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Informist, Wednesday, Aug. 5, 2026

 

MUMBAI – The rupee rose sharply against the dollar to end at a four-week high as crude oil prices fell to $80 a barrel for the first time in three weeks amid easing tensions in West Asia and revived hopes of the Strait of Hormuz reopening, dealers said. During the day, the Reserve Bank of India sold dollars to offset the aggressive dollar demand from importers.

 

"The rupee went to 94 levels after a long time, the US and Iran truce stayed, and crude fell sharply, so it was obvious that importers would rush in," a dealer at a private sector bank said.

 

The rupee, which touched a five-week high of 94.9200 a dollar, erased some gains to settle at 95.1175 a dollar Wednesday, sharply higher from the previous close of 95.3775. The rupee moved in a range of 32 paise during the day. Other Asian currencies rose 0.2%-0.5% against the dollar Wednesday, with the Indonesian currency being the best performer.  

 

The rupee opened 46 paise higher as crude oil prices fell to an over three-week low after the US reiterated that negotiations with Iran were under way. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the US and Iran could reach a deal to open the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday. At 1530 IST, Brent crude oil for October delivery was at $80.65 a barrel, down from Tuesday's high of $86.33 a barrel.

 

However, the rupee could not sustain early gains as importers stepped in and bought dollars, noting the sharp fall in crude and relatively lower dollar-rupee levels. Importers' demand erased most gains in the rupee, but the RBI sold dollars, making sure the rupee did not trade below 95.24 a dollar. Dealers said the central bank's intervention was very mild. 

 

The rupee was unchanged during most of the Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra's monetary policy statement at 1000 IST. Dealers said the governor's tone was broadly neutral, in line with market expectations. The Monetary Policy Committee unanimously kept the repo rates steady at 5.25% Wednesday. "It is quite possible that the rupee may strengthen going forward if the West Asia war de-escalates," Malhotra said in the post-policy press conference, adding that the RBI will intervene only when there is excessive volatility in the market.

 

The RBI governor said the recent measures to attract foreign fund inflows will help channel expectations on the rupee's exchange rate. The RBI governor also noted that flows into Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank) deposits have been robust and said that there is no proposal to extend the window. Inflows into the schemes announced by the RBI in June attracted $40.82 billion as of Jul. 31, of which $36.73 came from FCNR (B) deposits.

 

Dealers said speculators have scaled down their bets against the rupee now as they know the RBI has dollar inflows due to recent measures, which give them legroom to intervene and support the rupee. Speculators also expect the rupee to appreciate further due to these inflows, they said. 

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.1175	94.9200	94.9200	95.2475	95.3775
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	266.50	268.67	269.00	265.92	273.67

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium fell to a four-week low as banks sold dollars for forward delivery, dealers said. The one-year dollar forward premium fell for the second straight session, erasing all the gains made last week.

 

Dealers said the forward dollars were most likely sold for the slew of initial public offerings lined up this year. The two-month forward premium fell the most to 2.62% from 2.83% Wednesday. However,  banks also purchased forward dollars for importers, who noted a sharp fall in crude oil prices and relatively lower dollar-rupee level in the spot market, which limited the fall in forward premiums. 

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.80%, sharply lower than Tuesday's close of 2.87%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 266.50 paise, against 273.67 paise Tuesday.

 

OUTLOOK 

On Thursday, the rupee is likely to track movements in crude oil prices amid developments in West Asia, dealers said. The domestic currency will also continue to take cues from movements in the dollar index, they said. Investors now await a series of US labour market reports for further clues on the US Federal Reserve's policy outlook, with ADP's July private payrolls data due later in the day.

 

Dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars, which will weigh on the rupee. They expect the RBI to intervene if the rupee comes under extreme pressure. 

 

Market participants will track potential foreign fund inflows from the measures announced by the RBI and the government in June to attract foreign capital, they said. Dealers see strong technical resistance for the Indian currency at 94.90 per dollar. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 94.80–95.25 against the dollar Thursday.

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India Rupee - World FX: Dlr index below 100 on hopes of US-Iran peace deal

 

	AT 1514 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3465	1.3471	1.3445	1.3448
EUR/USD	1.1541	1.1547	1.1527	1.1529
NZD/USD	0.5864	0.5896	0.5860	0.5893
AUD/USD	0.7046	0.7056	0.7040	0.7045
USD/JPY	157.7220	157.8750	157.3080	157.7020
USD/CAD	1.4065	1.4080	1.4064	1.4066
EUR/JPY	182.0330	182.1690	181.5376	181.8450
CHF/USD	1.2358	1.2386	1.2343	1.2357
EUR/CHF	0.9339	0.9343	0.9318	0.9325

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index remained below the 100 mark, coming under pressure as reports on an interim agreement between the US and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz drove crude oil prices sharply down, easing concern about inflation and the need for additional interest rate hikes.

