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Informist, Wednesday, Sept. 9, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil

 

MUMBAI – The rupee ended sharply lower at an over one-week low against the dollar Wednesday with banks actively buying dollars for importers as Brent crude oil price rose over $100 per barrel, dealers said. However, state-owned banks also sold dollars, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, which brought the Indian unit off the day's low.

 

"There was huge dollar buying in the market as crude oil reached 100 (dollars per barrel) after a long time," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "Foreign investors are seen exiting the Indian market this month. Today's volatility just showed the reality of our currency."

 

After hitting a low of 95.2225 a dollar earlier in the day, the rupee settled at 95.1050 Wednesday, down 0.3% from the previous close. The currency moved in a range of 36 paise during the day. The Indian unit turned out to be the worst performer among Asian currencies, while the Indonesian rupiah was the best performer.

 

The rupee started the day lower against the greenback and fell further shortly thereafter as banks rushed to buy dollars on behalf of importers on fears that crude oil prices could rise more. Continuous dollar purchases led to stop-losses being triggered on short dollar bets at 95 per dollar, dragging the rupee to an over one-week low of 95.2225 a dollar, they said.

 

Brent crude oil went past $100 a barrel as the US-Iran war intensified. This weighed on market sentiment. The US military Tuesday said it had destroyed five Iranian oil tankers in retaliation for attempted strikes by Iran on a US Navy warship. At 1530 IST, Brent crude oil for November delivery was at $100.73 a barrel, up from $97.92 Tuesday.

 

"A relentless four-day surge in global oil prices has reignited inflationary fears for India, pushing the Rupee into defensive territory," Dilip Parmar, senior research analyst, HDFC Securities, said in a note. 

 

The conflict also widened as Houthis attacked Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure, raising concern about more disruption to energy supplies, which could push crude oil prices still higher.

 

Dealers also said banks bought dollars for equity-related bulk deals, adding to pressure on the rupee. The Indian unit retraced the rise recorded in the previous week, when positive sentiment was supported by robust dollar inflows through foreign currency non-resident (banks) deposits and active dollar sales by the RBI.

 

The rupee erased a fall of around 12 paise as public-sector banks stepped in to sell dollars, likely on behalf of the RBI, dealers said. The central bank likely sold dollars at multiple levels to prevent a sharp depreciation in the currency, according to dealers. Market participants had expected the RBI to actively support the rupee as it has been doing for a week and prevent it going past 95 to a dollar. The RBI intervention was mild, however.

 

Noting a sharp depreciation of the Indian unit, some exporters also stepped in to sell dollars, which supported the local currency, dealers said. However, most exporters remained on the sidelines as they expect the rupee to fall further, they said.

 

The Indian currency was also weighed down by a fall in domestic equities, as per dealers. Wednesday, the Nifty 50 closed 0.8% lower and the BSE Sensex ended 1.1% down.

 

Meanwhile, the dollar index edged lower ahead of key US inflation data Friday. At 1530 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.78, down from 98.84 Tuesday.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.1050	94.8725	94.8600	95.2225	94.8175
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	302.15	290.25	302.56	290.25	289.00

 

FORWARDS 

The benchmark one-year dollar-rupee forward premium rose to an over three-month high at 3.16% Wednesday from 3.05% the previous day as the RBI likely conducted dollar-rupee sell-buy swaps to absorb surplus liquidity from the banking system. A few dealers said the central bank may have purchased forward dollars worth around $1 billion-$2 billion in one- and two-month tenures.

 

Dollar-rupee forward premiums also rose across tenures as banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, fearing that crude oil prices may rise further, dealers said.

 

On an absolute basis, the one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium was 302.15 paise, against 289.00 paise Tuesday.

 

OUTLOOK

Thursday, the rupee will track the price of crude oil as it breached $100 per barrel amid the worsening situation in West Asia. Developments in the war between the US and Iran and any progress in restoring shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will also be closely watched.

 

The rupee is also likely to track the dollar index as investors await US inflation data, due Friday, which could influence the dollar and the US Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook. The Fed's policy decision is scheduled for Sept. 15, with the underlying market bias increasingly pricing in the possibility of a rate hike. The European Central Bank is scheduled to release its monetary policy decision Thursday. The market has priced in a high chance of a 25 basis-point increase in the policy rate to 2.50%.

