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Informist, Tuesday, Aug. 11, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell to a 12-day low against the dollar Tuesday as crude oil prices crossed $90 per barrel for the first time in over a week amid uncertainty over reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, dealers said. Importers also bought dollars actively, fearing further depreciation of the rupee, which also put pressure on the Indian unit. However, the Reserve Bank of India's mild intervention limited the fall of the Indian unit during the day. 

 

"The RBI was there throughout the day at 95.40 (a dollar) and 95.45, but they were very passive. They were just meeting the demand in the market and were providing liquidity," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

The Indian unit settled at 95.4350 a dollar Tuesday, lower than Monday's close of 95.3000 per dollar. The rupee traded in a tight range of 8 paise during the day. Asian currencies also fell against the dollar Tuesday, with the Philippine peso being the worst performer, followed by Thai baht. The Philippine peso fell 0.9%, its biggest drop since May 11, as uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices higher. 

 

The rupee fell in early trade as crude oil prices remained elevated to an over one-week high for the second consecutive day as confidence in a deal between the US and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz faded after both countries continued to trade demands for reopening ‌of the strait. At 1530 IST, Brent crude oil for October delivery was at $89.56 a barrel, up from $87.72 Monday and $83.55 Friday. 

 

Rising crude oil prices prompted importers, especially oil marketing companies, to buy dollars, which weighed further on the Indian currency. However, the rupee's weakness was contained as the RBI sold dollars through public sector banks. Dealers said the RBI was protecting 95.45 per dollar, because if the rupee breached that level, dealers would chase 95.70-95.80 per dollar and the speculators would also take long dollar positions. 

 

Dealers said the RBI has legroom to defend the rupee as it received robust dollar inflows through a special concessional forex swap facility and foreign currency non-resident (bank) deposits, which has kept speculators away from betting against the rupee. Foreign fund inflows into schemes announced by the RBI in June attracted $40.82 billion from Jun. 8 to Jul. 31, of which $36.73 came through the FCNR(B) deposits concessional window.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.4350	95.3900	95.3700	95.4500	95.3000
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	266.95	265.33	267.57	265.33	263.67

 

FORWARDS

The dollar rupee forward premium rose across tenures Tuesday as some banks bought forward dollars for importers, fearing further fall of the rupee amid a rise in crude oil prices, dealers said. The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium rose for the third consecutive day Tuesday. 

 

US Treasury yields rose amid uncertainity around the West Asia war, which limited the rise of forward premiums. At 1530 IST, the benchmark US Treasury yield was at 4.73%, against 4.71% Monday. At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.80%, up from 2.77% Monday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 266.95 paise, up slightly from 263.67 paise Monday. 

 

OUTLOOK 

On Wednesday, the rupee is likely to track movement in crude oil prices amid developments in West Asia, dealers said. The domestic currency will also continue to take cues from movement in the dollar index as traders await US inflation data, due Wednesday, for more cues on the interest rate path.

 

India's inflation data is also due Wednesday. Economists expect India's headline inflation print for July to remain steady at 4.4?spite higher food prices caused by deficient rainfall across the country, according to an Informist poll.

 

Market participants will also keep an eye on potential foreign fund inflows from the measures announced by the RBI and the government in June to attract foreign capital, they said. Dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars, which will weigh on the rupee. 

 

The RBI is likely to continue to intervene if the rupee comes under extreme pressure. "Despite the recent surge in oil prices, the rupee's decline has remained relatively contained, supported by the central bank intervention," Dilip Parmar, senior research analyst, HDFC Securities, said in a note.

 

Dealers see strong technical support for the Indian currency at 95.50 per dollar, a break of which may drag the rupee to 95.75. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 95.20–95.60 against the dollar on Wednesday.

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India rupee: 1-year premium rises for 3rd day as importers buy fwd dollars

 

	AT 1403 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.4325	95.3900	95.3700	95.4500	95.2075
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	267.45	265.33	267.57	265.33	263.67

 

MUMBAI – The dollar rupee forward premium rose across tenures Tuesday as some banks bought forward dollars for importers, fearing further fall of the rupee amid a rise in crude oil prices, dealers said. The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium rose for the third consecutive day as it tracked the rupee in the spot market, a dealer from a foreign bank said.

The rupee fell slightly against the dollar in the spot market Tuesday as oil prices neared $90 per barrel and demand for dollars from importers rose gradually. However, the fall of the Indian unit was limited as the Reserve Bank of India intervened by the way of dollar sales through nationalised banks, dealers said. Crude oil prices neared a three-week high after a deadlock between the US and Iran as the two countries traded demands to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. At 1323 IST, Brent crude oil for October delivery was at $89.30 a barrel, up from $87.72 Monday.

 

Some dealers also speculated that the RBI most likely used some of the dollars from the foreign currency non-resident deposits for intervention, while keeping the rest to build their dollar reserves and buy dollar assets. "RBI is already using the inflows from the FCNR deposits, but at smaller paces, which is why their reserves have also gone up," a dealer from a foreign bank said. 

 

Dealers also noted that the RBI has reduced its forward dollar short position and therefore is less likely to use the inflows from the FCNR deposit to intervene in the forwards market. "With nearly $100 billion outstanding (net short forward dollar contracts), no one would expect the RBI to use it in the forward market," a dealer from another foreign bank noted. Foreign fund inflows into schemes announced by the RBI attracted $40.82 billion from Jun. 8 to Jul. 31, of which $36.73 came from FCNR (B) deposits.

