India Rupee Review
Falls to 7-week low as crude, dollar rise; RBI capitals losses
This story was originally published at 16:20 IST on 15 September 2026
Register to read our real-time news.Informist, Tuesday, Sept. 15, 2026
By Kabir Sharma
MUMBAI – The rupee fell sharply against the dollar Tuesday, hitting a seven-week low of 95.9600 as a near 2% rise in crude oil prices and a stronger dollar index weighed on the Indian currency amid escalating tensions in West Asia, dealers said. The rupee weakened through the session despite likely intervention by the Reserve Bank of India, with state-owned banks seen selling dollars in the spot market to prevent the currency from breaching the psychologically important 96-per-dollar level.
"It would have crossed 96 (a dollar) again today if not for RBI," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "All the factors are against the ruoee, its only a matter of time before it crosses that level again."
The rupee fell to an intraday low of 95.9600, its weakest level since Jul. 27. The Indian unit ended the day at 95.9550 a dollar compared with 95.5500 at the previous close.
Dealers said persistent dollar demand from importers, who increased purchases amid expectations of further rupee depreciation, added to pressure on the currency. Foreign portfolio outflows also remained a drag, with overseas investors having pulled out $1.30 bln from Indian equities in September so far.
Brent crude oil futures for November delivery rose to $107.40 a barrel at 1544 IST from $105.68 a barrel Monday, as fresh strikes on Saudi Arabian energy infrastructure and attacks on ships in West Asia heightened concerns over supply disruptions.
The dollar index also rose to 99.65 from 99.47 Monday and 99.10 Friday, supported by safe-haven demand and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike Wednesday following stronger-than-expected US inflation data. Fed funds futures imply about a 92% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.
The rupee market was closed Monday for Ganesh Chaturthi, leaving the currency to absorb the rise in crude and dollar index over the long weekend. Despite the sharp decline, dealers said RBI intervention around 96.00/$1 remained the key support for the rupee.
The central bank's intervention capacity remains substantial, with India's foreign exchange reserves at a record $785.71 bln as of Sept. 4, boosted by capital inflows under RBI's special swap scheme. Indian banks raised $136.38 bln from overseas depositors and investors under the scheme.
| AT 1530 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 95.9550 | 95.7500 | 95.7500 | 95.9600 | 95.5500 |
| 1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) | 321.55 | 319.05 | 322.34 | 316.02 | 318.75 |
FORWARDS
The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium rose slightly Tuesday despite a jump in US Treasury yields, as the Reserve Bank of India likely conducted sell-buy swaps for maturity in one-to-two months, in order to absorb surplus rupee liquidity from the banking system, dealers said. This was the RBI's fourth consecutive trading day of holding sell-buy swaps in the forwards market, as per dealers.
The RBI's net liquidity absorbed--a proxy for the banking system liquidity surplus--was INR 10.73 trillion Friday, up from INR 10.43 trillion Thursday. The RBI has also been almost regularly conducting variable rate reverse repo auctions to absorb surplus liquidity from the banking system.
The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield jumped to its highest level since 2007 Tuesday due to expectation of a rate hike by the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday. Fed funds futures are pricing in roughly 92% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed on Wednesday, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. The US federal funds target rate range is currently 3.50-3.75%
At 1530 IST, the one-year forward premium was at 3.35%, tad up from 3.34% Friday. On an absolute basis, the one-year exact-period forward premium was 321.55 paise, against 318.75 paise Friday
OUTLOOK
On Wednesday, market participants will look forward to the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The rupee will also track crude oil prices amid evolving developments in the war between the US and Iran, dealers said.
Market participants expect the rupee to remain under pressure in the near term, with crude prices, the dollar index, Fed policy expectations and developments in West Asia likely to determine the currency's direction. The 96-per-dollar mark remains the key level to watch, with a sustained break potentially opening the way toward 96.30-96.50, dealers said.
Dealers expect importers to keep buying dollars, weighing on the rupee. They also expect foreign portfolio investors to pull out funds from Indian markets amid global uncertainty.
Dealers see strong support for the rupee at 96.00 per dollar. The rupee is expected to move in the range of 95.80-96.30 per dollar Wednesday.
