Emkay Global Chief Economist Madhavi Arora on RBI Policy
This story was originally published at 11:10 IST on 5 August 2026
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MUMBAI - Madhavi Arora, chief economist, Emkay Global, said the following on the Reserve Bank of India's third bi-monthly monetary policy statement for 2026-27 (Apr-Mar) detailed Wednesday:
The policy tone is cautious albeit constructive, balancing uncertainties from the West Asia conflict, tighter global financial conditions, and El Nino risks against resilient domestic growth and robust FCNR+ (foreign currency non-resident) inflows. Despite Apr-Jun inflation undershooting the Reserve Bank of India's forecast, the Monetary Policy Committee has retained its emphasis on El Nino risks, while reiterating that any near-term price pressures would largely be supply driven, unless they broaden into second-round inflation effects for monetary policy to act. We expect core liquidity to peak in Jul-Sept before normalising in the second half of this financial year, as the FCNR+ window closes and currency leakage picks up. Accordingly, the RBI is more likely to rely on temporary liquidity absorption measures rather than tightening its policy stance. End
Compiled by Meera Nair
Filed by Deepshikha Bhardwaj
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