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Informist, Tuesday, Sept. 8, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil

 

MUMBAI – The rupee posted its biggest single-day fall in seven weeks Tuesday as crude oil prices surged after Saudi Arabia reported attacks that halted operations at several energy facilities in the south of the kingdom. Banks' dollar purchases for importers also weighed on the Indian currency. However, dollar sales by the Reserve Bank of India through state-owned banks limited the rupee's fall, dealers said.

 

"There was completely one-sided buying today. The RBI tried to defend 94.75 (per dollar), but it can't defend the rupee permanently when crude is nearing $100 (per barrel)," a dealer at a private-sector bank said.

 

The rupee settled at 94.8175 a dollar Tuesday, down 0.4% from the previous close. It moved in a relatively wide range of 38 paise during the day, compared with a range of just 10 paise last week. While most Asian currencies fell marginally, the rupee declined sharply, making it the worst-performing currency in the region.

 

The rupee also erased most of the gains made in the previous week, when positive sentiment was supported by robust dollar inflows through foreign currency non-resident (banks) deposits and active dollar sales by the RBI.

 

The rupee opened slightly lower as banks bought dollars for importers, taking advantage of relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, while the absence of significant dollar sales in the market added to the pressure, dealers said. Demand for dollars nearly doubled from the previous session. Monday, dollar demand had fallen with US markets shut for Labor Day. The demand Tuesday came largely from defence and oil importers, they said.

 

However, the Indian currency's fall was limited as public-sector banks sold dollars, likely on behalf of the RBI, around 94.70 per dollar, dealers said. The rupee held near the 94.70 per-dollar level for much of the day before rising crude oil prices put renewed pressure on the currency.

 

Brent crude oil price for November delivery rose to a six-week high of $99.46 per barrel during the day. At 1530 IST, Brent was at $98.66 per barrel, up from $97.00 Monday.

 

The rise in crude oil prices came amid concern that fighting between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis could disrupt shipping through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a critical route for the oil and global trade. The concerns come as the US-Iran war has nearly halted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway that carried about a fifth of global oil shipments before the war.

 

"The domestic cues are still positive, but global factors are playing out now," the dealer said. "If we look at the graph of crude oil prices and the Indian rupee, they will be identical. That is how closely crude and rupee is related."

 

Domestic equities also fell sharply, weighing on the rupee. The absence of foreign inflows added to the pressure on the currency, dealers said. At 1530 IST, the Sensex and Nifty 50 were down 0.7% and 0.6%, respectively.

 

The dollar also drew support from safe-haven demand amid heightened geopolitical tensions. At 1530 IST, the dollar index was at 98.95, compared with 98.90 Monday. Market participants will now focus on US CPI inflation data, due Friday, which could provide cues on the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the dollar's near-term direction.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.8175	94.5100	94.5100	94.8875	95.4850
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	289.00	290.50	292.16	288.00	290.39

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium inched lower for the second consecutive day as banks availed the RBI's concessional swap facility for dollar inflows into three- to five-year foreign currency non-resident (banks) deposits, adding to surplus rupee liquidity in the market, dealers said.

 

Surplus liquidity in the banking system remained above INR 10 trillion Monday. The RBI's concessional swap facility garnered $136.4 billion, with banks mobilising around $127.2 billion through FCNR(B) deposits. The swap window for these deposits is scheduled to close Friday.

 

However, the fall in dollar-rupee forward premiums was limited as banks bought forward dollars for importers looking to take advantage of relatively lower dollar-rupee levels and hedge against a further rise in crude oil prices.

 

The one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium at 1530 IST was 3.05%, lower than Monday's close of 3.07%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 289.00 paise, against 290.39 paise Monday.

 

OUTLOOK

Wednesday, the rupee will track the price of crude oil as it nears $100 per barrel amid the worsening situation in West Asia. Developments in the war between the US and Iran and any progress in restoring shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will also be closely watched.

 

The rupee is also likely to track the dollar index as investors await US inflation data, due Friday, which could influence the dollar and the Fed's interest rate outlook. The Fed's policy decision is scheduled for Sept. 15, with the underlying market bias increasingly pricing in the possibility of a rate hike.