 

Dealers expect importers' dollar purchases to weigh on the rupee. However, the RBI's intervention in the market amid record high foreign exchange reserves will decide traders' next move. The market will also keep an eye on the RBI's steps to drain excess liquidity from the system.

 

Dealers see strong technical support for the rupee at 95.35 per dollar. The rupee is expected to move in the range of 94.80-95.35 per dollar Thursday.

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India Rupee - World FX: Dlr index near 4-mo low; mkt eyes US inflation data

 

	AT 1430 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3544	1.3568	1.3537	1.3534
EUR/USD	1.1634	1.1649	1.1625	1.1626
NZD/USD	0.5845	0.5865	0.5845	0.5851
AUD/USD	0.7224	0.7238	0.7218	0.7218
USD/JPY	153.5930	153.9700	152.9420	153.8310
USD/CAD	1.3777	1.3786	1.3767	1.3783
EUR/JPY	178.6980	178.9790	178.0660	178.8770
CHF/USD	1.2354	1.2380	1.2352	1.2350
EUR/CHF	0.9417	0.9419	0.9405	0.9408

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index remained near a four-month low as traders awaited key US CPI data due Friday. However, rising expectations of a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve supported the greenback. Market-implied odds of a 25 basis-point rate hike at the Fed's September meeting stood at 60% Wednesday, up from 44.4% a month ago. The worsening situation in West Asia also boosted safe-haven demand for the dollar.

 

However, the dollar remained under pressure against the yen after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned traders against betting on further weakness in the Japanese currency. The yen continued to strengthen against the dollar Wednesday, holding near a seven-month high. The yen rose 0.2% to 153.57 per dollar.

 

The euro and the pound sterling rose marginally to $1.1636 and $1.3545, respectively. Investors awaited the European Central Bank's policy decision due Thursday, with markets widely expecting a 25 bp rate hike.

 

The Canadian dollar edged lower to 1.378 per dollar, while the Australian dollar rose slightly.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: One-year premium at 3-month high as importers buy fwd dollars

 

	AT 1400 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.0575	94.8725	94.8600	95.2225	94.8175
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	299.66	290.25	299.86	290.25	289.00

 

MUMBAI – Dollar-rupee forward premiums rose across most tenures as banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, fearing that crude oil prices may rise further, dealers said. The Brent crude oil price hit a six-week high of $100 per barrel Wednesday because of the worsening conflict between the US and Iran. The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium hit a three-month high of 3.14% or 299.86 paise. 

 

The rupee fell to a low of 95.2225 a dollar on aggressive dollar purchases by importers amid higher crude oil prices. However, the Reserve Bank of India's likely intervention through dollar sales limited the further fall of the rupee, dealers said. 

 

The rise of dollar-rupee forward premiums was limited as banks sold forward dollars noting the surplus rupee liquidity in the banking system, dealers said. The net liquidity absorbed from the banking system by the RBI, an indication of the liquidity surplus, rose to INR 10.49 trillion Tuesday from INR 10.36 trillion Monday, according to the latest data. 

 

There is surplus liquidity in the system as banks used the RBI's swap window to offload dollars from robust inflows into the foreign currency non-resident (banks) deposit scheme. While the RBI's concessional swap facility garnered $136.4 billion, over 90% of the inflows were through FCNR(B) deposits at $127.2 billion. The swap window for FCNR(B) deposits is scheduled to close Friday.

 

The one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium was 3.13% at 1400 IST, up sharply from Tuesday's close of 3.05%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 299.66 paise, against 289.86 paise Tuesday.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee:Cuts some losses as RBI intervenes; dlr demand, FX outflow weigh

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.1100	94.8725	94.8600	95.2225	94.8175

 

MUMBAI – The rupee erased some losses as public sector banks sold dollars, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, dealers said. Earlier in the day, the rupee had plunged to an over one-week low at 95.2225 per dollar as banks bought dollars for importers amid concern that crude oil prices could soon breach $100 per barrel.

 

"It is surprising that the rupee breached 95.20 today. There is aggressive buying from importers, but the RBI entered the market and the rupee (USD/INR) dropped 15 paise," a dealer at a private sector bank said.

