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Informist, Friday, Sept. 11, 2026

 

By Pratiksha

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee erased a significant portion of its losses and settled off its day's low against the dollar as the Reserve Bank of India actively intervened through dollar sales, dealers said. An intraday fall in Brent crude also supported the Indian unit, they added. 

 

"It was mostly RBI's spot sales (of dollars) that helped the rupee," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Crude also came off a bit in the end, supporting on the side."

 

After touching a low of 95.7925 a dollar in early trade, the rupee settled at 95.5500 a dollar, its lowest closing level since Aug. 24, against 95.4400 on Thursday. 

 

The rupee fell 1.1% against the dollar this week, posting its biggest weekly loss in four months. 

 

The Indian unit started the day sharply lower against the dollar as Brent crude oil surged to near the $110-per-barrel mark in early trade, amid worries about further disruptions to already tight supplies in West Asia following attacks on shipping, dealers said. Brent crude oil price surged over 6% Thursday after Iran-backed Houthis seized control of Yemen's port of Mocha, posing a further risk to Red Sea traffic.

 

However, the RBI marked its presence shortly after the open and intervened around 95.79 a dollar, dealers said. Some dealers said the central bank also likely intervened in the offshore non-deliverable forwards market to support the rupee. "We saw very strong support at 95.80. It did not breach at all," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "RBI was spotted in the market since morning, I think."

 

"We will need to support the forex markets," RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said in an interview to CNBC-TV18 business channel Friday, referring to how the central bank's potential dollar sales would aid the drainage of ‌surplus rupee liquidity from the banking system. No tool is off the table for managing liquidity and keeping the overnight rate aligned with the key repo rate, Malhotra said, mentioning open market bond sales and dollar-rupee sell-buy swaps as options.

 

Meanwhile, banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, fearing further weakness of the Indian unit, which exerted further pressure on the local unit, dealers said. The Indian currency fell for the fourth consecutive day Friday. 

 

However, Brent crude eased in the second half of trade, helping the Indian unit erase some losses, dealers said. At 1530 IST, Brent crude oil futures for November delivery were at $104.01 a barrel, lower from $107.63 a barrel Thursday. It rose to a near four-month high of $109.97 a barrel in early trade. 

 

A fall in domestic equities also weighed on the local currency, dealers said. Friday, the Sensex and Nifty 50 ended 0.2% and 0.3% lower, respectively.

 

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.5500	95.6900	95.5200	95.7925	95.4400
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	318.75	316.38	324.50	314.50	319.19

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium ended steady as the impact of the RBI's likely sell-buy swaps was offset by banks' dollar sales for forward delivery, noting the relatively higher levels, dealers said. The central bank likely held sell-buy swaps for maturities of one to four months to absorb surplus rupee liquidity from the banking system, dealers said. This was the RBI's third consecutive day of holding sell-buy swaps in the forwards market, dealers said.  

 

Following this, the one-year premium hit a 16-week high during the day. The one-month forward premium has surged almost 80 basis points this week, while the one-year premium has risen over 30 bps.

 

Under a sell-buy swap, the RBI sells dollars for immediate delivery and simultaneously buys them for delivery at maturity, thereby absorbing rupee liquidity from the banking system. The RBI's net liquidity absorbed – a proxy for the banking system liquidity surplus – was INR 10.43 trillion Thursday, little changed from INR 10.50 trillion Wednesday. The RBI has also been conducting variable rate reverse repo auctions to absorb surplus liquidity from the banking system.

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year forward premium was at 3.34%, unchanged from Thursday. On an absolute basis, the one-year exact-period forward premium was 318.75 paise, against 319.19 paise Thursday.

 

OUTLOOK

The currency market is closed on Monday for Ganesh Chaturthi. On Tuesday, the rupee will track crude oil prices amid evolving developments in the war between the US and Iran, dealers said. 

 

The rupee is also likely to track the dollar index after the US inflation data later in the day. The US CPI data for August is expected to have a huge bearing on the US Federal Reserve's policy, potentially making or breaking the case for an interest rate hike next week. The inflation data is likely to show that consumer prices accelerated in August as fuel costs rebounded. 

 

Dealers expect importers to keep buying dollars, weighing on the rupee. They also expect foreign portfolio investors to pull out funds from Indian markets amid global uncertainty. 

 

However, market participants are counting on the central bank to support the rupee if it comes under pressure. They expect the RBI to protect the key 96.00 mark. "96.00 has not been breached for quite some time, so there is some psychological bound there," a dealer at another private-sector bank said. 

 

Dealers see strong support for the rupee at 95.80 per dollar. The rupee is expected to move in the range of 95.50-95.90 per dollar Tuesday.