 

At 1402 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.80%, up from 2.77% Monday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 267.45 paise, up slightly from 263.67 paise Monday. (Janaki Venugopalan)

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India Rupee: Falls on importers' dollar demand; RBI's dlr sales limit fall

 

	AT 1228 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.4300	95.3900	95.3700	95.4350	95.3000

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell slightly on Tuesday as demand for dollars from importers weighed on the currency, but the Indian unit's fall was limited due to intervention from the Reserve Bank of India, dealers said. "The RBI was present, but they were passive, the intervention was not very strong. The intervention was largely because oil prices are up and the US yields are also high," a dealer at a foreign bank said. 

 

Dealers said that some public sector banks sold dollars, likely for the RBI, to limit the rupee's fall. "The RBI is intervening at these small paces and is just constantly present, largely due to the uncertainties in West Asia and rising oil prices, but they are also matching up the demand in the market and are basically providing for it," another dealer from a foreign bank said. 

 

The rupee was also weighed down by higher oil prices and a slightly stronger dollar, but the Indian unit was largely range-bound, dealers noted. "The problem is, if the RBI lets the rupee breach 95.50 or even 95.45, then the market will chase it 50 paisa higher. The market was taking a short (dollar) position just yesterday with the RBI's intervention at the 95.20s levels, but if the rupee breaches 95.40-95.50, the market will go long," the dealer added. 

 

Dealers also speculated that the RBI used some of the inflows from foreign currency non-resident deposits to intervene in the spot market and use the rest to build its foreign exchange reserves. "The RBI will most likely use some of the inflows from the FCNR deposits for intervention and the rest to build dollar assets and build the dollar reserve," the dealer at the foreign bank said. Foreign fund inflows into schemes announced by the RBI attracted $40.82 billion from Jun. 8 to Jul. 31, of which $36.73 came from FCNR (B) deposits.

 

Brent crude oil prices rose for the fifth consecutive day as confidence in a deal between the US and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz faded, with both countries continuing to trade demands for reopening ‌of the strait. At 1257 IST, Brent crude oil for October delivery was at $89.27 a barrel, up from $87.72 Monday.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 95.20 and 95.50 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 95.50 a dollar. (Janaki Venugopalan)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Aug 11

 

MUMBAI – At 1113 IST, the rupee was at 95.3950 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 95.3900 a dollar, against the previous close of 95.3000. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participant	S2	S1	R1	R2
Private-sector bank	95.65	95.55	95.25	95.15
Private-sector bank	95.60	95.50	95.20	95.10
Brokerage firm	95.60	95.40	95.20	95.10
Brokerage firm	95.65	95.44	95.22	95.00

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Falls as crude stays elevated amid uncertainty in West Asia war

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.3800	95.3900	95.3700	95.4000	95.3000

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell slightly against the dollar as crude oil prices remained over one-week high for the second consecutive day due to dampened hopes of a diplomatic resolution between the US and Iran and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude oil for October delivery was at $87.80 per barrel, up from $87.72 Monday, but sharply up from $83.55 Friday.

 

"Iran has now set up conditions for the reopening of the Strait, that has bought some negative sentiment in the market. Crude is also showing no signs of recovery due to uncertainty in West Asia," a dealer at a public sector bank said. "However, FPIs are not going out of market, that is the only respite for the rupee now."

 

Dealers expect importers to buy dollars actively, fearing further depreciation of the Indian currency amid rising crude oil prices. However, dealers also expect banks to sell dollars for foreign portfolio investors, which may limit the fall of the Indian unit. FPIs bought INR-19.75-billion shares on Monday.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 95.20 and 95.50 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 95.50 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most steady but hopes of US-Iran deal low

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies held steady against the dollar Tuesday as traders waited for new developments in the war in West Asia. Oil prices continued to rise for the fifth consecutive day, which weighed on the Asian currencies as investors lost confidence in the deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. At 0858 IST, Brent crude oil for October delivery was slightly up at $87.92 a barrel from $87.72 Monday.

 

The Japanese yen held steady at 159.26 against the dollar Tuesday following a sharp fall the previous day after the country posted an unexpected current account deficit in June. The currency remained lower than the three-month high of 155.20 after the joint currency intervention by the US and Japan. The Japanese government's fiscal policies and weak economic data raised concerns among investors, weighing the currency down. "Japan's spending plans will provide a long-term boost for the yen," Japanese Growth Strategy Minister Minoru Kiuchi said Monday, opposing market concerns over the nation's finances.

 

The South Korean won rose marginally Tuesday and regained some of its losses from the previous session as foreign investors bought the won to invest in technology stocks on the local stock market. The South Korean won was at 1,414.78 a dollar Tuesday, up from 1,417.72 Monday.

 

The Philippine peso led the loss among Asian currencies as it fell marginally to 61.04 a dollar Tuesday from 60.72 Monday due to slower economic growth and rising oil prices. The Thai baht followed the peso as it fell slightly to 33.01 per dollar Tuesday from 32.98 Monday as the cost of energy imports and a stronger dollar weighed the currency down. 

 

The Taiwan dollar and the Chinese yuan held steady at 32.23 and 6.74, respectively, against the dollar. (Janaki Venugopalan)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Aug 11

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Tuesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll: 

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Public-sector bank	95.60	95.20
Private-sector bank	95.60	95.20
Private-sector bank	95.55	95.20
Brokerage firm	95.45	95.25
Brokerage firm	95.55	95.20

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 95.4350

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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