India Rupee - World FX: Dlr up on rise in US yields; South Korean won dn 1%
| AT 1450 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS | |
| GBP/USD | 1.3470 | 1.3506 | 1.3464 | 1.3501 |
| EUR/USD | 1.1533 | 1.1554 | 1.1527 | 1.1551 |
| NZD/USD | 0.5764 | 0.5781 | 0.5752 | 0.5766 |
| AUD/USD | 0.7125 | 0.7141 | 0.7117 | 0.7138 |
| USD/JPY | 154.9650 | 155.2390 | 154.2140 | 154.3310 |
| USD/CAD | 1.3905 | 1.3916 | 1.3898 | 1.3899 |
| EUR/JPY | 178.7220 | 179.0810 | 178.1437 | 178.2600 |
| CHF/USD | 1.2226 | 1.2245 | 1.2215 | 1.2231 |
| EUR/CHF | 0.9433 | 0.9443 | 0.9423 | 0.9435 |
MUMBAI – The dollar strengthened against other major currencies on Tuesday, supported by higher US Treasury yields and expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy, and elevated oil prices and geopolitical risks also boosted demand for the greenback. At 1457 IST, the dollar index was at 99.65, up from 99.47 Monday and 99.10 Friday. Fed funds futures are pricing a roughly 92% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed on Wednesday, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. The US federal funds target rate range is currently 3.50-3.75%
The yen was down 0.4% against the dollar after the Japanese currency retreated from a seven-month high as traders pared bets of aggressive tightening by Bank of Japan. The yen's recent gains were driven by expectations of further rate hikes and potential repatriation flows. Focus is now on the Bank of Japan's Sept. 18 policy meeting, with higher US yields weighing on the yen.
The pound sterling was down 0.2% against the greenback, pressured by the dollar's broader strength and rising US yields. The pound has also faced pressure from weaker UK labour-market data and concerns over the country's fiscal outlook. Expectations that the Bank of England will keep rates elevated have provided some support, but did not offset the dollar's gains.
The euro slipped to a one-month low against the dollar. Apart from a stroger dollar, the common currency was weighed down by political and fiscal uncertainty in France, even as the European Central Bank maintains a relatively firm policy stance.
The South Korean won was the worst hit, falling over 1% against the dollar and reversing recent gains. The won had rallied sharply in the last two months, helped by easing US inflation expectations and strong South Korean semiconductor exports. Higher US yields, stronger dollar demand and elevated oil prices have since put pressure on the won and other Asian currencies. (Kabir Sharma)
India Rupee: Premium tad up as RBI likely holds FX swap; US yld rise weighs
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|
AT 1245 IST |
AT 0900 IST |
HIGH |
LOW |
PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST) |
|
|
Spot rupee per $1 |
95.9400 | 95.7500 | 95.7500 | 95.9425 | 95.5500 |
|
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) |
321.18 | 319.05 | 322.34 | 316.02 | 318.75 |
NEW DELHI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium rose slightly Tuesday despite a jump in US Treasury yields, as the Reserve Bank of India likely conducted sell-buy swaps for maturity in one-to-two months, in order to absorb surplus rupee liquidity from the banking system, dealers said. This was the RBI's fourth consecutive trading day of holding sell-buy swaps in the forwards market, as per dealers.
"RBI is still hitting the near bucket with swaps," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "This is why we are not seeing much impact of the US yields on premiums." Under a sell-buy swap, the RBI sells dollars for immediate delivery and simultaneously buys them for delivery at maturity, thereby absorbing rupee liquidity from the banking system.
The RBI's net liquidity absorbed--a proxy for the banking system liquidity surplus--was INR 10.73 trillion Friday, up from INR 10.43 trillion Thursday. The RBI has also been almost regularly conducting variable rate reverse repo auctions to absorb surplus liquidity from the banking system.
The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield jumped to its highest level since 2007 Tuesday due to expectation of a rate hike by the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday. Fed funds futures are pricing in roughly 92% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed on Wednesday, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. The US federal funds target rate range is currently 3.50-3.75%
At 1245 IST, the one-year forward premium was at 3.35%, tad up from 3.34% Friday. On an absolute basis, the one-year exact-period forward premium was 321.18 paise, against 318.75 paise Friday. (Pratiksha)
India Rupee: Falls more as crude oil, dollar index rise; RBI prevents 96/$1
| AT 1300 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 95.9300 | 95.7500 | 95.7500 | 95.9425 | 95.5500 |
NEW DELHI – The rupee fell further against the dollar, inching closer to the key 96-per-dollar mark, owing to a a near 2% jump in crude oil prices and gain in the dollar index amid concern over supply disruption following escalation in the war in West Asia, dealers said. However, the Reserve Bank of India likely sold dollars actively in the spot market, which limited losses for the local currency, they said.
"The rupee is expectedly going lower, in line with rise in crude. None of the global cues are in support of rupee right now," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "RBI is letting it (rupee) go a bit but I don't think 96.00 will break today."
Most market participants expect the central bank to keep the Indian unit from falling past the psychologically-crucial 96.00 level. The rupee fell to a low of 95.9425 a dollar during the day. The last time the Indian unit was trading below 96.00 was in late July.
The price of Brent crude oil rose as concern around energy supplies intensified after fresh strikes on Saudi Arabian energy infrastructure and attacks on ships in West Asia. At 1300 IST, Brent crude oil futures for November delivery were at $107.40 a barrel, up from $105.68 a barrel Monday.
Further, the dollar index strengthened as recent inflation prints increased odds of a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday. Fed funds futures are pricing in a roughly 92% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed on Wednesday, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. The US federal funds target rate range is currently 3.50-3.75%. At 1300 IST, the dollar index was at 99.63, up from 99.47 Monday.
