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Informist, Tuesday, Aug. 25, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil

 

MUMBAI - The rupee rose against the dollar Tuesday as Brent crude oil prices fell below $90 per barrel after a Pakistani official said significant progress had been made during talks with Iran's president to restore a previous memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran, dealers said. The rupee also found support from the Reserve Bank of India's mild intervention, they said. However, banks' dollar purchases for importers weighed on the rupee during the day.

 

"For a long time, there was no sign of a peace deal between the two warring countries, so the market reacted as soon as the news on the US and Iran peace deal came," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. The rupee settled at 95.4125 per dollar Tuesday, up 0.3% from Monday's close.

 

The rupee moved in a wide range of 33 paise during the day. Most Asian units were broadly steady against the dollar. Bucking the trend, the Indian currency rose sharply and emerged as the best performer among regional currencies.

 

For most part of the day, however, the rupee moved in a thin band of 5 paise as public-sector banks sold dollars for the Reserve Bank of India, which offset banks' persistent dollar purchases for importers. Earlier in the day, the RBI likely intervened in the non-deliverable forward market before the spot market opened, dealers said.

 

The Indian currency was also weighed down as the US unveiled new sanctions to cut off Iran's economic lifeline and force an end to the war, telling countries they would need to sever their business ties with Tehran or risk being cut out of the dollar-based financial system. Importers were buying on every dollar-rupee dip, which weighed on the Indian currency, they said.

 

However, after reports about the progress in peace talks between the US and Iran, the Indian currency jumped to a high of 95.4100 per dollar Tuesday. A sharp fall in crude oil prices supported the rupee. At 1530 IST, Brent crude for October delivery was at $89.33 per barrel, down from $92.17 per barrel Monday. Dealers said market sentiment changed after news of progress in peace talks between the US and Iran.

 

The rupee also gained support from the inflows related to rebalancing of the MSCI index. "Some inflows have come. Since tomorrow is a bank holiday, so conversion to rupee needed to be done before money flows to the stock market," the dealer said at the private-sector bank said.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.4125	95.7250	95.4000	95.7375	95.7450
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	277.70	280.68	282.72	277.18	279.60

 

FORWARDS

Dollar-rupee forward premiums erased gains and eased across most tenures, tracking appreciation in the spot market as crude oil fell after a Pakistani official said significant progress had been made during talks with Iran's president to restore a previous memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran. The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium had risen to a one-month high of 2.94% or 282.71 paise intraday.

 

Banks bought forward dollars for importers, which kept the forward premiums steady. Some dealers said banks also bought forward dollars for the RBI, likely in three- to five-year tenors, which also supported forward premiums. "The RBI is buying in forwards, but not in a big way. Smells like these purchases are in 3- to 5-year tenures," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. 

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium was at 2.89%, slightly down from 2.92% Monday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 277.70 paise, also down slightly from 279.60 paise at close Monday.

 

OUTLOOK

Thursday, the rupee will track crude oil prices and developments in the war in West Asia, with Trump ready to impose economic sanctions on Iran. Indian money markets are closed Wednesday for Id-e-Milad.

 

Dealers expect banks to buy dollars for importers, which will weigh on the currency. However, the RBI's continuous dollar sales will support the rupee as it comes under pressure. Market participants will track dollar inflows into FCNR(B) deposits, with the deadline of Aug. 31 for the scheme looming.  

 

Dealers see strong technical support for the Indian currency at 95.80 per dollar, a break below which may drag it to 96.00. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 95.40-95.80 against the dollar Thursday.

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India Rupee - World FX: Dollar steady on fall in crude, peace talks optimism

 

	AT 1450 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3646	1.3650	1.3622	1.3632
EUR/USD	1.1671	1.1674	1.1651	1.1664
NZD/USD	0.5959	0.5968	0.5947	0.5957
AUD/USD	0.7153	0.7159	0.7138	0.7146
USD/JPY	159.2780	159.4910	159.0620	159.0770
USD/CAD	1.3855	1.3867	1.3841	1.3843
EUR/JPY	185.8940	185.9767	185.5300	185.4860
CHF/USD	1.2464	1.2469	1.2434	1.2457
EUR/CHF	0.9363	0.9376	0.9359	0.9359

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index was steady as investors' risk appetite rose on optimism around peace talks between the US and Iran. At 1440 IST, the index was at 98.96 from 98.98 Monday. The dollar index was trading at 99 for most of the day as investors assessed expanded US sanctions on Iran and efforts by the US Treasury to ease pressure on long-term government bond yields.
 

