More Stories

Informist, Tuesday, Sept. 1, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil

 

MUMBAI – The rupee rose to a two-month high Tuesday, on the back of strong support from the Reserve Bank of India's dollar sales and foreign fund inflows into the market. The Indian unit hit a high of 94.7925 per dollar intraday, but erased some gains as importers purchased dollars amid a rise in crude oil prices on fresh escalation in fighting in West Asia. 

 

"Today's appreciation came as a surprise. It (USD/INR) was not expected to go below 95 (per dollar), but there were good inflows of about $2 billion, along with RBI's intervention," a dealer at a public sector bank said.

 

The rupee settled at 94.9500 per dollar Tuesday, sharply up from Monday's close of 95.1625. The Indian unit moved in a 31 paise range during the day. Asian currencies traded mixed Tuesday, with the Indian unit the best performer and the South Korean won the worst.  

 

The rupee staged a surprise rally on Tuesday, opening stronger at 95.00 per dollar and catching traders off guard after widespread expectations of slight depreciation. Dealers said the central bank intervened in the non-deliverable forwards market before the spot opened, prompting a sharp rise at the open. 

 

The rupee strengthened by 43 paise in just three days, driven by active RBI intervention since Friday. Dealers said the robust inflows into foreign currency non-resident (bank) deposits have allowed the RBI to stabilise the rupee in August amid geopolitical uncertainty stemming from tensions in West Asia. Inflows through the FCNR(B) deposit scheme stood at $65.40 billion from Jun. 8 to Aug. 22. Market participants expect cumulative FCNR (B) inflows to exceed $90 billion.

 

Banks' dollar sales, likely on behalf of foreign portfolio investors, further supported the Indian unit, dealers said. FPIs invested $2.96 billion in domestic equities in August, marking the highest monthly inflow this calendar year. This also marked the second consecutive month of net buying, following a strong turnaround in July. 

 

Although the rupee rose to a two-month high of 94.7925 per dollar, it gradually erased some gains as banks bought dollars for importers. Importers viewed rising crude oil prices and relatively lower dollar-rupee levels as an opportunity to buy dollars for their requirements, dealers said. 

 

Dealers expect the dollar-rupee downside to be limited to 94.80 as pressure from higher crude oil prices continues to weigh on the Indian unit. Brent crude oil prices jumped to $92.25 per barrel at 1530 IST, from $90.49 Monday after media reports said two oil supertankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz were hit by projectiles. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump Tuesday pledged to respond to Iranian strikes on US bases in Jordan after both the warring countries exchanged strikes, further escalating the conflict. 

 

The dollar index also rose to 99.58, up from 99.41 Monday as investors increased their bets on a rate hike by the US Fed in September after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish comments last week, which weighed on Asian currencies, including the Indian unit. 

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.9500	95.0000	94.7925	95.1000	95.1625
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	281.16	273.56	282.20	272.56	272.88

 

FORWARDS

Dollar-rupee forward premiums rose across most tenures as banks bought forward dollars for importers, who wanted to make most of the relatively lower dollar-rupee level and feared a further rise in crude oil prices amid escalation in the war in West Asia, dealers said. The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium recovered from the fall in the previous two trading sessions and closed at an over five-week high of 281.16 paise Tuesday.

 

Some dealers speculated that the RBI sold forward dollars mildly for near-term maturities. The one-month exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium fell to 2.18% from Monday's close of 2.26%.

 

However, higher US Treasury yields put pressure on dollar-rupee forward premiums. The 10-year US Treasury yield was 4.78% at 1530 IST, against 4.77% Monday. The one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium at the same time was 2.96%, up from Monday's close of 2.87%. 

 

OUTLOOK 

Wednesday, the rupee is likely to track crude oil prices and developments in West Asia. Market participants will watch the dollar index after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech was more hawkish than the August FOMC meeting. Investors are also closely watching US economic data - the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index and jobs data - due later Tuesday.