Amid the increased global uncertainty, banks persistently bought dollars on behalf of importers, fearing further depreciation of the rupee, which further weighed on the Indian currency, dealers said. For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 95.60-96.00. Dealers see strong technical support for the rupee at 96.00 a dollar. (Pratiksha)
India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Sept 15
NEW DELHI – At 1118 IST, the rupee was at 95.8625 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 95.7500 a dollar, against the previous close of 95.5500. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and a brokerage:
| Participant | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 |
| Public-sector bank | 96.00 | 95.90 | 95.55 | 95.50 |
| Private-sector bank | 96.30 | 96.00 | 95.50 | 95.30 |
| Brokerage firm | - | 96.25 | 95.25 | - |
| Brokerage firm | 96.15 | 96.00 | 95.30 | 95.00 |
(Pratiksha)
India Rupee: At 7-week low as crude oil, dlr index gain; RBI steps in
| AT 0940 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 95.7800 | 95.7500 | 95.7500 | 95.8350 | 95.5500 |
NEW DELHI – The rupee fell sharply to a seven-week low against the dollar Tuesday as crude oil prices and the dollar index climbed due to growing supply worries following further escalation in the war in West Asia, dealers said. The surge in crude oil prices and Friday's US inflation print also reinforced expectation that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates Wednesday. The Indian currency fell to 95.8350 a dollar in early trade, its lowest intraday level since Jul. 28.
The price of Brent crude oil rose almost 2% in early trade Tuesday as concern around energy supplies heightened after new strikes on Saudi Arabian energy infrastructure and attacks on ships in West Asia. At 0940 IST, Brent crude oil futures for November delivery were at $107.02 a barrel, up from $105.68 a barrel Monday.
The dollar index rose due to safe haven demand and as rising inflation increased expectations of a rate hike by the Fed on Wednesday. The CPI inflation was up 0.4% last month after edging up 0.1% in July. On an annual basis, US CPI inflation was 3.4% for August.
At 0940 IST, the dollar index was at 99.60, up from 99.47 Monday and 99.10 Friday. Fed funds futures are pricing a roughly 92% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed on Wednesday, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. The US federal funds target rate range is currently 3.50-3.75%
Meanwhile, some state-owned banks sold dollars, likely for the Reserve Bank of India, which limited losses for the Indian unit, dealers said. "95.80 was expected to be protected. Looks like they (RBI) are trying to keep it around that level," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. Most market participants expect the central bank to keep the Indian unit from falling past the psychologically-crucial 96.00 level.
For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 95.60-95.90. Dealers see strong technical support for the rupee at 96.00 a dollar. (Pratiksha)
India Rupee - Asia FX: Most fall as crude oil, dlr index up amid W Asia war
NEW DELHI – Most Asian currencies fell against the dollar Tuesday as the ongoing war in West Asia pushed up the dollar index and crude oil prices. Increased expectations of a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve this week also weighed on investors' risk appetite.
Price of Brent crude oil rose almost 2% in early trade as worries about energy supplies intensified following fresh strikes on Saudi Arabian energy infrastructure and attacks on ships in West Asia. At 0815 IST, Brent crude oil futures for November delivery were at $107.22 a barrel, up from $105.68 a barrel Monday and $104.61 a barrel Friday.
The dollar index gained over the long weekend due to safe haven demand and as Friday's US inflation data increased expectations of a rate hike by the Fed on Wednesday. The CPI inflation increased 0.4% last month after edging up 0.1% in July. At 0815 IST, the dollar index was at 99.62, up from 99.47 on Monday and 99.10 on Friday. Fed funds futures are pricing in a roughly 92% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed on Wednesday, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. The US federal funds target rate range is currently 3.50-3.75%
The South Korean won was the worst hit among its peers, falling 0.5% to 1,354 a dollar. Both the Taiwan dollar and Thai baht were down 0.1% against the greenback at 31.81 a dollar and 33.26 a dollar, respectively. The Malaysian ringgit was also down 0.1% at 4.08 a dollar.
Bucking the trend, the Chinese yuan was flat against the greeback at 6.71 despite data Tuesday showing an increase in industrial output last month. China's industrial output grew 5.2% on year in August, climbing from a 4.5% rise in July. Meanwhile, Reuters Monday reported citing people with knowledge of the matter that in order to shield exporters from the yuan's steady appreciation, China's foreign exchange regulator has directed banks to encourage more corporate clients to hedge currency risks. (Pratiksha)
India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Sept 15
NEW DELHI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Tuesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:
| PARTICIPANT | SUPPORT | RESISTANCE |
| Public-sector bank | 95.80 | 95.50 |
| Public-sector bank | 96.00 | 95.65 |
| Private-sector bank | 96.00 | 95.55 |
| Private-sector bank | 96.00 | 95.65 |
| Brokerage firm | 96.00 | 95.50 |
| Brokerage firm | 95.92 | 95.54 |
(Pratiksha)
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury
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