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Informist, Thursday, Aug. 13, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell slightly against the dollar Thursday due to demand for dollars from oil marketing companies and other importers, dealers said. However, the Reserve Bank of India's persistent dollar sales kept the Indian unit range-bound and limited the fall of the currency. Lack of major market drivers also kept the rupee range-bound. 

 

"Any major positive news, domestic or global, can drive the rupee up, otherwise it will depreciate. The RBI's intervention can only slow down that depreciation," a dealer at a private sector bank said.

 

The rupee settled at 95.4400 per dollar on Thursday, down from Wednesday's close of 95.3300 per dollar. The Indian unit moved in a tight range of 10 paise due to RBI's support throughout the day. Most Asian currencies fell 0.1%-0.3% against the dollar Thursday, with the South Korean won being the worst performer.  

 

The Indian unit was range-bound Thursday as inflation data from the US and India met economists' estimates, and the currency found it difficult to draw direction from muted crude oil prices. The US and India's CPI inflation data for July failed to make a strong case for rate hikes at upcoming central bank meetings, dealers said.   

 

The rupee opened broadly steady as the RBI sold dollars to contain volatility in the market and prevent the Indian unit from falling to the key support zone of 95.50 per dollar. Earlier in the day, the central bank also likely intervened through dollar sales in the offshore non-deliverable forwards market before the spot market opened and moved over 10 paise to open at 95.33 Thursday, according to dealers. "There will be negative sentiment in the market, unless some sort of RBI intervention comes. Right now, they are selling, but very mildly. Whenever, the rupee touches 95.45 (per dollar), the RBI brings it 15-20 paise down," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

They also said that the speculators' activity had subdued because of the RBI's constant dollar sales in the market. "They have kitty filled with FCNR deposits, so people will not go agressive and take positions," the dealer said.

 

Banks bought dollars for importers, though the bidding was mild compared to other days, dealers said. "OMCs (oil marketing compaines) bought a lot last week. This week it is not much. The uncertainity in crude oil prices is driving their purchases," a dealer at a foreign bank said.   

 

The market was on edge due to lack of clear direction of the crude oil prices as the US and Iran gave conflicting signals over the control of the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil prices fell slightly but remained near $90 per barrel Thursday on OPEC's lower crude oil demand projections for 2026 from global organisations. At 1530 IST, Brent crude oil for October delivery was at $87.45 a barrel, against $88.98 Wednesday. 

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.4400	95.3600	95.3475	95.4550	95.3300
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	260.50	264.00	264.00	260.20	266.48

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium neared a six-week low across tenures for the second consecutive day, owing to high rupee liquidity in the market, thanks to inflows into the foreign currency non-resident (banks) scheme. The RBI's concessional swap facility scheme has increased rupee liquidity in the market as banks swapped dollars from three- to five-year FCNR(B) deposits with the central bank without any hedging costs. 

 

The forward premiums was seen tracking the spot market, which was broadly muted Thursday. However, dealers noted that some banks bought forward dollars for importers, fearing a rise in crude oil prices, which limited the fall in forward premiums.

 

At 1530 IST, the benchmark US Treasury yield fell slightly to 4.68% from 4.69% Wednesday, which also supported forward premiums, they said.

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.73%, down from 2.78% Wednesday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 260.50 paise, slightly lower than 266.48 paise at Wednesday's close.  

 

OUTLOOK 

Traders will remain focused on developments related to West Asia and crude oil prices for more cues on the direction of the Indian unit. Market participants will keep a close eye on the dollar index, as they await US core production price index data, due on Friday. 

 

Dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars fearing further weakening of the rupee, which will weigh on the Indian currency. The RBI is likely to continue to intervene if the rupee comes under extreme pressure. They expect the central bank to continue protecting 95.50 a dollar, as has been the case recently. 

 

"In the near term, spot USD/INR is expected to head higher with support at 95.10 and resistance at 95.60," Dilip Parmar, research analyst at HDFC Securities, said in a note. Dealers see strong technical support for the Indian currency at 95.50 per dollar, a break below which may drag the rupee to 95.75. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 95.30–95.50 against the dollar Friday.

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India Rupee: Premiums dn on high liquidity; importers' fwd dlr buys support

 

	AT 1420 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.4125	95.3600	95.3425	95.4375	95.3300
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	260.60	264.00	264.00	260.35	266.48

 

MUMBAI – Dollar-rupee forward premiums edged lower across tenures for the second day running owing to high rupee liquidity in the market, thanks to inflows into the foreign currency non-resident (banks) scheme. The RBI's concessional swap facility scheme has increased rupee liquidity in the market as banks swapped dollars from three- to five-year FCNR(B) deposits with the central bank without any hedging costs. 

 

However, dealers remained wary of the long-term impact of the FCNR(B) deposits on the forward market. "Forwards receiving against surplus liquidity, but my problem with this is that the RBI is subsidising to get dollars from nationalised banks and the RBI's forward books would have ballooned up with the FCNR deposits, and that won't reflect in the country's balance of payments as well, which would diminish the overall outlook of the country abroad and reduce foreign inflows," a dealer from a foreign bank said. Banks have attracted nearly $36.73 billion from Jun. 8 to Jul. 31 through FCNR(B) deposits. 

 

The forward premiums are seen tracking the spot market, which was broadly muted Thursday. However, dealers noted that some banks bought forward dollars for importers, fearing a rise in crude oil prices, which limited the fall of the forward premiums.

 

The benchmark US Treasury yield fell slightly to 4.68% from 4.69% Wednesday, which also supported forward premiums, they said.