 

Dealers expect importers' dollar purchases to weigh on the rupee. However, the RBI's intervention in the market amid record high foreign exchange reserves will decide traders' next move. The market will also keep an eye on the RBI's steps to drain excess liquidity from the system.

 

Dealers see strong technical support for the rupee at 94.90 per dollar. The rupee is expected to move in the range of 94.50-94.90 per dollar Wednesday.

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India Rupee - World FX: Dollar steadies as market eyes US inflation data

 

	AT 1400 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3531	1.3553	1.3522	1.3541
EUR/USD	1.1615	1.1636	1.1609	1.1623
NZD/USD	0.5841	0.5885	0.5836	0.5876
AUD/USD	0.7210	0.7223	0.7206	0.7218
USD/JPY	153.8950	154.3720	152.8900	154.3550
USD/CAD	1.3793	1.3817	1.3776	1.3812
EUR/JPY	178.7410	179.4400	177.8580	179.3940
CHF/USD	1.2334	1.2380	1.2324	1.2352
EUR/CHF	0.9416	0.9420	0.9399	0.9407

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index was steady Tuesday as markets awaited the US CPI data Friday. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen climbed to a seven-month high against the dollar as traders continued to unwind short positions amid growing bets of an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan.

 

The Japanese yen rose 0.3% to 153.92 per dollar Tuesday. The yen strengthened ‌to as much as 153.53 per dollar in morning trade, surpassing levels reached during Japan's July intervention. The dollar index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.95 from 98.90 Monday.

 

Crude oil prices neared $100 per barrel as tensions rose between the US and Iran. A Qatari official said opening the Strait of Hormuz is a priority, as the world faces an "industrial catastrophe" if the crisis in the region continues. At 1400 IST, Brent crude oil for November futures was at $99.11 per barrel, up from $97.00 Monday.  

 

The euro and sterling rose marginally to $1.1612 and $1.3527, respectively. Investors await the European Central Bank's policy meeting decision Thursday, with markets widely expecting a 25-basis-point interest rate hike.

 

The Australian dollar was flat at 1.3865 per dollar while the Canadian dollar was up 0.1% at 1.379 per dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: 1-year premium down on high liquidity; importers' forward dollar buys aid

 

	At 1330 IST	At 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.7450	94.5100	94.5100	94.7525	95.4850
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	289.00	290.50	292.16	288.66	290.39

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premiums inched lower for the second consecutive day as banks availed of the Reserve Bank of India's concessional swap facility for dollar inflows into three- to five-year foreign currency non-resident (banks) deposits, adding to surplus rupee liquidity in the market, dealers said.

 

Surplus liquidity in the banking system remained above INR 10 trillion Monday. The RBI's concessional swap facility garnered $136.4 billion, with banks mobilising around $127.2 billion through FCNR(B) deposits. The swap window for these deposits is scheduled to close on Friday.

 

However, the fall in dollar-rupee forward premiums was limited as banks bought forward dollars for importers looking to take advantage of relatively lower dollar-rupee levels and hedge against a further rise in crude oil prices. "There was some demand in forwards, but not as much as seen in the spot market. A lot of buying in forwards has happened in the last fortnight," a dealer at a private-sector bank said.

 

The rupee rose sharply in the spot market as banks bought dollars after crude oil prices neared $99 a barrel amid heightened tensions in West Asia, dealers said. A rise in US Treasury yields also weighed on dollar-rupee forward premiums. The 10-year US Treasury yield was at 4.81% at 1330 IST, compared with 4.78% Friday. US markets were shut Monday for Labor Day.

 

The one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium at the same time was 3.05%, lower than Monday's close of 3.07%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 289.00 paise, against 290.39 paise Monday.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Falls more as importers buy dollars after crude crosses $98/bbl

 

	AT 1230 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.7350	94.5100	94.5100	94.7375	94.4850

 

--Dealers: Some PSU banks' dollar sales, likely for RBI, limit rupee fall 

--Dealers: Some PSU banks selling dollars, likely for RBI, around 94.72/$1 

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell sharply against the dollar Tuesday as banks bought the greenback for importers amid a sharp rise in crude oil prices, dealers said. "There is huge buying pressure because crude has crossed $98 (a barrel). Dollar sales from the market are also missing today, which is why the rupee breached 94.70," a dealer at a public sector bank said.

