MUMBAI — The rupee was steady against the dollar Wednesday as dollar sales by state-owned banks on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India offset persistent concerns over elevated crude oil prices and expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate hike, dealers said.

 

"They are active since the first trade otherwise it will just fall past 96 instantly," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. 

 

The rupee had closed at 95.9550 per dollar on Tuesday, its seventh consecutive session of losses. Brent crude rose to around $108 a barrel in early trade amid concerns over supply disruptions in West Asia, increasing dollar demand from oil importers and raising concerns over India's trade balance and inflation.

 

The dollar was also supported by higher US Treasury yields and expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its policy meeting later today. Markets have priced in more than a 90% probability of a rate hike, with the focus now shifting to the Fed's guidance on the future rate path.

 

Dealers said the rupee could remain volatile through the session, with the 96-per-dollar level likely to remain an important psychological marker. Dealers will track Brent crude, the dollar index, US Treasury yields and the Fed's policy decision. The rupee is expected to remain under pressure throughout the day, although RBI intervention could limit the pace of depreciation.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 95.70-96.20. Dealers see strong technical support for the rupee at 96.00 a dollar. (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most fall as oil up, dlr firm ahead of Fed decision

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies were under pressure against the dollar Wednesday as elevated crude oil prices and expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate hike kept investors cautious. Brent crude oil prices remained elevated above $107 a barrel as concern over energy supplies persisted amid the ongoing war in West Asia.

 

At 0930 IST, Brent crude futures were around $107.8 a barrel, after rising sharply in the previous session. Higher oil prices are negative for currencies of energy-importing Asian economies such as India as they increase demand for dollars from oil companies and raise concern over the country's trade balance and inflation.

 

The dollar remained firm against major currencies ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision later today. Markets are pricing in more than a 90% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike, which would be the first increase since 2023, according to CME FedWatch. The US federal funds target range is currently 3.50-3.75%.

 

The South Korean won and Taiwan dollar were among the weakest Asian currencies while the Malaysian ringgit fell to a one-month low against the dollar. In Malaysia, major sell-off in government bonds has lifted yields, including that of Malaysian Government Securities, tightening financing conditions across the economy. For Malaysia, higher energy prices are also dragging on government finances as subsidy bill balloons.

 

The Taiwan dollar saw the steepest fall in more than six months as foreign investors repatriated over $2 billion in a single day on Tuesday, while the Taiwan stock market plunged more than 350 points, with foreign investors extending their selling streak to a fourth consecutive session and cumulative withdrawals exceeding $220 billion Taiwan dollars (approximately $6.9 billion). (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Sept 16

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Wednesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Public-sector bank	96.00	95.50
Public-sector bank	96.00	95.65
Private-sector bank	96.00	95.55
Private-sector bank	96.00	95.65
Brokerage firm	96.00	95.50
Brokerage firm	96.20	95.70

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Kabir Sharma)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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