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Informist, Wednesday, Jul. 29, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil 

 

MUMBAI – The rupee rose sharply against the dollar and remained at an over two-week high for the third straight session, aided by aggressive dollar sales by the Reserve Bank of India, dealers said. Dollar sales by banks for foreign portfolio investors also supported the Indian currency. However, demand for dollars from importers pared some of the rupee's gains, they said. 

 

The rupee settled at 95.6475 a dollar Wednesday, up from 95.85 a dollar Tuesday. The rupee moved in a range of 31 paise during the day. Other Asian currencies also rose against the dollar, with the Indian rupee being the best performer, followed by the Thai Baht.

 

The RBI has been actively intervening in the spot market this week, which kept the rupee from falling below 96.00 a dollar. According to the average of estimates from eight banks, the RBI has sold nearly $8.5 billion in just eight days through Monday. "They intervene when things are positive globally to amplify the impact. That is when the RBI can easily move the rupee, without much hurdle," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

The RBI did not allow the Indian unit to fall on Wednesday despite a jump in crude oil prices due to escalation in the war in West Asia. The rupee hit a high of 95.49 a dollar Wednesday. Brent crude for September delivery rose 3% to $87.57 a barrel from $84.09 Tuesday following news of fresh strikes. 

 

Iran Wednesday launched a "surprise" ballistic missile strike on US forces in Jordan, ending a days-long pause in direct attacks between the two countries. The US and Saudi Arabia Wednesday launched attacks on Iran-aligned groups in Iraq. The attack came roughly a day after US President Donald Trump said the US had halted strikes on Iran.

Dealers said foreign banks sold dollars on behalf of foreign investors, likely to fund investments in Indian government bonds and domestic equities. Foreign portfolio investors bought INR 7.55 billion of shares on Tuesday. FPIs have invested $3.75 billion in Indian markets so far in July, the highest monthly inflows this calendar year.

 

Dollar inflows from foreign-currency non-resident (bank) deposits also boosted market sentiment. As of Sunday, banks have mobilised nearly $32 billion from the measures announced by the RBI to attract foreign capital inflows, up from $20.72 billion raised as of Jul. 18.

  

However, the rupee erased some gains as banks bought dollars for oil marketing companies and other importers, weighing on the rupee. Importers bid aggressively during the fixing window because of the month-end payment obligation. 

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.6475	95.7200	95.4925	95.7975	95.8525
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	274.67	268.57	275.73	268.21	272.45

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium rose sharply, erasing the losses booked in early trade as banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of oil marketing companies and other importers, who feared a further rise in crude oil prices after the US and Iran resumed strikes Thursday, they said.

 

Dollar-rupee forward premiums declined in early trade as the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said he was committed to fighting inflation but offered little detail on what steps he would take to keep inflation under target.

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.87%, sharply up from Wednesday's close of 2.83%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 274.67 paise, against 272.45 paise Wednesday. 

 

OUTLOOK

On Friday, the rupee is likely to track crude oil prices amid evolving developments in West Asia, dealers said. The domestic currency will also continue to take cues from movements in the dollar index, they said. Traders remain cautious ahead of the Bank of Japan's policy meeting decision due Friday. The BoJ is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, while signalling that additional rate hikes remain possible to help curb the yen's weakness. 

 

Dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars, which will weigh on the rupee. They also expect the RBI to intervene if the rupee comes under extreme pressure. "It all depends on the RBI on where the rupee goes. They have been in the driving seat for a week. So it's all on them now," a dealer at a private sector bank said.

 

Market participants will also track potential foreign fund inflows from the measures announced by the RBI and the government in June to attract foreign capital, they said. Dealers see strong technical support for the Indian currency at 95.75 per dollar. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 95.55–95.90 against the dollar Friday.