 

"India's positive growth outlook is helping offset pressure from higher oil prices and keeping sentiment towards the rupee stable. Going ahead, crude, dollar movement and FII flows will remain key triggers," Jateen Trivedi, vice-president and research analyst, commodity and currency, LKP Securities, said in a note.

 

Dealers expect importer dollar demand to weigh on the currency. However, continued RBI dollar sales are likely to cushion the rupee. Dealers see strong technical support for the rupee at 95.00 per dollar, a break below which could drag it towards 95.15 per dollar. The rupee is expected to move in a range of 95.00-95.25 per dollar Wednesday.

---

India Rupee - World FX: Dlr index rises on rate hike bets, safe-haven demand

 

	AT 1400 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3532	1.3559	1.3529	1.3552
EUR/USD	1.1590	1.1625	1.1588	1.1619
NZD/USD	0.5898	0.5929	0.5898	0.5916
AUD/USD	0.7147	0.7181	0.7147	0.7166
USD/JPY	159.9600	160.0240	159.6370	159.7240
USD/CAD	1.3875	1.3876	1.3846	1.3853
EUR/JPY	185.3950	185.6940	185.4000	185.5840
CHF/USD	1.2336	1.2378	1.2332	1.2371
EUR/CHF	0.9394	0.9400	0.9390	0.9388

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index rose Tuesday while the yen hovered near the 160-per-dollar level as markets weighed growing expectations of interest-rate hikes by both the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. 

 

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh last week warned of concern about high inflation, which led investors to increase their bets on a rate hike in September. Traders price a 66% possibility of a rate increase on Sept. 16, CME FedWatch data showed. Additionally, a flare-up in hostilities in West Asia drove oil prices higher and boosted investors' appetite for the dollar as a safe haven. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, rose to 99.63 from 99.41 Monday.

 

Investors are also keeping a close watch on US economic data -- ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index and jobs data -- due later Tuesday.

 

The yen fell marginally to 159.99 per dollar after weakening beyond the key 160 level in the previous two sessions. The yen remains the focus of currency markets as investors assess whether a BoJ rate hike and possible further policy action will be enough to halt its slide toward the 160-per-dollar threshold.

 

The euro was down sharply by 0.3% at $1.1589 as investors await key European inflation data for August later Tuesday. The sterling fell slightly to $1.3532.  (Divya Moolayattil)

---

India Rupee: Premiums up as importers buy forward dollars actively

 

	AT 1330 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.9125	95.0000	94.7925	95.1000	95.1625
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	279.16	273.56	279.16	272.56	272.88

 

MUMBAI – Dollar-rupee forward premiums rose across most tenures as banks bought forward dollars for importers, who wanted to make most of the relatively lower dollar-rupee level and feared a further rise in crude oil prices amid escalation in the war in West Asia, dealers said. The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium recovered from the fall seen in the previous two trading sessions and hit a high of 276.11 paise Tuesday.

 

The Reserve Bank of India has been actively selling dollars in the spot market, boosting the rupee by 37 paise Tuesday. A few dealers speculated that the RBI sold forward dollars mildly for near-term maturities. The one-month exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium fell to 2.18% from Monday's close of 2.26%.

 

However, a rise in US Treasury yields put pressure on the dollar-rupee forward premiums. The 10-year US Treasury yield was 4.78% at 1330 IST, against 4.77% Monday. The one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium at the same time was 2.91%, higher than Monday's close of 2.87%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 279.16 paise, against 272.88 paise Tuesday.  (Divya Moolayattil)

---

India Rupee: Hits 2-month high on RBI's intervention; importers' demand weighs

 

	AT 1300 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.8625	95.0000	94.7925	95.1000	95.1625

 

MUMBAI – The rupee jumped to a two-month high against the dollar Tuesday as public sector banks sold dollars actively for the Reserve Bank of India, dealers said. The central bank also intervened in the non-deliverable forwards market before the spot opened, which led to a sharp rise at the open, they said. The rupee hit a high of 94.7925 per dollar Tuesday.