 

At 1420 IST, the one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.73%, down from 2.78% Tuesday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 260.60 paise, slightly lower than 266.48 paise at Wednesday close.  (Janaki Venugopalan)

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India Rupee: Tad dn on importers' demand; RBI's dlr sales prevent sharp fall

 

	AT 1230 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.4150	95.3600	95.3450	95.4150	95.3300

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell slightly against the dollar Thursday as banks bought dollars for oil marketing companies and other importers, fearing further rise in crude oil prices, dealers said.  

 

However, the Reserve Bank of India's mild dollar sales through public sector banks prevented the rupee from falling to 95.50 per dollar. Earlier in the day, the central bank also likely intervened through dollar sales in the offshore non-deliverable forwards market before the spot market opened, according to dealers. 

 

The RBI has been continuously supporting the Indian currency through dollar inflows from FCNR (B)deposits, they said. "The rupee was at 95.42 (a dollar) in the offshore market, the RBI intervened and brought it to 95.30. The RBI's intervention is to curb any volatility in the market more than to make up for importers' demand in the market today as there is low activity," a dealer from a foreign bank said. 

 

Dealers expect the rupee to be range-bound during the day as major cues remained muted. Crude oil prices fell slightly but remained near $90 per barrel Thursday as OPEC's lower crude oil demand projections for 2026 from global organisations mildly offset the impact of a deadlock between the US and Iran over a peace deal. At 1314 IST, Brent crude oil for October delivery was at $88.01 a barrel, up from $88.98 Wednesday.

 

The rupee did not see any impact from US consumer inflation data, as it was in line with market expectations. The dollar remained unchanged after fears of a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve subsided, which helped the Indian unit.  

 

Traders remained focused on news developments in West Asia and crude oil prices for more cues on the direction of the Indian unit. "Right now, the main thing is crude, but there are no major events today affecting the rupee," a dealer from a private bank said.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 95.20 and 95.50 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 95.50 a dollar.  (Janaki Venugopalan)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Aug 13

 

MUMBAI – At 1126 IST, the rupee was at 95.3600 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 95.3600 a dollar, against the previous close of 95.3300. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participant	S2	S1	R1	R2
Public-sector bank	95.55	95.45	95.30	95.20
Private-sector bank	95.50	95.40	95.30	95.25
Private-sector bank	95.50	95.45	95.30	95.20
Brokerage firm	95.65	95.50	95.30	95.22
Brokerage firm	95.55	95.45	95.35	95.25

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Inches down as dollar strengthens; RBI's support speculated

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.3600	95.3600	95.3450	95.3675	95.3300

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell slightly against the dollar Thursday as the greenback strengthened after the US CPI inflation cooled on year, compared with the previous month. "People are selling the rupee, but there will not be much, as US inflation impact was already discounted," a dealer at a public sector bank said. 

 

The US consumer price index data was in line with the consensus expectation, with headline inflation falling to 3.4% on year in July from 3.5% in June.

 

Dealers speculate that the Reserve Bank of India likely sold dollars through public sector banks, which limited the fall of Indian unit. The RBI likely sold dollars around 95.36 in the spot market. 

 

Traders remain cautious due to volatility in crude oil prices. Crude oil prices fell slightly as OPEC lowered its world oil demand growth forecast for 2026 to 580,000 barrels per day, down from 800,000 barrels a day previously. At 0930 IST, Brent crude oil for October futures was $88.39 per barrel, down from $88.98 Wednesday.

 

During the day, dealers expect importers to purchase the greenback, fearing further weakness of the Indian unit. However, they expect the central bank to intervene through dollar sales in the spot market as well, limiting sharp losses for the Indian unit. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 95.20 and 95.50 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 95.40 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most steady; South Korean won, Taiwan dollar rise

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies held steady against the dollar Thursday as the pressure on them eased after a fall in crude oil prices and steady US consumer inflation data.

 

Crude oil prices fell about 1% but remained at a weekly high as lower crude oil demand projections for 2026 from global organisations offset the impact of a stand-off between the US and Iran over a peace deal. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and the International Energy Agency lowered their demand forecast for 2026 as restricted fuel supplies and higher prices due to the West Asia war reduced demand for crude oil. The US Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday that crude oil inventories in the US rose unexpectedly last week as imports increased and exports fell. At 0850 IST, Brent crude oil for October delivery was at $87.87 a barrel, up from $88.98 Wednesday.

 

The Japanese yen held steady at 159.44 Thursday as traders cautiously awaited another intervention from the Japanese government and the US to support the currency from falling back to its previous 40-year lows. Traders are also increasingly expecting another interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan by the end of the year. Traders see about a 60% chance of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in September, with an October move fully priced in, according to Bloomberg. 

 

The Korean won rose slightly to 1,415.28 a dollar Thursday from 1,417.25 Wednesday as semiconductor exporters continued to sell dollars in the market. However, the currency was weighed down by the war in West Asia and volatility in the local stock market driven by artificial intelligence stocks. The Taiwan dollar rose slightly to 32.16 against the dollar Thursday from 32.22 Wednesday. 

 

The Philippine peso fell slightly to 61.24 a dollar Thursday from 61.17 Wednesday. While the Thai baht, the Chinese yuan, Malaysian Ringgit, and the Singapore dollar all remained flat.  (Janaki Venugopalan)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Aug 13

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Thursday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll: 

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Public-sector bank	95.50	95.30
Private-sector bank	95.50	95.20
Private-sector bank	95.55	95.30
Foreign bank	95.50	95.20
Brokerage firm	95.55	95.20
Brokerage firm	95.48	95.22

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 95.33

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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