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Informist, Monday, Aug. 17, 2026

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell to an over two-week low against the dollar as market sentiment remained cautious after investors pared expectations of dollar inflows after the Reserve Bank of India announced premature closure, by Aug. 31, of the concessional swap facility for foreign currency non-resident (banks) deposits. Importers bought dollars actively, putting further pressure on the Indian currency.

 

However, the RBI's persistent dollar sales limited the rupee's fall and kept it range-bound during the day. The fall in the dollar index supported the Indian currency.

 

"The RBI closed the FCNR(B) deposits window early. Their decisions keep changing, and the market gets impacted," a dealer at a foreign bank said. "The market had estimated $100 billion inflows earlier, now that is cut short to around $80 billion." 

 

The rupee settled at 95.6025 per dollar Monday, down from Friday's close of 95.4250 per dollar. The currency moved in a tight range of 14 paise. Most Asian currencies rose 0.1-0.6% against the dollar Monday, with the Taiwanese dollar being the best performer.

 

The rupee opened slightly lower but avoided a sharp depreciation as public-sector banks sold dollars for the RBI after the currency came under pressure. The RBI intervened at multiple levels, keeping the rupee above 95.62 a dollar, dealers said. The central bank has been supporting the rupee and keeping it within a range since last week.

 

Dealers said the RBI has been using the dollar inflows received through the FCNR(B) swap window. India's foreign-exchange reserves have surged by over $15 billion since the week ended Jul. 31, reaching $707 billion by Aug. 7. The RBI's measures to boost foreign capital inflows attracted a total of $56.85 billion from Jun. 8 till Thursday. Of this, inflows through FCNR(B) deposits amounted to $52.30 billion. Dealers expect the rupee to stay in the range of 95.00-95.70 till the closure of the FCNR(B) deposit window.

The rupee fell sharply as importers bought dollars actively, fearing depreciation of the Indian currency, as investors pared expectations of dollar inflows after the Reserve Bank of India said it will end the concessional swap facility for foreign currency non-resident (banks) deposits on Aug. 31.

 

Brent crude oil price remained near $90 per barrel, which weighed on the Indian currency. At 1530 IST, Brent crude for October delivery was at $89.35 per barrel, against $88.52 Friday. The Trump administration Friday vowed to impose stronger economic sanctions on Iran, with the aim of forcing Tehran to surrender.

 

The dollar index fell to an over 10-week high, which supported the rupee. The index was down on weaker-than-expected US economic data, after which investors pared expectations of a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve at its September policy meeting. The dollar index was at 99.45 at 1530 IST, down from 99.62 Friday.

 

Foreign portfolio investors also gave the rupee some relief as they turned net buyers in domestic equities for the second consecutive month in August. So far, they have bought $1.60 billion worth of shares in August.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.6025	95.4775	95.4775	95.6225	95.4250
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	266.33	269.00	269.00	265.00	259.17

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium snapped a three-day fall and neared a three-week high as banks bought forward dollars on behalf of importers who feared depreciation of the rupee after the RBI's announcement of premature closure of the swap facility for FCNR(B) deposits led to investors paring expectations of dollar inflows. Surplus rupee liquidity in the market due to inflows into the FCNR(B) scheme capped the rise of forward premiums.

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.79%, up sharply from Friday's close of 2.72%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 266.33 paise, against 259.17 paise Friday.

 

OUTLOOK

Tuesday, the rupee will continue to track crude oil prices amid developments in the war between the US and Iran. Dealers expect the RBI to continue with its dollar sales, keeping the Indian currency steady in the wake of rising uncertainty in West Asia.

 

Market participants will keep a close eye on the dollar index as investors continue to scale back their expectations of a rate hike at the Fed's next meeting in September. "The rupee remains sensitive to crude and dollar movements while market participants will now focus on the FOMC (US Federal Open Market Committee) meeting minutes for further cues on the US interest-rate outlook and dollar direction," Jateen Trivedi, vice-president and research analyst, commodity and currency, LKP Securities, said in a note. 

 

Dealers see strong technical support for the Indian currency at 95.65 per dollar, a break below which may drag the rupee to 95.80. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 95.40–95.80 against the dollar Tuesday.

