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Informist, Friday, Aug. 14, 2026

By Divya Moolayattil

 

MUMBAI – The rupee closed steady on Friday as persistent dollar sales by the Reserve Bank of India managed market volatility and countered the impact of rising crude oil prices. The local unit also found support from overnight weakening of the dollar index and remained range-bound for the last day of the week as well. 

 

"The RBI was in today as well, but they were selling at very less volumes, just to keep the rupee steady. They didn't have to sell much because the market activity was dull," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

The rupee settled at 95.4250 a dollar, steady against Thursday's close of 95.4400. It traded in a tight range of 7 paise during the day. Asian currencies also held steady on Friday, but the South Korean won and the Indonesian rupiah outperformed their regional peers with strong gains.

 

Despite rising global crude oil prices and escalating tensions in West Asia, the Indian rupee depreciated just 0.3% this week due to constant interventions by the RBI. Supported by the central bank, the domestic currency remained highly range-bound, trading within a narrow range of only 28 paise throughout the week.

 

The rupee opened slightly higher on Friday as the dollar weakened overnight after softer consumer price index and producer price index data reduced the odds of a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve in September to 30% from 34% on Thursday. At 1530 IST, the dollar index was at 99.74, down from 99.95 Thursday.

 

However, crude oil prices rose intraday after US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth said that the US could sustain its blockade against Iran "indefinitely", which put pressure on the Indian unit. At 1530 IST, Brent crude oil for October delivery was at $87.21 per barrel, up from $87.07 Thursday. Volatility in crude oil prices kept the market on the edge Friday.

 

The RBI's constant dollar sales at around 95.44 made sure the rupee remained steady. The RBI's intervention amid dollar inflows into their foreign exchange reserves through the FCNR (B) deposit scheme kept speculators at bay. "Traders' hands are tied now, they can't do anything because the RBI has taken the driver's seat," the dealer said.

 

Lack of demand for dollars from importers kept market activity subdued. "The spot market was range-bound. Only when there is a sharp depreciation of the rupee, will we see active buying by importers, otherwise, they are quiet," a dealer at a private sector bank said.

 

A slight fall in domestic equities weighed on the Indian unit. The Nifty 50 and the Sensex fell 0.1% Friday.    

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.4250	95.3700	95.3700	95.4425	95.4400
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	259.17	259.51	260.17	257.51	260.50

 

 

 

FORWARDS 

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium remained at a six-week low for the second consecutive day Friday on surplus liquidity in the market, owing to inflows into foreign currency non-resident (bank) deposits, dealers said. The RBI's concessional swap facility scheme has increased rupee liquidity in the market as banks swapped dollars from three to five-year FCNR(B) deposits with the central bank without any hedging costs. 

 

US Treasury yields climbed as crude oil prices rose intraday after the US threatened to block shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, putting further pressure on forward premiums. The 10-year US Treasury yield was 4.66% at 1530 IST, up from 4.65% Thursday. 

 

Lack of demand for forward dollars from importers left forward premiums without any supporting market forces. At 1530 IST, the one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.72%, down from 2.73% Thursday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 259.17 paise, slightly lower than 260.50 paise at Thursday's close.

 

OUTLOOK 

On Monday, the rupee will continue to track crude oil prices amid developments around a peace deal between the US and Iran. Dealers expect the RBI to continue dollar sales, keeping the Indian unit steady in the wake of rising uncertainty in the West Asia war. 

 

Market participants will keep a close eye on the dollar index as investors scaled back their expectations of a rate hike at the Fed's next meeting in September. "Technically, the rupee is expected to remain in the 95.10–95.80 range in the near term, with crude and the dollar remaining key directional triggers," Jateen Trivedi, VP research analyst - commodity and currency, LKP Securities said in a note.

 

Dealers see strong technical support for the Indian currency at 95.50 per dollar, a break below which may drag the rupee to 95.75. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 95.30–95.50 against the dollar Monday.