Crude oil prices fell sharply below $90 per barrel after Pakistani offical said that significant progress has been made during talks with Iran's president to restore a previous memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran. At 1440 IST, Brent crude oil for October delivery was $89.78 per barrel, down from $92.17 Monday. 

 

The euro rose 0.1% to $1.1670, hovering near a three-month high reached last week, while sterling gained 0.1% to $1.3646, approaching a six-month-high.

 

The Canadian dollar was little changed at 1.3855 per dollar after falling 0.6% in the previous session, following Washington's threat to raise tariffs on Canadian goods as trade talks broke down.

The Japanese yen gave up most of the gains triggered by Japanese authorities' intervention, but remained well above its multi-decade low of around 164. The yen edged up to 159.29 per dollar Tuesday. 

 

The Australian dollar gained 0.1% as the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate-setting board considered hiking interest rates to pre-emptively ward off a rise in inflation if the West Asia conflict drags on or the AI boom is larger than anticipated, minutes from the August meeting showed on Tuesday.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Premiums retreat as crude oil falls on peace talks optimism

 

	AT 1430 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.54150	95.7250	95.5150	95.7375	95.7450
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	280.20	280.68	282.72	280.20	279.60

 

MUMBAI – Dollar-rupee forward premiums erased gains across most tenures, tracking appreciation in the spot market as crude oil fell after a Pakistani official said significant progress has been made during talks with Iran's president to restore a previous memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran. The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium had risen to a one-month high of 2.94% or 282.71 paise intraday.

 

Banks bought forward dollars for importers, which kept the forward premiums steady. Some dealers said banks bought forward dollars for the Reserve Bank of India, likely in three- to five-year tenors, which also supported forward premiums. "The RBI is buying in forwards, but not in a big way. Smells like these purchases are in 3- to 5-year tenures," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. 

 

The rupee rose nearly 20 paise to 95.5300 per dollar intraday after crude oil fell on signs of progress in peace talks between the US and Iran. Dealers said the rupee also gained support from inflows related to MSCI rebalancing, the RBI's intervention, and fall in crude oil prices despite the continuing standoff between the US and Iran. "Some inflows have come. Since tomorrow is bank holiday, so conversion to rupee needed to be done before money flows to stock market," the dealer said.

 

At 1430 IST, the one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium was at 2.92%, flat from Monday. But, on an absolute basis, the premium was 280.20 paise, up slightly from 279.60 paise at close Monday.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Inches up as RBI intervention offsets importers' dollar demand

 

	AT 1230 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.6800	95.7250	95.6800	95.7375	95.7450

 

MUMBAI – The rupee inched up and was range-bound, trading in a tight range of 5 paise, as public sector banks sold dollars for the Reserve Bank of India, which offset the banks' persistent dollar purchases for importers, dealers said. This has been the case for two weeks, they said.

The central bank's intervention has completely shut any room for speculators in the market, they said. Earlier in the day, the central bank also likely intervened through dollar sales in the offshore non-deliverable forwards market before the spot market opened, according to few dealers. 

 

The RBI's firepower to intervene in the market has risen with robust inflows into foreign currency non-resident (bank) deposits, they said. The RBI's measures to boost foreign capital inflows have attracted $72.85 billion from Jun. 8 till Friday, of which nearly 90% of inflows came from FCNR(B) deposits of $65.40 billion.

 

Banks actively bought dollars for importers as they wanted to meet their month-end payment obligations, which put pressure on the Indian currency, dealers said. "All the deals are genuine ones, so the volume will not be as high as before. PSUs' (public sector banks) are on bid now for importers," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

Crude oil prices fell further Tuesday after settling down more than 2% Monday, with investors brushing off the impact of the latest US sanctions against Iran. This drop in crude oil prices sustained market sentiment and kept the rupee steady. Brent crude oil for October delivery was at $91.44 per barrel, down from $92.17 Monday. 

