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Informist, Thursday, Aug. 20, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil

 

MUMBAI – The rupee erased most of its gains against the dollar as banks actively bought dollars for importers amid a sharp rise in crude oil prices, dealers said. However, the Reserve Bank of India's dollar sales made sure the rupee did not fall. The Indian unit also received strong support from a weaker dollar and softer US yields, they said. 

 

"Crude oil prices rose suddenly over 93 ($/barrel) during the last leg of the trade. The RBI was seen, but importers came in actively at that time," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

After hitting a high of 95.5625 per dollar, the rupee settled at 95.7050 per dollar Thursday, broadly steady from the previous close of 95.7525. The rupee traded in a range of 14 paise during the day. Asian currencies rose 0.1-0.5% against the dollar Thursday, with the Indonesian rupiah being the best performer. Bucking the trend, the South Korean won fell 0.5% against the dollar. 

 

The rupee snapped a three-day losing streak and started the day on a positive note as the dollar index fell overnight after the US Treasury said it would more than double its buybacks of 10- to 30-year debt to at least $4 billion per operation over the next two months. The move came just after the 30-year yield hit a near 19-year high and as US debt neared $40 trillion this week.

 

However, Brent crude rose for a fifth straight session to near $94 per barrel as US-Iran talks remained stalled and traffic in the Strait of Hormuz stayed well below pre-war levels, limiting gains in the rupee. US President Donald Trump said the US would launch the "most crushing economic operation ever" on Iran, and also threatened penalties on nations helping Tehran, dampening hopes of a diplomatic resolution to the war. At 1530 IST, Brent crude oil for October delivery was at $93.65 per barrel, up from $91.62 Wednesday. 

 

As the day progressed, importers bought dollars actively, noting relatively lower dollar-rupee levels and rising crude oil prices, which weighed on the currency, dealers said. However, public sector banks bought dollars, likely for the RBI, preventing the rupee from falling. The central bank sold dollars at around 95.65 and 95.70 per dollar, offsetting dollar demand from importers. "There was intervention at multiple levels. Looking at the inflows in FCNR (B) (foreign currency non-resident [bank]) deposits now, it is quite possible that RBI may come in aggressively soon," a dealer at another private sector bank said. 

 

Meanwhile, market participants viewed minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee's August meeting as more hawkish than RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra's statement. Dollar bids increased as traders anticipated that the MPC minutes signalling potential rate hikes to combat inflation would support the rupee, dealers said. "Yesterday, post-market hours, the rupee was seen at the 95.50 level because of the hawkish tone in the MPC minutes," the dealer said. 

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.7050	95.5625	95.5625	95.7150	95.7525
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	276.79	278.08	278.54	274.67	272.30

 

 

FORWARDS 

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium rose for the fifth straight day on Thursday to a two-week high as US Treasury yields fell overnight. On Wednesday, long-term US yields fell sharply after the US Treasury announced it would double its buyback operations of 10- to 30-year bonds to $4 billion per operation between September and November. At 1530 IST, the US Treasury yield was at 4.67%, down from 4.69% Wednesday.

 

Dollar-rupee forward premiums rose further as banks bought forward dollars for oil marketing companies and other importers, who feared a further surge in crude oil prices, dealers said. At 1530 IST, the one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.89%, up from 2.83% Wednesday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 276.79 paise, up from 272.30 paise at Wednesday close.  

 

OUTLOOK

Friday, the rupee will track crude oil prices and developments in the war in West Asia, with Trump ready to impose economic sanctions on Iran. The Indian unit will also track the dollar index as Federal Reserve officials indicated at their last meeting that they would need to raise interest rates soon if inflation remains high. 

 

Dealers expect banks to buy dollars for importers, which will weigh on the currency. However, the RBI's continuous dollar sales support the rupee as it comes under pressure. 

 

Dealers see strong technical support for the Indian currency at 95.75 per dollar, a break below which may drag it to 95.85. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 95.65-95.80 against the dollar Friday.