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India Rupee - World FX: Dollar falls on mild US inflation data

 

	AT 1516 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3523	1.3527	1.3486	1.3485
EUR/USD	1.1553	1.1558	1.1529	1.1526
NZD/USD	0.5880	0.5881	0.5848	0.5847
AUD/USD	0.7074	0.7075	0.7056	0.7055
USD/JPY	159.1460	159.5190	159.0660	159.5220
USD/CAD	1.3890	1.3933	1.3887	1.3931
EUR/JPY	183.8470	183.9709	183.7000	183.8700
CHF/USD	1.2296	1.2301	1.2278	1.2279
EUR/CHF	0.9394	0.9405	0.9380	0.9383
Dollar Index	99.7500	99.9360	99.6990	99.9490

 

India Rupee - World FX: Dollar falls on mild US inflation data

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index fell marginally against major currencies Friday as benign US inflation data dampened expectations for an interest rate hike in September, dimming the greenback's appeal. However, rising crude oil prices and higher US Treasury yields supported the demand for the safe haven currency and kept the index near 100. The market has priced in an over 67% chance of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in September, up from about 56% a week ago, according to CME FedWatch.

 

The Japanese yen rose slightly against the dollar but continued to hover near 160 as traders remained wary of an intervention by the Bank of Japan. Traders' expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in the near term rose, supporting the Japanese currency. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's government is said to be supportive of a near-term rate hike by the central bank, with a rate hike in either September or October, according to a Bloomberg report. The yen was steady at 159.15 a dollar Friday, up from 159.46 Thursday.

 

The euro rose 0.2% against the dollar ahead of eurozone employment and GDP data, while the British sterling rose to 0.740 Friday from 0.742 Thursday after an unexpected rise in the UK GDP. Markets continued to expect a rate hike from the Bank of England this year, according to Reuters, which supported the sterling. The Swiss franc rose slightly to 0.81 a dollar while the Swedish krona rose to 9.53 a dollar Friday from 9.57 a dollar Thursday. 

 

The Australian dollar rose marginally to 1.41 a dollar after a senior Australian central banker told Reuters Thursday that the threat of inflation remains on the upside and "a lot of things" will need to go right to avert another rate increase, boosting expectations of a rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia in the near term. The Canadian dollar rose marginally after moderate inflation data.  (Janaki Venugopalan)

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India Rupee: 1-yr premium at 6-week low on high liquidity, rise in US yields

 

	AT 1350 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.4350	95.3700	95.3700	95.4375	95.4400
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	258.17	259.51	260.17	257.51	260.50

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium fell to a six-week low Friday on surplus liquidity in the market, owing to inflows into foreign currency non-resident (bank) deposits, dealers said. Dollar-rupee forward premiums fell for the third consecutive day across tenures, with two- and three-months falling the most. "FCNR (B) deposits have increased the liquidity in the market. When there is more supply, it is obvious that prices will fall," a dealer at a public sector bank said. 

 

The RBI's concessional swap facility scheme has increased rupee liquidity in the market as banks swapped dollars from three- to five-year FCNR(B) deposits with the central bank without any hedging costs. 

 

US Treasury yields climbed as crude oil prices rose intraday after the US threatened to block shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, putting further pressure on forward premiums. The 10-year US Treasury yield was 4.67% at 1330 IST, up from 4.65% Thursday. 

 

Lack of demand for forward dollars from importers left forward premiums without any supporting market forces. "The spot market is range-bound now. Only when there is a sharp depreciation of the rupee, will we see active buying by importers, but right now, they are quiet," the dealer said. 

 

At 1350 IST, the one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.70%, down from 2.73% Thursday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 257.85 paise, slightly lower than 260.50 paise at Thursday's close.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee:Steady as RBI intervenes to keep impact of higher crude in check

 

	AT 1200 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.4175	95.3700	95.3700	95.4300	95.4400

 

MUMBAI – The rupee held firm Friday as the Reserve Bank of India sold dollars in low volumes through public sector banks to support the Indian unit and prevent any volatility in the market amid rising crude oil prices, dealers said. "The RBI was there in the market in the morning, they sold at 95.40-95.43 levels, but hardly anything. They are intervening in smaller amounts and are just controlling it and keeping it (rupee) below 95.40," a dealer from a foreign bank said. 