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India Rupee - World FX: Dollar index stable ahead of US inflation data Fri

 

	AT 1505 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3506	1.3527	1.3496	1.3506
EUR/USD	1.1598	1.1618	1.1596	1.1609
NZD/USD	0.5821	0.5835	0.5796	0.5794
AUD/USD	0.7168	0.7176	0.7150	0.7156
USD/JPY	154.1960	154.6130	153.9650	154.3160
USD/CAD	1.3847	1.3848	1.3830	1.3825
EUR/JPY	178.8410	179.5460	178.7060	179.2400
CHF/USD	1.2272	1.2310	1.2269	1.2294
EUR/CHF	0.9451	0.9454	0.9435	0.9440

 

NEW DELHI – The dollar index was broadly stable amid uncertainty related to the war in West Asia and ahead of the release of key US inflation data later in the day. The US CPI data for August is seen having a huge bearing on the US Federal Reserve's policy, potentially making or breaking the case for an interest rate hike next week. 

 

The inflation data is likely to show that consumer prices accelerated in August as the cost of fuel rebounded. At 1505 IST, the dollar index was at 99.13, against 99.09 on Thursday and 98.78 on Wednesday. Fed funds futures are pricing a roughly 70% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed on Sept. 16, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool.

 

The pound sterling was stable at 1.35 a dollar after rising slightly earlier as data on Friday showed growth in the UK surpassed expectations in July. The UK GDP grew 0.4% in July, far ‌exceeding economists' forecasts that the economy would flatline.

 

The euro was down 0.1% against the dollar at 1.16 even after the European Central Bank raised interest rates on Thursday for the second time this year. ECB President Christine Lagarde described the decision as a "no-brainer", and warned that the return of inflation to its 2% target, now seen at the end of 2027, could be delayed even further.

 

The Japanese yen was up 0.2% against the dollar at 154.16 after data released Friday showed wholesale inflation remained high in August, underlining rising price pressures that reinforce the case for the central bank to raise interest rates ‌this month. Reuters reported citing sources that the Bank of Japan is set to raise interest rates next week, most likely by 25 bps, and may signal quicker future tightening if price pressures heighten risks of an inflation overshoot. 

 

Meanwhile, Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Friday that the government would continue to closely communicate with the US to ensure orderly foreign exchange markets, reports said. The Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar were up 0.2% and 0.4% against the dollar, respectively. (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Remains sharply down as importers buy dollars; RBI limits fall

 

	AT 1350 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.7525	95.6900	95.6275	95.7925	95.4400

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee remained sharply lower against the dollar as banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, fearing further weakness of the Indian unit, dealers said. However, losses for the Indian unit were limited as the Reserve Bank of India continued intervening through dollar sales, they said. 

 

"The rupee is under great pressure. If RBI had not intervened, 96.00 would have happened easily," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. The rupee has depreciated 1.4% against the dollar this week. 

 

The central bank likely stepped in to intervene through dollar sales around 95.79 a dollar earlier in the day, and has continued to intervene sporadially through the day, they said. However, the intervention was not aggressive in nature, they added. 

 

The Indian unit came under pressure as prices of Brent crude oil surged owing to heightened worries about the conflict in West Asia, dealers said. Prices came off highs during the day, which provided some support to the local unit, they said. At 1350 IST, Brent crude oil futures for November delivery were at $106.03 a barrel, down from $107.63 a barrel Thursday, and against $101.21 a barrel Wednesday. It had risen to a near four-month high of $109.97 a barrel in early trade. 

 

A fall in domestic equities also weighed on the Indian unit, they said. At 1350 IST, the Nifty 50 and Sensex were down 0.5?ch. For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 95.50-95.80. Dealers see strong technical support for the rupee at 95.80 a dollar. (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee:Premium up as RBI likely holds sell-buy swap for 3rd day in a row

 

--Dealers: RBI likely conducting FX sell-buy swaps in near-term tenures 

--Dealers: RBI likely buying forward dollars to drain excess rupee liquidity 

 

	AT 1305IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.7100	95.6900	95.6275	95.7925	95.4400
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	321.75	316.38	324.50	314.50	319.19

 

NEW DELHI – Dollar-rupee forward premiums rose across tenures, with the one-year premium hitting a 16-week high, as the Reserve Bank of India likely conducted sell-buy swaps for maturity in one-to-four months, in order to absorb surplus rupee liquidity from the banking system, dealers said. This was the RBI's third consecutive day of holding sell-buy swaps in the forwards market, as per dealers.  

 

At 1305 IST, the one-month dollar-rupee forward premium was at 3.08%, up from 3.0% Thursday. On an absolute basis, the one-month exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium was 23.93 paise, against 23.50 paise Thursday.

 

"RBI's paying has continued today as well," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "This was broadly expected. Although, I don't think the quantum is too big." Under a sell-buy swap, the RBI sells dollars for immediate delivery and simultaneously buys them for delivery at maturity, thereby absorbing rupee liquidity from the banking system. 

 

The RBI's net liquidity absorbed – a proxy for the banking system liquidity surplus – was INR 10.43 trillion Thursday, little changed from INR 10.50 trillion Wednesday. The RBI has also been conducting variable rate reverse repo auctions to absorb surplus liquidity from the banking system.