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India Rupee - World FX: Dollar index at 3-month low; euro, Japanese yen up

 

	AT 1415 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3633	1.3636	1.3595	1.3605
EUR/USD	1.1697	1.1699	1.1670	1.1675
NZD/USD	0.5952	0.5957	0.5929	0.5927
AUD/USD	0.7125	0.7129	0.7104	0.7122
USD/JPY	158.4890	158.7290	158.0300	158.1230
USD/CAD	1.3772	1.3812	1.3771	1.3805
EUR/JPY	185.3980	185.4160	184.5760	184.6300
CHF/USD	1.2532	1.2549	1.2493	1.2529
EUR/CHF	0.9333	0.9347	0.9308	0.9312

 

MUMBAI – The dollar extended its decline on Thursday and fell to a three-month low after the US Treasury Department said it would double the size of buybacks of long-dated US government debt, which had risen to their highest since 2007. The 30-year Treasury yield rose to a 19-year high of 5.337?rlier this week, prompting the US Treasury to unveil plans on Wednesday to double liquidity support buyback operations

 

At 1415 IST, the dollar index, which ‌measures the US currency against six major currencies, was at 98.70, the lowest level in three months.

 

The euro rose 0.7% to $1.1678, its highest level since May 14. The dollar's weakness provided some relief to the Japanese yen, which pulled away from the key psychological level of 160 and traded at 158.42 per dollar. Japan's exports in July accelerated for a fifth straight month at 23.2%, the fastest growth since October 2022. Economists polled by Reuters had estimated the growth at 19.9%.

 

The pound sterling was at $1.3613, while the Swiss franc rose 1.3% to 0.799 per dollar, near a two-month-high. The Australian dollar was broadly steady despite the weaker dollar as employment in Australia dropped by 15,800 to 14.81 million in July, the first monthly decline since April. The employment figure missed market expectations of a 15,000 gain.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee:1-yr premium at 2-wk high as US ylds fall; importers buy fwd dlrs

 

	AT 1330 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.6850	95.5625	95.5625	95.6625	95.7525
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	277.50	278.08	278.54	274.67	272.30

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium rose for the fifth consecutive day on Thursday to an over two-week high as US Treasury yields fell overnight. On Wednesday, long-term US yields fell sharply after the US Treasury announced it would double the size of its buyback operations of 10- to 30-year bonds to $4 billion per operation between September and November. 

 

The move was intended to provide "liquidity support" for bonds maturing in 10 to 30 years and keep long-term bonds in check, as these rose to a 19-year high this week. At 1330 IST, the US Treasury yield was at 4.65%, down from 4.69% Wednesday.

 

Dollar-rupee forward premiums rose further as banks bought forward dollars for oil marketing companies and other importers, who feared further surge in crude oil prices, dealers said. In the spot market, the rupee erased some gains due to importers' active bidding during the day. 

 

At 1330 IST, the one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.90%, up from 2.83% Wednesday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 277.50 paise, higher than 272.30 paise at Wednesday close.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Rises as dollar weakens, RBI intervenes; importers' buys weigh

 

	AT 1240 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.6550	95.5625	95.5625	95.6625	95.7525

 

MUMBAI – The rupee rose against the greenback Thursday as the dollar index dropped sharply, as well as due to the Reserve Bank of India's mild intervention and the Monetary Policy Committee's hawkish tone in the minutes of its August meeting, dealers said. 

 

The dollar index fell overnight after the US Treasury said it would more than double its buybacks of 10- to 30-year debt to at least $4 billion per operation from $2 billion, over the next two months. The move came just after the 30-year yield hit a near 20-year high and as US debt neared $40 trillion this week. At 1231 IST, the index was at 98.78, down from Wednesday's high of 99.69. Most Asian currencies rose Thursday, tracking weakness in the dollar. 

 

Market participant viewed minutes of the MPC's last meeting as more hawkish or restrictive than RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra's policy statement. Dollar bids increased as traders anticipated that the MPC minutes signalling potential rate hikes to combat inflation would support the rupee. "There are bids coming in because the market is now expecting a hike by the end of this (calendar) year," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

Banks also bought dollars for importers actively, noting a surge in crude oil prices, which weighed on the Indian unit. However, the RBI supplied dollars in the market, keeping the rupee in a tight range and curbing volatility. The central bank sold dollars at around 95.64 per dollar, which offset the dollar demand from importers. "There is good demand in the market and on the supply side there is the RBI, who is not allowing the rupee to move much," the dealer said. 