 

Dealers also said banks bought dollars for equity-related bulk deals, adding to pressure on the rupee. While some other dealers said the sharp depreciation of the rupee was due to foreign fund outflows in government bonds. 

 

Brent crude oil prices remained near $99 a barrel as the US-Iran war intensified. The US military said Tuesday that it had destroyed five Iranian oil tankers in retaliation for attempted strikes by Iran on a US Navy warship, adding to a recent escalation in fighting. At 1200 IST, Brent crude oil for November delivery was at $99.17 a barrel, up from $97.92 on Tuesday.

 

The conflict also widened as Houthis attacked Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure, raising concern that further disruption to energy supplies could push crude prices higher.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 95.00-95.25. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 95.20 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Sept 9

 

MUMBAI – At 1115 IST, the rupee was at 95.1750 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 94.8725 a dollar, against the previous close of 94.8175. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and a brokerage: 

 

Participant	S2	S1	R1	R2
Public-sector bank	95.35	95.25	94.70	94.50
Private-sector bank	95.30	95.20	94.80	94.70
Private-sector bank	95.35	95.20	94.75	94.65
Brokerage firm	95.35	95.25	94.80	94.70

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Falls on importer demand as oil nears $100/bbl; RBI limits fall

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.9500	94.8725	94.9525	95.8600	94.8175

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell slightly against the dollar as crude oil prices remained elevated near $99 per barrel amid escalating tensions in West Asia. "The focus has now shifted to crude oil prices as they are near $100 a barrel after a long time. We will have to see how much the RBI intervenes," a dealer at a public sector bank said.

 

However, the rupee's fall was limited to 94.94 per dollar as public sector banks sold dollars, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, dealers said. The RBI's intervention was mild, with the central bank seen protecting the 94.96-per-dollar level, they said.

 

Banks bought dollars for importers, mainly oil marketing companies, amid concern that crude prices could rise further. The rupee had fallen 33 paise in the previous session amid aggressive dollar demand from importers, marking its biggest single-day decline in seven weeks.

 

Some dealers said dollar purchases by importers may not be as strong as in the previous session, as Tuesday's buying was largely a knee-jerk reaction to crude oil nearing $100 a barrel. With crude prices remaining around the same level today, importers may not step up dollar purchases significantly, they said.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 94.80-94.98. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 94.98 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Sept 9

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Wednesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Public-sector bank	95.00	94.60
Private-sector bank	94.95	94.65
Private-sector bank	94.98	94.70
Private-sector bank	94.95	94.66
Foreign bank	94.98	94.70
Brokerage firm	95.00	94.60
Brokerage firm	94.95	94.60
Brokerage firm	94.94	94.72

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Mixed as dollar steadies; mkt eyes US inflation data

 

MUMBAI – Asian currencies traded mixed in early trade Wednesday as the dollar index steadied around 98.80 ahead of the key US Consumer Price Index data due Friday. The data could influence expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest-rate trajectory and could lend direction to the dollar. Market-implied odds of a rate hike at the Fed's September meeting stood at 60%, up from 44.4% a month ago.

 

Brent crude oil prices traded near the $100-per-barrel mark Wednesday as the US and Iran traded missiles, adding pressure to the import bills of Asian countries that are heavily dependent on imported crude oil. The US military said Tuesday that it had destroyed five Iranian oil tankers in retaliation for strikes by Iran on a US Navy warship. At 0830 IST, Brent crude oil for November delivery was at $99.40 a barrel, up from $97.92 Tuesday.

 

The Philippine peso extended its losses for the second consecutive day and fell marginally to 62.44 per dollar Wednesday. The peso closed at a new record low Tuesday as investors positioned themselves ahead of US inflation data and increasing bets that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates. 

 

The Chinese yuan also inched down against the dollar at 6.707 per dollar. The Japanese yen continued to rise against the dollar, holding near its highest level in almost seven months after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned traders against betting against the currency. The Bank of Japan is broadly expected to raise interest rates next week, which further supported the yen. The yen rose marginally to 153.55 per dollar Wednesday. 

 

The Taiwan dollar, Indonesian rupiah and South Korean won were steady against the dollar, while the Malaysian ringgit fell 0.2% on foreign stock outflows.  (Divya Moolayattil)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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