 

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent late Monday unveiled new sanctions to cut off Iran's economic lifeline and force an end to the war, telling countries they would need to sever their business ties with Tehran or risk being cut out of the dollar-based financial system.

 

The dollar index reclaimed the 99 level for the first time since last Wednesday's plunge, driven by risk-off demand tied to the escalation of sanctions on Iran, which weighed on the rupee. For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in the range of 95.60-95.85 per dollar. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 95.80 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Steady as crude stays at $92/bbl despite US-Iran standoff

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.7150	95.7250	95.7125	95.7375	95.7450

 

MUMBAI – The rupee was broadly steady against the dollar Tuesday as crude oil prices remanied firm at $92 per barrel even after US imposed sanctions on Iran and its allies, which is likely to further delay diplomatic resolution of the war. At 0900 IST, Brent crude oil for October delivery was $92.46 per barrel, against $92.17 Monday. 

 

"It is crude that matters now, dollar index doesn't matter. If crude moves, the rupee will also move. Right now, crude has strong support at current levels," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Monday announced plans to isolate Iran by targeting countries through sanctions that continue doing business with the Islamic Republic, while President Donald Trump said those nations would be given a specific timeline to sever ties with Tehran or face unilateral US penalties.    

 

Few dealers said banks are likely to sell dollars, linked to foreign fund inflows of around $750 million, which will support the rupee. Foreign portfolio investors became net buyers in domestic equities, as they bought around INR 11.82 billion shares Monday. 

 

Dealers expect importers to buy dollars actively for month-end payments as the day progresses, which will weigh on the rupee. For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in the range of 95.60-95.85 per dollar. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 95.80 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Aug 25

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Tuesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll: 

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Private-sector bank	95.80	95.60
Private-sector bank	95.85	95.60
Private-sector bank	95.80	95.60
Private-sector bank	95.85	95.65
Foreign bank	95.80	95.60
Brokerage firm	95.89	95.62

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most fall as dollar firms up on safe-haven demand

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies fell against the dollar in early trade as the dollar index rose overnight and stayed near 99 on safe-haven demand. At 0830 IST, the dollar index was 99.00, up from 98.98 Monday. 

 

Market remained cautious after the US imposed sanctions on Iran and its allies. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Monday announced plans to isolate Iran by targeting countries through sanctions that continue doing business with the Islamic Republic, while President Donald Trump said those nations would be given a specific timeline to sever ties with Tehran or face unilateral US penalties.    

 

The Japanese yen fell slightly to 159.31 per dollar, down from 159.07 Monday as the greenback gained safe-haven demand. The Bank of Japan will probably raise its benchmark interest rate next month, validating widespread market speculation, and follow up with another increase as early as January, according to former board member Seiji Adachi. Traders are betting on an 80% probability of a hike with BoJ's next policy decision scheduled for Sept. 18.

 

The South Korean won rose marginally, extending gains to its strongest level since September 2025, as strong domestic fundamentals supported the currency. South Korea's exports jumped 56% year-on-year in the first 20 days of August, while semiconductor shipments nearly tripled to $26 billion, generating a $14 billion trade surplus and supporting exporters' dollar-selling.

 

The Philippine peso and Thai baht were broadly steady at 61.69 and 32.72 per dollar, respectively. The Taiwan dollar fell marginally to 31.86 per dollar. The Singapore dollar was broadly steady as inflation missed estimates even as it accelerated to a near two-year high in July, as higher energy prices lifted electricity prices. The country reported that consumer prices in July rose 2.2% year on year, compared with the 2.3% expected by economists polled by Reuters, and the 1.9% rise seen in June.

 

The Chinese yuan also fell 0.2% to 6.72 per dollar Tuesday. Media reports that the US was considering a 7.5% tariff on Chinese goods may add some uncertainty to yuan Tuesday.  (Divya Moolayattil) 

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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