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India Rupee - World FX: Dollar index at over 10-week low on weak US data

 

	AT 1440 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3556	1.3571	1.3531	1.3530
EUR/USD	1.1599	1.1614	1.1566	1.1559
NZD/USD	0.5921	0.5925	0.5888	0.5889
AUD/USD	0.7122	0.7124	0.7065	0.7076
USD/JPY	159.0980	159.3970	158.8470	159.2990
USD/CAD	1.3858	1.3875	1.3853	1.3874
EUR/JPY	184.5320	184.6378	184.1210	184.2700
CHF/USD	1.2358	1.2389	1.2293	1.2285
EUR/CHF	0.9385	0.9409	0.9374	0.9413

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index fell to an over 10-week low Monday as investors pared expectations of a rate hike at the September meeting of the US Federal Open Market Committee to 30% from 33% Friday after weaker-than-expected US retail data. US retail sales fell 0.6% month-on-month in July, sharply missing expectations of a 0.1% rise and reversing June's 0.2% gain, data released Friday showed. It was the first decline since October and the biggest since May 2025. The dollar index was at 99.38 at 1440 IST, down from 99.62 Friday.

 

The yen rose slightly against the ‌dollar at 159.095, on track for a second straight day of modest gains, after data Monday showed Japanese GDP for the second quarter expanded at an annualised 1.1%. However, it missed market expectations for 2% growth as lower domestic demand offset strong exports.

 

The euro was up 0.2% at $1.1583, breaching a two-month high, while the British pound sterling was 0.1% stronger at $1.3551, approaching its strongest level since May. The Canadian dollar rose 0.1% to 1.386 per dollar as investors awaited CPI data due later in the day.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: 1-year premium at 3-week high as importers buy forward dollars

 

	AT 1314 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.6100	95.4775	95.4775	95.6225	95.4250
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	265.83	269.00	269.00	265.00	259.17

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium snapped a three-day fall and neared a three-week high as banks bought forward dollars on behalf of importers who feared depreciation of the rupee as the RBI's premature closure of the swap facility for FCNR(B) deposits led to investors paring expectations of dollar inflows.

 

The rupee fell to an over-two-week low of 95.6225 per dollar in the spot market Monday. The volatility in crude oil price kept the rupee on the edge, with Brent crude for October delivery rising to $88.87 per barrel, up from $88.52 Friday. 

 

The 10-year US Treasury yield fell to 4.68% at 1414 IST, down from 4.69% Friday, which further supported the forward premiums. US yields fell as market expectations of interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve weakened after softer-than-expected US economic data Friday.

 

At 1415 IST, the one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.78%, up sharply from Friday's close of 2.72%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 265.83 paise, against 259.17 paise Friday.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Remains down on importers' dlr buy, higher crude oil prices

 

	AT 1315 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.6050	95.4775	95.4775	95.6225	95.4250

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell sharply as importers bought dollars actively, fearing depreciation of the Indian unit, as investors pared expectations of dollar inflows after the Reserve Bank of India said it will cease concessional swap facility for foreign currency non-resident (banks) deposits post Aug. 31.

 

Traders had expected foreign fund inflows of around $100 billion, with FCNR (B) leading these inflows. "The overall expectation of $100 billion inflows has changed to around $75 billion-$80 billion now. Banks have cut their targets with just two weeks left, but they will attract as many deposits as possible," a dealer at a private sector bank said.

 

Brent crude oil was broadly steady but remained elevated as investors fear significant energy supply disruption, which weighed on the Indian unit. Brent crude for October delivery was at $88.40 per barrel, against $88.52 Friday. The Trump administration Friday vowed to impose economic sanctions against Iran, with an aim at forcing Tehran to surrender. 

 

However, the public sector banks sold dollars for the RBI, which curbed the fall of the Indian unit, dealers said. The RBI likely sold dollars at all levels, as the demand for dollars was aggressive, they said. The RBI has been supporting the dollars since last week, keeping the rupee range bound despite a rise in crude oil and flare-ups in West Asia. 