 

Qatar's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Majed al-Ansari said efforts to secure a diplomatic resolution to the war are continuing. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US and Iran could reach a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz Wednesday. At 1500 IST, Brent crude oil for October delivery was at $80.33 a barrel, down from Tuesday's high of $86.33 a barrel.

 

Investors now await a series of US labour market reports for further clues on the US Federal Reserve's policy outlook, with ADP's July private payrolls' data due later in the day.

 

The Japanese yen was broadly steady against the dollar as the US and Japan signalled they remain prepared to intervene again in the currency market if necessary. The Japanese yen was at 157.77 a dollar. 

 

The euro and pound sterling were broadly steady at $1.15 and $1.35, respectively. The S&P Global eurozone Services Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 51.7 in July from 49.4 in June, the highest in five months and well above the initial estimate of 49.8. The Canadian dollar was also unchanged at 1.41 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: 1-yr premium falls to 4-wk low as banks sell fwd dlrs for FPIs

 

	AT 1356 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.1750	94.9200	94.8625	95.2475	95.3775
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	267.67	268.67	269.00	265.92	273.67

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium fell to a four-week low as banks sold dollars for forward delivery, dealers said. The one-year dollar forward premium fell for the second straight session, erasing all the gains made last week.

 

Dealers said the forward dollars were most likely sold for the slew of initial public offerings lined up this year. The two-month forward premium fell the most to 2.62% from 2.83% Tuesday. "Few big IPOs are coming this year, so they are booking it now," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

However, banks also purchased forward dollars for importers, who noted a sharp fall in crude oil prices and relatively lower dollar-rupee level in the spot market, which limited the fall in forward premiums. The rupee erased some gains against the dollar in the spot market on aggressive dollar demand from importers. 

 

A sharp fall in US Treasury yields also supported forward premiums. The 10-year US Treasury yield was 4.60% at 1430 IST, against 4.71% Tuesday. At 1430 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.80%, sharply lower than Tuesday's close of 2.87%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 267.67 paise, against 273.67 paise Tuesday. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Cuts most gains on importers' demand; RBI dlr sales speculated

 

	AT 1400 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.1600	94.9200	94.9200	95.2475	95.3775

 

MUMBAI – The rupee erased most of its gains after it rose sharply in early trade as crude oil prices fell to a three-week low. Importers' heavy dollar-buying weighed on the Indian unit in the latter part of the trading session Wednesday. "Importers are very active in the market. There is heavy buying pressure in the market as importers are buying at every dip every time the rupee (USD/INR) is going below 95," a dealer from a foreign bank said.

 

Dealers speculated that the RBI sold dollars at around 95.25 in the market to counter the aggressive dollar demand from importers. However, they said the intervention was very mild in nature, just to make sure the rupee did not breach 95.25 a dollar.  

 

The rupee was unchanged during most of the Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra's monetary policy statement at 1000 IST. Dealers said the tone of the governor was broadly neutral, in line with the market expectations. The Monetary Policy Committee unanimously kept the repo rates steady at 5.25% Wednesday. "It is quite possible that the rupee may strengthen going forward if the West Asia war de-escalates," Malhotra said in the press briefing followed by the monetary policy announcement, adding that the RBI will intervene only when there is an excessive volatility in the market.

 

The RBI governor said that the recent measures to attract foreign fund inflows will help channel expectations on the rupee exchange rate and have fortified India's external position and Balance of Payment. The RBI governor also noted that the flows through the Foreign Currency Non-Resident deposits have been robust and said that there is no proposal to extend the FCNR (B) window. 

The tension eased in West Asia and hopes of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz reignited, bringing crude below $80 per barrel, which kept the market sentiment positive. "Comments from RBI is not affecting the market as much as the opening of Hormuz is," a dealer from a foreign bank said. 

