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Informist, Tuesday, Aug. 25, 2026

 

By Kabir Sharma

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee ended lower against the dollar Thursday as month-end-related demand for dollars weighed on the local currency, dealers said. Maturity of month-end forwards also led to outflows of some dollars, further putting pressure on the rupee, they said. However, lower crude oil prices supported the Indian currency, limiting its fall, dealers said.

 

"There is the usual month-end demand payments related from importers and some outflows due to maturity of forwards," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "However most forwards were rolled over for September so that effect is muted," he said. 

 

The rupee settled at 95.5400 per dollar Thursday, down from 95.4125 Tuesday. Money markets were shut Wednesday for Id-e-Milad. The rupee moved in a range of 17 paise during the day. Most Asian units rose against the dollar on the back of a sustained decrease in crude oil prices.

 

A fall in crude oil prices over the previous three days has improved sentiment for the rupee. Brent crude oil prices have fallen over 6% in just three days on hopes of tensions between the US and Iran easing. Officials from Qatar and Iran are scheduled to meet Thursday to discuss ways to lower tensions between the warring parties.

 

Some banks also sold dollars, linked to foreign fund inflows following the rebalancing of the MSCI index, which limited the rupee's fall. Global index provider MSCI had added Adani Energy Solutions, Billionbrains Garage Ventures, Laurus Labs, and Lenskart Solutions to its global standard index as part of its August index review, removing Astral, Balkrishna Industries, and SBI Cards and Payments Services.

However, as is always the case with a dip in crude oil prices, importers rushed to stock up on the commodity, leading to significant demand for dollars, offsetting the positive effect of the fall in prices, dealers said. 

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.5400	95.4350	95.3900	95.5600	95.4125
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	280.50	278.00	281.50	277.00	277.70

 

FORWARDS
Dollar-rupee forward premiums rose sharply across tenors Thursday, driven by surplus dollar liquidity in the market, thanks to foreign currency non-resident (banks) deposits, which pushed up cash-tom rates.

 

The cash-tom market is trading at a high of 3.20%, leading to a sharper rise in near-term dollar-rupee forward premiums than in longer tenors. The one-month dollar-rupee forward premiums rose to a near one-month high of 2.93%, up from 2.57% Tuesday. The one-year dollar-rupee forward premiums also rose to a one-month high of 2.95% from 2.89% Tuesday, but the increase was much smaller than in shorter tenors.

 

The RBI's measures to boost foreign capital inflows have attracted $72.85 billion from Jun. 8 till Aug. 21. Nearly 90% of these inflows came from the FCNR(B) deposits scheme at $65.40 billion. Dealers expect the FCNR(B) inflows to cross $85 billion by Aug. 31.

 

However, the rise in premium was capped by a rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield to 4.68% at 1600 IST from 4.65% Wednesday. At 1530 IST, the one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.94%, up from 2.89% Tuesday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 280.50 paise, against 277.70 paise at close Tuesday.

 

OUTLOOK

Friday, the rupee will track crude oil prices and developments in the war in West Asia, with the situation expected to de-escalate. Qatar's Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani was scheduled to arrive in Tehran, where he will meet Iranian officials, according to media reports. The market will watch the outcome closely, as a positive response from Iran to a peace deal with the US could provide a favourable cue and improve risk appetite amid uncertainty over when the war in West Asia will end, dealers said.  

 

Dealers expect banks to buy dollars for importers given the sustained fall in crude oil prices, which will weigh on the currency. However, the RBI's continuous dollar sales will support the rupee as it comes under pressure. Market participants will track dollar inflows into FCNR(B) deposits, with the deadline of Aug. 31 for the scheme looming.

 

Dealers see strong technical support for the Indian currency at 95.80 per dollar, a break below which may drag it to 96.00. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 95.40-95.80 against the dollar Friday.