 

Meanwhile, some banks sold dollars for forward delivery, noting the recent jump in premium levels, which limited gains for the premiums, dealers said. The one-month forward premium has surged almost 80 basis points this week, while the one-year premium has risen over 30 bps. "We are seeing some recieving interest but overall it's not much," a dealer at a foreign bank said. "Looking at the oil prices, I think exporters will like to sit on side."

 

At 1305 IST, the one-year forward premium was at 3.36%, up from 3.34% Thursday. On an absolute basis, the one-year exact-period forward premium was 321.75 paise, against 319.19 paise Thursday. (Pratiksha) 

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Sept 11

 

NEW DELHI – At 1115 IST, the rupee was at 95.6800 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 95.6900 a dollar, against the previous close of 95.4400. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and a brokerage: 

 

Participant	S2	S1	R1	R2
Public-sector bank	96.00	95.80	95.35	95.20
Private-sector bank	-	95.80	95.50	-
Brokerage firm	96.00	95.80	95.20	95.10
Brokerage firm	96.00	95.80	95.25	95.10

 

(Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Slumps as crude prices jump close to $110/bbl; RBI limits fall

 

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	AT 0940 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.6800	95.6900	95.6600	95.7925	95.4400

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee slumped against the dollar, in line with its Asian peers, as price of Brent crude oil surged closed to the $110-per-barrel mark owing to worries about further disruptions to already tight supplies in West Asia following attacks on shipping, dealers said.  

 

Price of Brent crude oil surged over 6% Thursday after Iran-aligned Houthis seized control of Yemen's port of Mocha, posing a further risk to Red Sea traffic. At 0940 IST, Brent crude oil futures for November delivery were at $108.40 a barrel, up from $107.63 a barrel Thursday and $101.21 a barrel Wednesday. It rose to a near four-month high of $109.97 a barrel in early trade. 

 

"Rupee is falling because of crude. There seems to be no respite on that front," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "Equities are also a negative for rupee." At 0940 IST, the Nifty 50 and Sensex were down 1% and 0.9%, respectively. 

 

However, losses for the Indian unit were limited as the Reserve Bank of India likely stepped in to sell dollars around 95.79 a dollar, dealers said. The RBI's intervention, however, was not aggressive in nature, they added. "We are seeing support around 95.80, but not sure how long that will sustain," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "I think RBI will try to hold 95.80 for some time as after that 96.00 will be imminent." 

 

While the central bank has been selling dollars in the spot market to support the Indian unit for the last few weeks, it appears reluctant towards heavily defending the rupee for the last three days, dealers said. For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 95.50-95.90. Dealers see strong technical support for the rupee at 95.80 a dollar. (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Sept 11

 

NEW DELHI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Friday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Public-sector bank	95.75	95.25
Public-sector bank	95.65	95.30
Private-sector bank	95.90	95.40
Private-sector bank	95.80	95.40
Foreign bank	95.90	95.45
Brokerage firm	95.75	95.25
Brokerage firm	95.74	95.44

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Pratiksha) 

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most down as crude, US bond yields jump; US CPI eyed

 

NEW DELHI – Most Asian currencies fell against the dollar Friday as worries about further energy supply disruptions in West Asia pushed up US bond yields and crude oil prices. A fall in Asian equities, tracking the Wall Street, also weighed on the currencies. 

 

Price of Brent crude oil surged over 6% Thursday after Iran-aligned Houthis seized control of Yemen's port of Mocha, posing a further risk to Red Sea traffic. The sharp rise in crude oil prices has raised concern that a prolonged war in West Asia could keep inflation higher, leading to policy tightening from central banks across the globe. Market participants now await the release of US CPI data later Friday, one of the last major economic data points due before the Federal Reserve meets next week.

 

At 0815 IST, Brent crude oil futures for November delivery were at $107.73 a barrel, up from $107.63 a barrel Thursday and $101.21 a barrel Wednesday. It rose to a near four-month high of $109.97 a barrel in early trade. 

 

The Indonesian rupiah fell 0.4% to 17,608 against the dollar, the most among its Asian peers, while both the Taiwan dollar and Phillipine peso fell 0.3% to 31.65 and 62.73 a dollar, respectively. The Malaysian ringgit fell 0.3% to 4.08 against the greenback and the Thai baht was down 0.1% at 33.15. 

 

Bucking the trend, the South Korean won was up 0.2% at 1,346.92 against the US unit. Kim Jong-hwa, board member of the Bank of Korea, said on Thursday the central bank would assess external and internal policy ‌conditions, including the impact of the previous two rate hikes, to determine the timing and pace of further tightening. "I think it is necessary to assess changes in external and internal conditions to determine the timing and pace of additional hikes," Jong-hwa said. The Chinese yuan was flat around 6.71 a dollar. (Pratiksha)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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