 

Brent crude oil inched up from its previous close but remained at $80 per barrel, easing pressure on all Asian currencies, including the rupee, following comments from Qatar officials and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that they are making progress in efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. At 1336 IST, Brent crude oil for October delivery was at $80.17 a barrel, down from Wednesday's high of $86.33 per barrel. 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 94.90 and 95.30 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 95.00 a dollar. (Janaki Venugopalan and Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Pares some gains on dlr buys; MPC decision in line with view

 

	AT 1051 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.0900	94.9200	94.9200	95.1100	95.3775

 

MUMBAI – The rupee erased some gains as banks bought dollars actively for importers, noting a relatively lower dollar-rupee levels and sharp fall in crude oil prices, dealers said. The Indian rupee showed little to no reaction to the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy announcement, as the outcome was in line with market expectations. The Monetary Policy Committee unanimously kept the repo rates unchanged at 5.25% and maintained a 'neutral' policy stance. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said growth was resilient and supported by strong demand, but it may be lower in 2026-27 (Apr-Mar).

 

"Most action happened in the morning itself. Post policy, so far there is not much reaction...but the rupee has slightly depreciated because of importers' active buying. The rupee touched 94 levels after long time, so importers just rushed in," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

The RBI governor said that intervention in the foreign exchange market was determined by the market behaviour. He also reiterated that the central bank does not target any particular levels, but intervenes just to curb market volatility. The Indian currency appreciated to 95.00 against the dollar Wednesday from 96.50 in July, driven by weeks of heavy market intervention by the Reserve Bank of India and foreign fund inflows.

He also said the rupee must not be de-synced with economic fundamentals. He noted that headline inflation has edged up above target, as expected. However, the realised inflation remained marginally lower than projections due to limited pass-through of cost pressures. The higher inflation is mostly on account of fuel and food, with little signs of generalisation of price pressures so far, he said. The panel expects the GDP to be at 6.7% while inflation is likely to be at 5% in the current financial year. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 94.80 and 95.30 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 94.90 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Jumps as crude oil falls sharply; MPC outcome eyed

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.0075	94.9200	94.9200	95.0500	95.3775

 

MUMBAI – The rupee jumped against the dollar in early trade as Brent crude fell below $80 a barrel for the first time in three weeks after the US reiterated that negotiations with Iran was under way and that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen soon. 

 

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the US and Iran could reach a deal to open the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday. Qatar's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Majed al-Ansari said efforts to secure a diplomatic resolution to the war were continuing. 

 

At 0900 IST, Brent crude oil for October delivery was $78.33 a barrel, down from Wednesday's high of $86.33. "Tension have eased in West Asia. Both countries have held truce in West Asia so far, and oil also fell, so the rupee went higher," a dealer at a priavte sector bank said. "But for the day, rupee may not rise further. MPC meeting outcome will decide further movement."

 

Banks expect importers to buy dollars, noting the sharp fall in crude oil prices, which may weigh on the Indian unit. For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 94.90 and 95.30 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 94.90 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Rise as oil falls to 3-wk low on hopes of peace deal

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies rose as oil prices fell for the third consecutive day to over three-week low on renewed hopes of diplomatic resolution in West Asia. Qatar said Tuesday that mediators were making progress in efforts to end the West Asia war. Brent crude fell more than 5?ter the comments from Qatar. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said early Tuesday that a deal with Iran to reopen the strait could come as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday. At 0820 IST, Brent crude oil for October delivery was at $78.20 a barrel against $79.36 Tuesday.

 

The Japanese yen rose marginally to 157.36 Wednesday following the coordinated yen-buying intervention by the US and Japan. Traders remained cautious of another intervention as the US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reiterated Tuesday that the country will do "whatever it takes" to support Japan's efforts to stabilise the yen. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the weakness of the yen has contributed to Japan's inflation problem and raised the risk of broader depreciation of Asian currencies.

 

The Taiwan dollar led the gains among Asian peers as it rose to 32.23 per dollar Wednesday from 32.39 Tuesday as pressure from rising oil prices eased and foreign inflows through Taiwan Semiconductor stocks supported the currency. The South Korean won followed the lead as it rose marginally to 1,421.23 per dollar Wednesday from 1429.26 Tuesday. 

 

The Philippine peso and Thai baht rose slightly to 60.87 and 33.18 per dollar Wednesday, respectively. While the Chinese yuan remained steady at 6.75 against the dollar. (Janaki Venugopalan)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Aug 5

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Wednesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll: 

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Public-sector bank	95.35	94.80
Private-sector bank	95.20	94.80
Private-sector bank	95.40	94.90
Private-sector bank	95.45	94.90
Private-sector bank	95.35	94.85
Brokerage firm	95.35	94.85
Brokerage firm	95.20	94.80

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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