 

Brent crude rose for a fifth straight session to near $92 as US-Iran talks remained stalled and traffic in the Strait of Hormuz stayed well below pre-war levels, which limited gains of the rupee. US President Donald Trump said the US would launch the "most crushing economic operation against Iran, and also threatened penalties on nations helping Tehran, which dampened hopes of a diplomatic resolution to the war. At 1240 IST, Brent crude oil for October delivery was at $95.35 per barrel, up from $91.62 Wednesday. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in the range of 95.55-95.75 a dollar. Dealers see immediate technical reistance for the rupee at 95.55 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Aug 20

 

MUMBAI – At 1127 IST, the rupee was at 95.6400 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 95.5625 a dollar, against the previous close of 95.7525. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and a brokerage:

 

Participant	S2	S1	R1	R2
Public-sector bank	95.80	95.75	95.55	95.45
Private-sector bank	95.75	95.70	95.55	95.50
Private-sector bank	95.78	95.70	95.55	95.45
Brokerage firm	95.88	95.78	95.48	95.38
Brokerage firm	95.80	95.70	95.50	95.40

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Rise on dollar index weakness; higher crude weighs

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.6350	95.5625	95.5625	95.6625	95.7525

 

MUMBAI – The rupee strengthened against the dollar Thursday as the dollar index fell overnight after the US Treasury Department announced Wednesday that it would more than double its government debt buybacks as US debt nears $40 trillion. The dollar index fell to a nearly three-month low of 98.80, from Wednesday's high of 99.69. 

 

The rupee rose nearly 20 paise at open Thursday. However, crude oil prices crossed $92 per barrel, which weighed on the Indian currency. US President Donald Trump said Thursday he would launch the "most crushing economic operation ever taken against any country" on Iran as talks between both countries to end the war and reopen the strait remain stalled. 

 

Some dealers speculated that public sector banks sold dollars, likely to the Reserve Bank of India, to protect the 95.65 level. "They are not aggressive, just a mild (dollar) sale to protect the 95.65-95.70 range," a dealer at a private sector bank said.   

 

Lack of dollar demand from importers is likely to keep the rupee range-bound at 95.60-95.70 per dollar, dealers said. "They will wait for better levels. I don't think they will jump in because the rupee is 10-15 paise higher," a dealer at a public sector bank said.

For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in the range of 95.55-95.75 per dollar. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 95.75 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Aug 20

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Thursday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll: 

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Private-sector bank	95.60	95.30
Private-sector bank	95.65	95.35
Private-sector bank	95.75	95.35
Brokerage firm	95.75	95.38
Brokerage firm	95.70	95.30

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most up as dlr index drops; Malaysian ringgit up

 

MUMBAI – Asian currencies rose in early trade as the greenback fell sharply after the US Treasury announced it would double the size of long-term US government debt buybacks following the rapid surge in US Treasury yields. Repurchases of $2 billion will now be increased to "at least" $4 billion, the US Treasury said. The move is intended to provide "liquidity support" for bonds maturing in 10 to 30 years as total US debt nears $40 trillion.

 

The dollar index fell to a nearly three-month low of 98.76 after the news emerged, from Wednesday's high of 99.69. However, the index inched higher in early trade Thursday after crude oil prices rose amid US President Donald Trump's warnings of economic sanctions against Iran and its allies. At 0830 IST, Brent crude oil for October delivery was $92.05 per barrel, up from $91.62 Wednesday. 

 

The Malaysian ringgit rose the most among the Asian peers Thursday, followed by the Philippine peso. The ringgit rose 0.5% Thursday as concerns over the rising US government debt weighed on the greenback, dimming expectations of a US interest rate hike.

 

The Philippine peso rose 0.4% to 61.56 per dollar after it hit a record intraday low on Wednesday. The Thai baht also rose slightly to 32.84 per dollar Thursday. The Chinese yuan and Taiwan dollar were broadly steady against the dollar Thursday.

 

Bucking the trend, the South Korean won fell 0.5% against the dollar Thursday. (Divya Moolayattil)

  

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury and Saji George Titus

 

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