 

The rupee strengthened nearly 57 paise in just three days due to the RBI's active intervention in the market since Friday. Dealers said the robust inflows into foreign currency non-resident (Bank) deposits has allowed the RBI to stabilise rupee, keeping it in a tight range of around 10 paise in August. 

 

However, dealers expect the rupee's rise to be limited to 94.80 per dollar as banks purchase dollars for importers, noting lower dollar-rupee levels. "Upward (USD/INR) movement is expected as importers are coming even at a big figure (95 per dollar). I don't think 94.80 (a dollar) level can't be held for a long time," a dealer at a public sector bank said.  

 

A rise in Brent crude oil prices to above $91 per barrel also posed a risk to strengthening of the rupee. US President Donald Trump Tuesday pledged to respond to Iranian strikes on US bases in Jordan after both the warring countries exchanged strikes Monday, escalating the situation quickly. At 1230 IST, Brent crude oil for November delivery was $91.24 per barrel, up from $90.49 Monday and $89.31 Friday.     

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in the 94.80-95.00 range per dollar. Dealers see immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 94.80 per dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

---

India Rupee: Rises sharply on RBI's active dollar sales

 

	AT 0940 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.0200	95.0000	94.9600	95.1000	95.1625

 

MUMBAI – The rupee rose sharply against the dollar as public sector banks sold dollars, likely for the Reserve Bank of India, dealers said. The central bank also likely intervened through dollar sales in the offshore non-deliverable forwards market before the spot market opened, some dealers said. "There has been good dollar inflows, mostly from RBI. They have been active in the market since yesterday (Monday)," a dealer at a private sector bank said. "The rupee even hit 94.96 as soon as it opened, but market covered that levels."

 

However, the rupee erased some gains as banks bought dollars, noting relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, dealers said. The rupee traded at 95.05 at 0930 IST, after it hit a high of 94.9600 per dollar as soon as the spot market opened. 

 

The rupee will be under pressure on fear of further escalations in the West Asia war and a rise in crude oil prices. At 0930 IST, Brent crude oil for November delivery was $91.22 per barrel, up from $90.49 Monday. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has pledged to respond to Iranian strikes on US personnel in Jordan, saying, "We're going to hit them hard".

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in the 94.90-95.25 range per dollar. Dealers see immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 94.95 per dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

---

India Rupee - Asia FX: Mixed; South Korean won falls most, Taiwan dlr rises

 

MUMBAI – Asian currencies traded on a mixed note Tuesday, with the South Korean won falling the most, followed by the Thai baht. The won fell 0.2% to 1,369.78 per dollar after it advanced to its strongest level against the dollar in about 13 months Monday, driven by dollar sales by exporters. 

 

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish remarks that the US central bank may be preparing to increase interest rates unless inflation risks wane continued to weigh on the regional currencies. At 0830 IST, the dollar index was 99.49, up from 99.41 Monday.

 

The baht also fell to 33.18 a dollar from 33.12 Monday as crude oil prices remained higher amid escalations in the West Asia war, with the US signalling that it is ready to hit Iran hard. At 0830 IST, Brent crude for November delivery was $91.3 per barrel, down from $90.49 Monday.

 

Bucking the trend, the Taiwan dollar rose 0.3% to 31.60 per dollar Tuesday. The Chinese yuan and Philippine peso were broadly steady at 6.71 and 62.34 per dollar, respectively, Tuesday.  (Divya Moolayattil)

---

India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Sept 1

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Tuesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Public-sector bank	95.45	95.15
Private-sector bank	95.40	95.05
Private-sector bank	95.50	95.00
Private-sector bank	95.40	95.15
Private-sector bank	95.40	95.05
Brokerage firm	95.45	94.95
Brokerage firm	95.40	94.95

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

End

 

US$1 = INR 94.9500

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

 

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

 

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000 /+91 (11) 4220-1000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

 

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2026. All rights reserved.