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India Rupee - World FX: Dlr recovers as US, Iran resume attacks, oil rises

 

	AT 1424 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3357	1.3375	1.3333	1.3362
EUR/USD	1.1450	1.1475	1.1434	1.1458
NZD/USD	0.5818	0.5820	0.5792	0.5787
AUD/USD	0.6960	0.6966	0.6947	0.6948
USD/JPY	163.6400	163.7400	163.2140	163.4110
USD/CAD	1.4056	1.4067	1.4032	1.4041
EUR/JPY	187.3790	187.4478	187.1590	187.2800
CHF/USD	1.2256	1.2298	1.2231	1.2259
EUR/CHF	0.9342	0.9351	0.9328	0.9326

 

India Rupee - World FX: Dlr recovers as US, Iran resume attacks, oil rises

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index recovered from a low of 100.76 hit Thursday as the US and Iran resumed attacks once again, jeopardising the efforts to reach a peace deal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Investors shifted to safe-haven assets after recent escalation, giving strength to dollar. The dollar index was at 100.98, up from 100.80 Wednesday. 

 

The dollar index fell slightly in early trade as Federal Open Meeting Committee kept the interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive policy meeting, although three officials dissented in favour of higher rates as the central bank wrestled with how to deal with persistently high inflation. 

 

The US military launched new strikes on Iran in response to Iranian strikes on US bases in Jordan, ending a week-long pause in fighting, which sent crude oil prices higher. At 1400 IST, Brent crude prices for September delivery rose nearly 7% to $91.93 per barrel, up from Wednesday's low of $86.35.

 

The euro fell 0.2% to $1.144 as investors weighed stronger-than-expected eurozone economic data against rising geopolitical tensions. Robust GDP growth across the bloc and firmer inflation readings in Germany and Spain reinforced expectations that the European Central Bank could deliver a second rate hike this year. 

 

The pound sterling fell marginally to $1.33 as investors awaited the Bank of England's policy decision later in the day. While the Bank of England is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, markets will closely watch the voting and any guidance on the future policy path. 

 

The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 163.65 a dollar due to uncertainity over the war in West Asia. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged on Friday while signalling that additional rate hikes remain possible to help curb the yen's weakness. 

 

The Swiss franc and Canadian dollar fell 0.3% and 0.1%, respectively, Thursday.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Premiums up as importers buy fwd dlrs after oil crosses $90/bbl

 

	AT 1314 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.7000	95.5925	95.5650	95.7525	95.6475
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	274.77	268.57	275.73	268.21	272.45

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar rupee forward premium erased losses booked in early trade and rose sharply as banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of oil marketing companies and other importers, who feared further rise in crude oil prices after the US and Iran resumed strikes Thursday, they said.

 

Brent crude oil for September delivery rose 7% to $92.48 a barrel from Wednesday's low of $86.35. At this price, crude oil is 28% higher than pre-war levels. Crude reacted immediately after the US launched attacks on Iran in retaliation to strikes on US bases in Jordan. US President Donald Trump told media, "We're going to be hitting them very hard, because it's our turn to hit them." The exchange of attacks ended a pause in direct fighting between the US and Iran.

 

"We are seeing agressive buying now, mostly from oil importers only. The RBI is not selling in forwards nowadays when it intervenes in spot market," a dealer at a foreign bank said. 

 

Dollar-rupee forward premiums declined in early trade as the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said he was committed to fight ‌inflation but offered little detail on what steps he would take to keep inflation under target.

 

At 1313 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.87%, sharply higher than Wednesday's close of 2.83%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 274.77 paise, against 272.45 paise Wednesday. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Edges down as importers buy dlrs, oil rises on escalation in war

 

	AT 1200 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.7475	95.5925	95.5650	95.7525	95.6475

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell slightly against the dollar after opening steady Thursday as banks bought dollars for importers, who feared further rise in crude oil prices amid renewed escalation in the war in West Asia, dealers said. Importers' aggressive demand was also due to their month-end payment obligations, they said. 

"Crude keeps rising because of every flare-up between the US and Iran, and that has dampened market sentiment. In addition to that, month-end-led closing payments also put pressure," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

The US military launched new strikes on Iran in response to Iranian strikes on US bases in Jordan, ending a week-long pause in fighting. After tumbling last week, oil prices reversed direction and crossed $90 per barrel Wednesday. Brent crude prices for September delivery rose nearly 7% to $92.77 per barrel, up from Wednesday's low of $86.35. 

