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Informist, Thursday, Sept. 10, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil

 

MUMBAI – The rupee continued to fall for a third day, ending Thursday at a two-week low against the dollar, as crude oil prices stayed above $100 per barrel, dealers said. The Indian currency was also weighed down by continuous dollar purchases by oil marketing companies and foreign portfolio investors, they said.

 

The rupee's fall was limited as the Reserve Bank of India intervened in a mild way to support the currency, they said. "The RBI was selling (dollars) around the 94.30 (a dollar) level. That is why the rupee held that level for some time. Later, demand for dollars came in heavily and broke every (dollar-rupee) resistance level," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. 

 

After hitting a high of 95.1700 during the day, the rupee settled at 95.4400 a dollar, down 0.35% from Wednesday's close. The Indian currency has fallen 1.02% this week as crude oil prices have shot up to a six-week high and the RBI toned down its interventions. The rupee was the worst performer amongst Asian currencies for a second day, with the Taiwan dollar right behind.

 

The Indian currency started the day on a weaker footing, opening 15 paise lower from its previous close, as risk appetite was dampened by rising crude oil prices. The focus for the foreign exchange market has now shifted to geopolitical developments and crude oil prices after drawing support in the previous week from higher-than-expected foreign currency non-resident (banks) deposits of $127.23 billion.

 

Brent crude oil futures for November delivery rose to $102.20 per barrel as the market saw no near-term end to the conflict in West Asia, which has disrupted oil flows through two vital waterways, the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. Iran Wednesday said it had attacked 10 ships near the Strait of Hormuz after the US sank five Iranian oil tankers, in the biggest wave of attacks on shipping by both sides since the start of the war nearly six months ago. Iran said it was prepared for a more intense war and would escalate counterstrikes if the US continued to attack its territory and infrastructure.

 

Banks persistently bought dollars on behalf of companies, largely oil marketing companies, fearing further depreciation of the rupee and a rise in crude oil prices, dealers said. Strong foreign portfolio outflows from domestic markets also weighed on the Indian currency, they said. FPIs have net sold $1.09 billion in equities and debt markets so far in September, compared with net investments of $1.87 billion in August.

 

The central bank likely sold dollars at multiple levels to prevent a sharp depreciation in the Indian currency, dealers said. "The RBI was selling mildly till 95.20-95.30, but after that they allowed the rupee to fall. They can't keep defending the rupee," a dealer at a private-sector bank said.

 

Meanwhile, the dollar index edged higher ahead of key US inflation data due later in the day. At 1530 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.83, compared with 98.78 Wednesday.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.4400	95.2500	95.1700	95.4675	95.1050
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	319.19	306.66	322.19	306.66	302.16

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium rose to its highest level since May 26 as the RBI likely conducted dollar-rupee sell-buy swaps to absorb surplus liquidity from the banking system. The central bank is likely to have conducted the transaction in one- and two-month tenures, similar to Wednesday, they said. 

 

"These swaps are leading to sharp rise in premiums. But the RBI is looking at many factors, liquidity being the main one, along with their forward books. Down the line, the RBI will have to take hit somewhere," the dealer said.

 

Following the likely swaps, the one-month and two-month dollar-rupee forward premiums surged intraday, respectively, by 58 basis points to 3.19% and 46 basis points to 3.36%. Dollar-rupee forward premiums also rose across tenures as banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, fearing a further rise in crude oil prices, dealers said.

 

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium was over a three-month high at 3.34% at 1530 IST, from 3.16% Wednesday. On an absolute basis, the one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium was 319.19 paise, against 302.16 paise Wednesday.

 

OUTLOOK

Friday, the rupee will track the price of crude oil after it breached $102 per barrel amid the worsening situation in West Asia. Developments in the war between the US and Iran and any progress in restoring shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will also be closely watched.

 

The rupee is also likely to track the dollar index as investors await US CPI data, due later in the day, which could influence the dollar and the US Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook. The Fed's policy decision is scheduled for Sept. 15, with the underlying market bias increasingly pricing in the possibility of a rate hike. 

 

Dealers expect importers' dollar purchases to weigh on the rupee. However, the RBI's intervention in the market amid record high foreign exchange reserves will decide traders' next move, they said. "I think there is high possibility that rupee may touch 95.80 tomorrow, if crude keeps rising and global factors don't calm down. US inflation data will also be a key factor," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. 

 

Dealers see strong technical support for the rupee at 95.80 per dollar. The rupee is expected to move in the range of 95.30-95.80 per dollar Friday.

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India Rupee: One-year premium jumps on RBI's likely dlr-rupee sell-buy swap

 

	AT 1415 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.4100	95.2500	95.1700	95.3175	95.1050
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	321.89	306.66	321.89	306.66	302.16

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium rose to its highest level since May 26 as the RBI likely conducted dollar-rupee sell-buy swaps to absorb surplus liquidity from the banking system. The central bank is likely to have conducted the transaction in one- and two-month tenures, similar to Wednesday, they said. 

 

Following the likely swaps, the one-month and two-month dollar-rupee forward premiums surged, respectively, by 58 basis points to 3.19% and 46 basis points to 3.36%. Dollar-rupee forward premiums also rose across tenures as banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, fearing that crude oil prices may rise further, dealers said. Brent crude oil prices stayed firm at $100 per barrel Thursday following continuing escalations in the war in West Asia.