 

The dollar index fell to over a 10-week-high, which supported the Indian unit. The index was down due to weaker than expected US economic data, after which investors pared the expectation of a rate hike in the September meeting. The dollar index was 99.32 at 1314 IST, down from 99.62 Friday.  

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 95.50 and 95.70 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 95.70 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Aug 17

 

MUMBAI – At 1136 IST, the rupee was at 95.5975 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 95.4775 a dollar, against the previous close of 95.4250. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participant	S2	S1	R1	R2
Public-sector bank	95.80	95.70	95.30	95.20
Private-sector bank	95.80	95.70	95.45	95.35
Private-sector bank	95.75	95.65	95.45	95.25
Brokerage firm	95.82	95.70	95.40	95.32
Brokerage firm	95.85	95.65	95.50	95.40

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Rise as dollar weakens; Taiwan dollar up most

 

MUMBAI – Asian currencies rose in early Asian trade as the dollar index fell sharply after a weaker-than-expected US economic data shed the safe-haven status of the greenback. Investors scaled back expectations of a rate hike at the September meeting to 31% from 35% Friday, as per CME Fed Watchtool, which weighed on the index. At 1000 IST, the dollar index fell to 99.49 from 99.62 Friday. 

 

US retail sales fell 0.6% month-on-month in July, sharply missing expectation for a 0.1% rise and reversing June's 0.2% gain, data released on Friday showed. It was the first decline since October 2025 and the biggest since May last year. Meanwhile, consumer sentiment weakened to 51 in early August, down from 55.2 in July and below market expectations of 54.5, ending two consecutive months of improvement, according to data released by the University of Michigan.

 

The Taiwan dollar rose the most among Asian peers Monday. The Taiwan currency was up 0.4% at 31.87 Monday as demand for AI-related stocks led to dollar inflows into the market. The South Korean won rose 0.2% to 1,414.38 per dollar Monday as an AI-led rally boosted demand for local currency. 

 

The Indonesian rupiah rose slightly to 17,820 per dollar Monday. The Malaysian ringgit and Thai baht rose 0.2% Monday. Malaysia's central bank said the economy could expand by around 5% this year, toward the upper end of its 4-5% growth forecast, after stronger-than-expected second-quarter growth.

 

Bucking the trend, the Philippine peso continued its losing streak for the third consecutive day and fell 0.2% to 61.51 a dollar. The Hong Kong dollar and Singapore dollar were broadly steady against the dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil) 

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India Rupee: Falls as companies buy dollars after FCNR (B) early closure

 

	AT 0940 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.5700	95.4775	95.4775	95.5950	95.4250

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell in early trade Monday as sentiment turned slightly negative in the market and companies bought dollars after the Reserve Bank of India unexpectedly announced the premature closure of its special measure to boost foreign currency non-resident (banks) deposits after market hours Friday, dealers said.

 

"RBI's early closure for FCNR (B) deposits is seen as negative by the market, because FII won't see supportive measures as sustainable. They either shouldn't have put a timeline or shouldn't have closed it early," a dealer at a public sector bank said. The RBI's swap facility for FCNR(B) deposits will now be available for deposits mobilised till Aug. 31, against the previous deadline of Sept. 30, the central bank said in a press release Friday.

 

However, public sector banks sold dollars for the Reserve Bank of India at around 95.55, limiting sharp decline of the Indian unit, dealers said. 

 

A rise in crude oil prices also put pressure on the Indian unit. Tensions between the US and Iran escalated after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Friday that the Trump administration was preparing new economic sanctions against Iran that "have never been seen in the history of economic isolation of a country". Brent crude oil for October delivery was $88.76 per barrel, up from $88.52 Monday. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 95.40 and 95.70 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 95.70 a dollar. "Since the rupee crossed 95.50, the RBI will let the rupee move 15-20 paise and then may defend 95.75 or figure (96.00)," the dealer said.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Aug 17

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Monday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll: 

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Private-sector bank	95.65	95.35
Private-sector bank	95.70	95.35
Private-sector bank	95.60	95.40
Private-sector bank	95.65	95.45
Brokerage firm	95.70	95.40
Brokerage firm	95.80	95.35

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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