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India Rupee - World FX: Dollar index rises on strong US data, rate hike bets

 

	AT 1531 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3575	1.3598	1.3572	1.3595
EUR/USD	1.1641	1.1660	1.1641	1.1653
NZD/USD	0.5938	0.5955	0.5937	0.5943
AUD/USD	0.7176	0.7187	0.7175	0.7176
USD/JPY	159.4650	159.4900	159.1170	159.2930
USD/CAD	1.3884	1.3891	1.3874	1.3873
EUR/JPY	185.6350	185.7904	185.4660	185.6500
CHF/USD	1.2408	1.2426	1.2405	1.2416
EUR/CHF	0.9382	0.9395	0.9381	0.9383

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index extended gains for a second consecutive day on signs of economic strength in the US after July personal spending and income rose more than expected and Q2 personal consumption was revised higher. US personal spending increased 0.2% in July from the previous month, slowing from a 0.3% gain in June but exceeding expectations for a 0.1% increase. Higher bond yields have also widened the dollar's interest-rate differentials with other major economies, supporting the dollar. 

 

Stronger-than-expected US economic data reinforced expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike before year-end, further supporting the dollar. Prices measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index rose 3.7% in July year-on-year, the same rate as in June but slightly above the market consensus of 3.6%. Markets will closely watch Kevin Warsh's first speech as US Federal Reserve Chair at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium Friday.

 

At 1530 IST, the dollar index was at 99.21, up from 99.13 Wednesday.  

 

The euro fell 0.1% to $1.164 Thursday, but remained near its highest level since mid-May, as investors assessed falling oil prices and the outlook on European Central Bank interest rates.

 

The sterling pound was down 0.1% to $1.358, retreating from six-month highs reached last week, as a recent decline in Brent Crude prices eased inflation concerns and pushed expectations for the next Bank of England rate hike into 2027 from late 2026.

 

The Japanese yen was also down 0.2% as investors continued to assess the outlook for Bank of Japan monetary policy. Markets are currently pricing in around an 87% chance of a 25 basis point BOJ rate hike in September to 1.25%, up sharply from about 23?fore the central bank's July meeting.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Premiums up on surplus dlr liquidity; higher US ylds limit rise

 

	AT 1330 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.5425	95.4350	95.4000	95.5550	95.4125
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	281.50	278.00	281.50	277.00	277.70

 

MUMBAI – Dollar-rupee forward premiums rose sharply across all tenors Thursday, driven by surplus dollar liquidity in the market, thanks to foreign currency non-resident (bank) deposits, which pushed up cash-tom rates. "Yesterday (Wednesday) was a holiday, so inflows are coming in together, which is driving the cash/tom market high," a dealer at a private sector bank said. The foreign exchange market was shut Wednesday for Id-e-Milad. 

 

Cash-tom market is trading at a high of 3.20%, leading to a sharper rise in near-term dollar-rupee forward premiums than in longer tenors. The one-month dollar-rupee forward premiums rose to a near one-month high of 2.93%, up from 2.57% Tuesday. The one-year dollar-rupee forward premiums also rose to a one-month high of 2.95% from 2.89% Tuesday, but the increase was much smaller than in shorter tenors.

 

The RBI's measures to boost foreign capital inflows have attracted $72.85 billion from Jun. 8 till Aug. 21. Of this, nearly 90% of these inflows came from the FCNR (B) deposits scheme at $65.40 billion. Dealers expect the FCNR (B) inflows to cross $85 billion by Aug. 31. 

 

Dealers said banks also bought forward dollars on behalf of importers, who noted a sharp fall in crude oil prices and relatively lower dollar-rupee premium, which supported the forward premiums further. 

 

However, the rise in premium was capped due to a hike in the 10-year US Treasury yield to 4.66% at 1410 IST from 4.65% on Wednesday. At 1410 IST, the one-year exact period dollar rupee forward premium was 2.95%, down from 2.89% Tuesday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 281.50 paise, against 277.70 paise at close Tuesday. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Falls on heavy dollar demand; FX inflows limit the fall

 

	AT 1330 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.5300	95.4350	95.4000	95.5350	95.4125

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell against the dollar Thursday as banks actively bought greenback, partly related to the expiry of August dollar-rupee forwards. "There is a lot of action happening today, it is largely month-end-related demand. There is some expiry-related purchases, but most of them will be rolled over to September", a dealer at a private sector bank said. The expiry of August dollar-rupee futures can lead to position adjustments and related buying or selling in the spot market as traders settle or roll over their positions.

 

Banks also purchased dollars on behalf of importers to meet their month-end payment obligations, which weighed on the Indian currency, dealers said. 

 

However, banks also sold dollars, linked to foreign fund inflows following the rebalancing of the MSCI index, which limited the fall of the rupee. Global index provider MSCI had added Adani Energy Solutions, Billionbrains Garage Ventures, Laurus Labs, and Lenskart Solutions to its global standard index as part of its August index review, removing Astral, Balkrishna Industries, and SBI Cards and Payments Services. 