 

The dealer noted that the RBI's intervention in the spot market has kept the speculators at bay, reducing any volatility affecting the rupee as rising oil prices and uncertainties in West Asia continue to weigh the currency down. "It's because the RBI keeps the spot anchored and when the volatility is dead, the traders can't do much right," another dealer from a foreign bank said.

 

Some dealers speculated an intervention in the non-deliverable forwards market before the market opened to further support the currency. "RBI is there in spot and they are intervening in the offshore market, but the customers' reaction is muted... There was an NDF maturity yesterday, so against that they were just on the selling side to maintain the outflows," another dealer from a foreign bank said. 

 

Banks bought dollars for importers, which weighed on the Indian currency. However, dealers also noted that the volume of bidding was very low Friday and expected the rupee to be at the same level throughout the day. "Basically, there is nothing much happening in the market, even if somebody comes in with a query and does a smaller volume also the market is just moving in that direction. They need not do in size, a smaller volume is also moving the market right now," the dealer added.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 95.20 and 95.50 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 95.50 a dollar.  (Janaki Venugopalan)

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India Rupee: Tad up as dollar weakens; rise in crude oil weighs

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.4000	95.3700	95.3700	95.4250	95.4400

 

MUMBAI – The rupee inched up against the dollar in early trade Friday as greenback weakened after a softer US consumer price index and producer price index inflation data pared investors' expectation of a September Fed rate hike to 35% from 41% Thursday. 

 

The market remained on the edge due to volatility in crude oil prices, which is driven by the US and Iran's conflicting signals over control on the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude oil for October delivery fell overnight to $86.20 per barrel, but reversed back to $87.13 at 0930 IST. 

 

Dealers speculate the state-owned banks sold dollars likely for the Reserve Bank of India, which kept the rupee below the key support of 95.50 level. "The RBI is comfortable in this range. They have to reward exporters also. I think they will keep rupee today also in the same range," a dealer at a public sector bank said.  

 

Dealers expect the rupee to be range bound Friday, while few said the RBI may actively intervene to push the dollar-rupee 10-15 paise down and provide a cushion against any unexpected global market volatility over the weekend. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 95.20 and 95.50 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 95.50 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Mixed, West Asia war in focus

 

MUMBAI – Asian currencies moved on a mixed note Friday as threats from the US about indefinitely maintaining a naval blockade on Iran fuelled fears of an extended increase in energy import costs, while tamer US inflation data and a steady dollar Thursday helped most Asian currencies stay intact. The renewed enthusiasm for technology hardware stocks after continued reports of massive artificial intelligence spending by major technology companies on Wall Street boosted foreign inflows in Asian equities, with Taiwan and South Korea gaining the most and boosting the local currencies. 

 

The Taiwan dollar and the Korean won had the most gains among the Asian currencies Friday. The Taiwan dollar led the gains and rose marginally to 31.98 a dollar Friday from 32.12 Thursday, driven by foreign capital inflows into local equities. While the Korean won rose marginally against the dollar Friday to 1,412.98 from 1,418.17 in the previous session after the Bank of Korea's preliminary data projected that the import price index fell 15 on month following a 4.2% on-month drop in June.

 

The Japanese yen hovered near 160 against the dollar Friday as traders remained wary of another joint intervention by the Japanese government to support the currency. The lack of sustained support from the previous joint intervention bolstered bets of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in the near term to prevent the weaker yen adding to inflation. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's government is said to be supportive of a near-term rate hike by the Bank of Japan, with a rate hike in either September or October, according to a Bloomberg report. The yen was steady at 159.41 a dollar Friday. 

 

The Thai Baht and the Chinese Yuan fell slightly Friday to 33.20 and 6.74 a dollar, respectively. The Philippine peso held steady at 61.36 a dollar Friday.  (Janaki Venugopalan)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Aug 14

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Friday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll: 

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Public-sector bank	95.50	95.30
Private-sector bank	95.50	95.20
Private-sector bank	95.55	95.30
Foreign bank	95.50	95.20
Brokerage firm	95.45	95.20
Brokerage firm	95.48	95.22

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 95.4250

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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