 

The rupee slumped against the dollar as importers bought the greenback aggressively amid a sharp rise in crude oil prices. The RBI's dollar sales kept the dollar-rupee below the 95.45 level.

 

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium was over a three-month high at 3.36% at 1415 IST, from 3.16% Wednesday. On an absolute basis, the one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium was 321.89 paise, against 302.16 paise Wednesday.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Cuts some losses as RBI sells dollars; crude above $100/bbl weighs

 

	AT 1215 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.2175	95.2500	95.1700	95.3175	95.1050

 

MUMBAI – The rupee pared some losses as public sector banks sold dollars, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, dealers said. The RBI's mild intervention limited the rupee's fall to 95.32 a dollar, they said.

 

"The RBI can't keep defending the rupee when crude has shot up. There is no point in holding the spot at same level by selling (dollars) aggressively," a dealer at a private sector bank said.

 

The rupee's focus has shifted to geopolitical developments and movements in crude oil prices. The Indian currency remained around 15 paise weaker from Wednesday's close as crude oil prices surged following an escalation in the West Asia conflict. At 1215 IST, Brent crude oil futures for November delivery were at $100.35 a barrel, down from $101.21 on Wednesday. Brent prices have risen over 7% so far this month.

 

Amid continued global uncertainty, banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, largely oil marketing companies, which put further pressure on the Indian currency, dealers said.

 

Banks also bought dollars on behalf of foreign portfolio investors, weighing on the rupee. FPIs turned net sellers in September after buying in the Indian market for three consecutive months through August. They have net sold $1.09 billion in equities and debt markets so far in September, against net investments of $1.87 billion in August.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 95.00-95.35 a dollar. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 95.35 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Sept 10

 

MUMBAI – At 1230 IST, the rupee was at 95.2150 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 95.2500 a dollar, against the previous close of 95.1050. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and a brokerage: 

 

Participant	S2	S1	R1	R2
Public-sector bank	95.45	95.35	95.00	94.90
Private-sector bank	95.50	95.30	95.05	94.95
Private-sector bank	95.40	95.30	95.00	94.90
Foreign bank	95.40	95.30	95.00	94.80
Brokerage firm	95.45	95.35	95.10	95.00

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Falls sharply on high crude prices; RBI's dollar sales speculated

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.3075	95.2500	95.2450	95.3175	95.1050

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell sharply against the dollar as crude oil prices stayed firm after it rose past $100 per barrel in the previous session as US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz intensified following fresh attacks, dealers said. The Indian unit's near-term bias is tilted towards weakness amid persistent dollar demand from importers and higher crude oil prices, they said. 

 

"Importers are aggressively buying (dollars) now. It's not just oil importers, there are other importers as well today. So the rupee may fall towards 95.50 (per dollar), if the RBI doesn't intervene," a dealer at a public sector bank said.

 

Iran Tuesday said it had attacked 10 ships near the Strait of Hormuz after the US sank five Iranian oil tankers, in the biggest wave of attacks on shipping by both sides since the start of the six-month-old war. Iran said it was ready for a more intense war and will escalate counterstrikes if the US continues attacking its territory and infrastructure. 

 

Some dealers speculate that public sector banks sold dollars for the Reserve Bank of India, which limited the rupee's fall to 95.31 a dollar. Noting Wednesday's intervention, dealers said the central bank may not protect a particular level, but manage excess volatility in the market.  

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 95.00-95.40. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 95.35 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Sept 10

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Thursday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Private-sector bank	95.40	94.90
Private-sector bank	95.25	95.05
Private-sector bank	95.50	95.00
Foreign bank	95.40	95.00
Foreign bank	95.30	95.00
Brokerage firm	95.50	94.90
Brokerage firm	95.36	95.00
Brokerage firm	95.44	95.02

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most fall as oil stays above $100/bbl; weak dollar helps

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies fell against the dollar as oil prices held firm after Brent crude breached $100 a barrel, with traders expecting deeper supply disruptions as the war in West Asia expands. Several projectiles were hit in Iran's Sirik, with multiple explosions heard across the coastal region, Iranian media reported. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump claimed that the ongoing war would end immediately after the US November midterm elections. At 0830 IST, Brent crude oil futures for November delivery were at $101.00 a barrel, slightly down from $101.21 a barrel Wednesday.

 

The weaker global dollar gave some support to Asian currencies. Traders await the US producer price index data due later in the day and consumer price index data Friday, which will provide a clear direction for the dollar. 

 

The Indonesian rupiah fell the most among regional currencies. The rupiah was 0.3% down at 17,547 per dollar after it hit a four-month high on Wednesday after the latest Consumer Survey conducted by Bank Indonesia in August indicated that consumer confidence in economic conditions increased compared with July. This was reflected by an optimistic Consumer Confidence Index of 118.5 in August, up from 116.8 in July. 

 

The Philippine peso and Thai baht were broadly steady at 62.46 and 32.86 per dollar Thursday. The Taiwan dollar fell marginally at 31.50 per dollar. The Chinese yuan also fell slightly to 6.71 a dollar.   

 

Bucking the trend, the South Korean won rose slightly to 1,337.68 per dollar, reaching its strongest level since October 2024.  (Divya Moolayattil) 

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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