 

A few dealers speculated that the Reserve Bank of India's mild intervention kept the rupee from falling sharply against the dollar. "There's selling, but not material. They are just trying to keep the rupee in range," a dealer at another private sector bank said.  

 

The dollar index rose toward 101 on Thursday, but held most of the decline from the previous session as the US Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged despite risk of higher inflation. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said he was committed to bringing down inflation, but did not give the market any steps it would take to achieve inflation target, which left the market anxious. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in the range of 95.50-95.90 per dollar. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 95.80 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Jul 30

 

MUMBAI – At 1046 IST, the rupee was at 95.6600 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 95.5925 a dollar, against the previous close of 95.6475. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and a brokerage:

 

Participant	S2	S1	R1	R2
Public-sector bank	95.80	95.70	95.50	95.40
Private-sector bank	95.90	95.70	95.50	95.40
Private-sector bank	95.90	95.80	95.60	95.50
Private-sector bank	95.90	95.82	95.55	95.40
Foreign bank	95.90	95.75	95.40	95.30
Brokerage firm	96.85	95.75	95.32	95.10

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Steady as dollar weakness offsets higher crude oil prices

 

	AT 0930  IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.6225	95.5925	95.5650	95.6475	95.6475

 

MUMBAI – The rupee remained steady in early trade Thursday as the dollar index retreated slightly, which offset the impact of higher crude oil prices amid escaltion in the West Asia war. The dollar index fell after the US Federal Open Market Committee Wednesday left its benchmark interest rate unchanged for a fifth consecutive policy meeting, keeping the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75%.

 

The dollar index retreated and traded below 101 Thursday. At 0900 IST, the index was at 100.93, down from Wednesday's high 101.49. Despite the initial dollar sell-off, the market is concerned whether its weakness will sustain, dealers said 

 

A rise in crude oil prices continued to weigh on the rupee. Brent crude oil for September delivery was at $89.20 a barrel, up from Wednesday's low of $86.35 a barrel. The US military conducted air strikes on Iran early Thursday after Tehran attacked US bases in Jordan, ending the week-long truce between warring nations. 

 

Dealers expect banks to buy dollars for importers actively amid month-end payment obligation and fear of further rise in crude prices, which will put pressure on the Indian unit during the day. Foreign fund inflows in foreign currency non-resident (bank) deposits and government bonds will boost the rupee, they said. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 95.40 and 95.80 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 95.55 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Jul 30

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Thursday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll: 

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Private-sector bank	95.95	95.55
Private-sector bank	95.90	95.60
Private-sector bank	95.95	95.45
Foreign bank	95.90	95.40
Foreign bank	95.90	95.50
Brokerage firm	95.85	95.52

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Down as crude rises on West Asia war escalation

 

MUMBAI – Asian currencies fell against the dollar Thursday as crude oil prices rose sharply after the US and Iran resumed attacks in West Asia, jeopardising efforts to reach a peace deal to end the war. The US military conducted air strikes on Iran after Tehran attacked US bases in Jordan Wednesday, Axios reported Thursday. 

 

Brent crude oil for September delivery was at $89.20 a barrel, up from Wednesday's low of $86.35 a barrel. US President Donald Trump told the media on Thursday, "It's time, and we're going to be hitting them (Iran) very hard."

 

However, the dollar index edged down after the US Federal Open Market Committee left its benchmark interest rate unchanged for a fifth consecutive policy meeting, keeping the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75%, which may be slightly positive for the Indian unit. At 0800 IST, the dollar index was 100.93, down from Wednesday's high of 101.49.

 

The South Korean won fell 0.3% to 1444.38 a dollar Thursday. The Indonesian rupiah and Taiwan dollar fell 0.2% Thursday. 

 

The Philippine peso and Thai baht were down marginally on Thursday. The Chinese yuan also fell marginally by 0.1% to 6.75 per dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 95.6800

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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