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Informist, Wednesday, Aug. 19, 2026

By Divya Moolayattil

MUMBAI – The rupee is expected to fall slightly against the dollar and remain range bound Wednesday, as seen this week, dealers said. The Indian unit is likely to be under pressure due to higher US Treasury yields and crude oil prices.

The rupee is likely to open at 95.65-95.72 a dollar on Wednesday, after settling at 95.6800 on Tuesday. The rupee is likely to move in the range of 95.60-95.80 during the day, a break below which may drag the rupee to 95.90. Dealers expect the Reserve Bank of India to continue to keep the rupee in tight range through dollar sales, despite rising tensions in West Asia and higher crude oil prices. 

"At this point, RBI's support is very evident. These levels are holding because of the interventions, or else rupee would have crossed 96 per dollar earlier," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

Brent crude oil strengthened above $91 per barrel on Wednesday, extending gains for a fourth consecutive session as the US and Iran made zero progress of reaching an agreement to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, keeping supply concerns elevated. US President Donald Trump said that no talks were taking place or scheduled with Iran, while maintaining that the US naval blockade remained in full force and mines in the Strait of Hormuz have been cleared. Despite his repeated claims, commercial vessel traffic through the Strait remains depressed. At 0747 IST, Brent crude oil for October delivery was $91.92 per barrel, slightly up from $91.02 Tuesday. 

The 10-year Treasury yield eased some gains but remained elevated at 4.70%, the highest level since early 2025, and the 30-year yield held near a 19-year high, which will further weigh on the Indian unit. 

Banks may purchase dollars for importers, fearing a further rise in crude oil prices, which will weigh on the Indian currency. However, the volume of the dollar bidding may remain subdued as they wait for more clarity on the West Asia war, dealers said.

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium is expected to rise as banks may buy dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, dealers said.

On an annualised basis, the premium on the one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward contract is seen at 2.84-2.90% Wednesday. On Tuesday, it settled at 2.83%. On an absolute basis, the premium ended at 270.50 paise.

End

US$1 = INR 95.6800

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

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