 

The rupee moved in a thin band of around 10 paise during the day. A sharp fall in crude oil prices over the previous three sessions has improved sentiment for the rupee. Brent crude oil prices have fallen over 6% in just three days on signs of easing tensions between the US and Iran. Officials from Qatar and Iran are scheduled to meet Thursday to discuss ways to de-escalate tensions between warring parties. At 1332 IST, Brent crude for October futures were $86.75 per barrel, down from $87.84 Wednesday. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in the range of 95.35-95.55 per dollar. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 95.55 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Aug 27

 

MUMBAI – At 1118 IST, the rupee was at 95.4675 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 95.4350 a dollar, against the previous close of 95.4125. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and a brokerage:

 

Participant	S2	S1	R1	R2
Public-sector bank	95.60	95.50	95.35	95.25
Private-sector bank	95.75	95.55	95.35	95.25
Private-sector bank	95.70	95.60	95.30	95.20
Foreign bank	95.65	95.55	95.35	95.25
Brokerage firm	95.60	95.50	95.30	95.20

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Steady as crude remains down; importers' demand may weigh

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.4100	95.4350	95.4075	95.4700	95.4125

 

MUMBAI – The rupee was broadly steady against the dollar as crude oil prices remained below $90 per barrel for three straight days, amid signs of easing tension between the US and Iran, dealers said. 

 

"The geopolitical side is slightly positive now and crude is gradually falling. Last time, when crude was at these levels, the rupee traded near 95.25 range, so there are chances that the rupee may appreciate to 95.25 today (Thursday)," a dealer at a public sector bank said. Dealers also expect foreign fund inflows, linked to the rebalancing of MSCI index to support the rupee during the day. 

 

At 0900 IST, Brent crude oil for October delivery was $87.48 per barrel, down from $87.84 Wednesday. The fall in crude oil prices sustained Thursday on hope that high-stake talks between Qatar and Iran, scheduled for Thursday, may lead to a diplomatic resolution to the war.

However, banks' active dollar purchases for importers to meet their month-end payment obligation will put pressure on the Indian unit, they said. The dollar index recovery to over 99 will also weigh on the rupee. At 0900 IST, the dollar index was 99.15, up from 99.13 Wednesday. Dealers expect the Reserve Bank of India to intervene and sell dollars if the rupee comes under pressure. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in the range of 95.25-95.50 per dollar. Dealers see immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 95.30 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Aug 27

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Thursday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll: 

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Private-sector bank	95.60	95.30
Private-sector bank	95.65	95.35
Private-sector bank	95.58	95.30
Private-sector bank	95.55	95.35
Foreign bank	95.65	95.35
Brokerage firm	95.50	95.30

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Mixed; Taiwan dlr, South Korean won rise most

 

MUMBAI – Asian currencies moved on a mixed note in early trade Thursday. The Taiwan dollar rose the most among the regional peers, followed by the South Korean won. The Taiwan dollar hit a two-month high of 31.71 per dollar Thursday.
 

The South Korean won rose 0.2% to 1,381.98 per dollar after the Bank of Korea raised its 2026 growth forecast to 3.3% from 2.6%, citing stronger-than-expected semiconductor exports and a robust economic recovery. The central bank also raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3%, marking a second consecutive hike amid persistent inflationary pressures.

 

The Philippine peso rose 0.2% to 61.71 per dollar and the Thai baht rose 0.1% to 32.82 per dollar Thursday. The Malaysian ringgit and Chinese yuan were broadly steady against the dollar. 

 

The Asian currencies gained support from a fall in crude oil prices on signs of efforts to end the war between the US and Iran. Officials from Qatar and Iran are scheduled to meet Thursday to discuss diplomatic strategies for de-escalating tensions between regional warring parties. These high-stakes talks sparked market optimism that the critical Strait of Hormuz might reopen, which caused Brent crude oil prices to extend their decline for a fourth consecutive day. At 0830 IST, Brent crude for October futures were $87.04 per barrel, down from $87.84 Wednesday.  

 

The dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, held at 99.14, near its highest level over the past week, which weighed on the Asian currencies. (Divya Moolayattil)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury and Rajeev Pai

 

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