 

However, the rupee's fall was limited as public sector banks sold dollars, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, around 94.70 per dollar, dealers said. The rupee weakened despite expectations that the RBI would continue to support the currency through dollar sales, as it had done over the previous two sessions. The rupee moved in a 21-paise range during the day.

 

Brent crude oil rose to a nearly six-week high of over $98 a barrel amid rising tensions between the US and Iran. At 1230 IST, Brent crude oil for November delivery was at $98.40 a barrel, up from $97.00 on Monday. A Qatari official said reopening the Strait of Hormuz was a priority and warned that a prolonged crisis could lead to an "industrial catastrophe."

 

Domestic equities also fell sharply, weighing on the rupee, dealers said. The absence of foreign fund inflows also contributed to the currency's decline, they said. At 1230 IST, the Sensex and Nifty were down 0.7% and 0.6%, respectively.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 94.50-94.80. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 94.75 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil) 

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Sept 8

 

MUMBAI – At 1130 IST, the rupee was at 94.7125 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 94.5100 a dollar, against the previous close of 94.4850. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and a brokerage: 

 

Participant	S2	S1	R1	R2
Public-sector bank	94.80	94.75	94.45	94.35
Private-sector bank	94.80	94.75	94.50	94.30
Private-sector bank	94.85	94.80	94.45	94.35
Brokerage firm	94.88	94.80	94.50	94.40

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Down sharply on importers dlr purchase, higher crude oil price

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.6525	94.5100	94.5100	94.6775	94.4850

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell sharply against the dollar as banks bought the greenback for importers, taking advantage of relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, while lack of dollar sales in the market added to the pressure, dealers said. "Yesterday (Monday) was a dollar holiday, so there wasn't much activity. Today, payments will be double, and moreover, the RBI is not seen in the market now," a dealer at a public sector bank said.

 

Crude oil prices rose above $97 a barrel as shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz plummeted after the US and Iran struck vessels in the key waterway. Brent crude oil futures for November delivery rose to a nearly six-week high of $97.57 a barrel at 0930 IST, compared with $97.00 on Monday.

 

The rupee fell swiftly after breaking the key support level of 94.50 per dollar. Dealers expect the Reserve Bank of India to intervene and limit the rupee's fall, keeping it around 94.75 per dollar.

 

A fall in dollar index to a more than a two-week low of 98.80 from 98.90 Monday supported the Indian unit. The index extended losses for a second straight session as the yen strengthened to around 153 per dollar, above its pre-war levels. Traders now await US inflation data due this week for cues on the Federal Reserve's interest-rate trajectory and the dollar's direction.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in a range of 94.50-94.80. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 94.75 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil) 

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Sept 8

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Tuesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Public-sector bank	94.60	94.35
Private-sector bank	94.60	94.30
Private-sector bank	94.60	94.30
Foreign bank	94.60	94.30
Brokerage firm	94.65	94.35
Brokerage firm	94.66	95.33

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Rise as dollar index weakens; Japanese yen up most

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies rose in early trade Tuesday as the dollar index weakened, with the Japanese yen, which has a weight of 13.6% in the index, strengthening nearly 2% so far this week. At 0830 IST, the index was at 98.80, down from 98.90 Monday. Traders await US inflation data due this week for a clearer picture of the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory and dollar direction. 

 

The Japanese yen rose above pre-war levels, surpassing the peak reached after coordinated intervention by Japan and the US. The yen extended gains to 153.20 per dollar as traders bet on the Bank of Japan's rate hike at its September meeting. The yen rose the most among the regional peers Tuesday. 

 

The South Korean won rose 0.5% to 1338.96 per dollar, reaching its strongest level since October 2024, as strong export earnings supported the currency. Continued foreign investment in Korean equities also supported demand for the won. 

 

The Philippine peso rose marginally to 62.53 per dollar Tuesday. The Thai baht and Taiwan dollar were steady at 32.82 and 31.50 per dollar, respectively. The Chinese yuan fell 0.2% to 6.71 per dollar Tuesday.  (Divya Moolayattil)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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