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Informist, Wednesday, Jul. 29, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil 

 

MUMBAI – The rupee rose sharply against the dollar and remained at an over two-week high for the third straight session, aided by aggressive dollar sales by the Reserve Bank of India, dealers said. Dollar sales by banks for foreign portfolio investors also supported the Indian currency. However, demand for dollars from importers pared some of the rupee's gains, they said. 

 

The rupee settled at 95.6475 a dollar Wednesday, up from 95.85 a dollar Tuesday. The rupee moved in a range of 31 paise during the day. Other Asian currencies also rose against the dollar, with the Indian rupee being the best performer, followed by the Thai Baht.

 

The RBI has been actively intervening in the spot market this week, which kept the rupee from falling below 96.00 a dollar. According to the average of estimates from eight banks, the RBI has sold nearly $8.5 billion in just eight days through Monday. "They intervene when things are positive globally to amplify the impact. That is when the RBI can easily move the rupee, without much hurdle," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

The RBI did not allow the Indian unit to fall on Wednesday despite a jump in crude oil prices due to escalation in the war in West Asia. The rupee hit a high of 95.49 a dollar Wednesday. Brent crude for September delivery rose 3% to $87.57 a barrel from $84.09 Tuesday following news of fresh strikes. 

 

Iran Wednesday launched a "surprise" ballistic missile strike on US forces in Jordan, ending a days-long pause in direct attacks between the two countries. The US and Saudi Arabia Wednesday launched attacks on Iran-aligned groups in Iraq. The attack came roughly a day after US President Donald Trump said the US had halted strikes on Iran.

Dealers said foreign banks sold dollars on behalf of foreign investors, likely to fund investments in Indian government bonds and domestic equities. Foreign portfolio investors bought INR 7.55 billion of shares on Tuesday. FPIs have invested $3.75 billion in Indian markets so far in July, the highest monthly inflows this calendar year.

 

Dollar inflows from foreign-currency non-resident (bank) deposits also boosted market sentiment. As of Sunday, banks have mobilised nearly $32 billion from the measures announced by the RBI to attract foreign capital inflows, up from $20.72 billion raised as of Jul. 18.

  

However, the rupee erased some gains as banks bought dollars for oil marketing companies and other importers, weighing on the rupee. Importers bid aggressively during the fixing window because of the month-end payment obligation. 

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.6475	95.7200	95.4925	95.7975	95.8525
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	272.45	273.45	274.10	270.43	269.14

 

FORWARDS 

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium rose as banks bought forward dollars for importers, who feared a further rise in crude oil prices amid escalation in the war in West Asia. The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium erased losses booked in the last two trading sessions and hit a high of 274.10 paise Wednesday.

 

Some dealers speculated that the RBI sold forward dollars mildly for near-term maturities, which limited the rise of forward premiums. The forward premiums for near-term till 6 months fell slightly Wednesday. 

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.83%, up from 2.81% on Tuesday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 272.45 paise, against 269.14 paise Tuesday.

 

OUTLOOK 

On Thursday, the rupee is likely to track crude oil prices amid evolving developments in West Asia, dealers said. The domestic currency will also take cues from movement in the dollar index as the market awaits the Federal Open Meeting Committee's decision on interest rates due late Wednesday, which is expected to provide clearer direction for the dollar index, they said. 

 

Investors expect the committee to keep rates unchanged and emphasise that inflation risks remain high. This could keep US yields and the dollar supported, which in turn will weigh on the Indian currency. Dealers said that if FOMC signals a rate hike, the rupee could fall to 95.95 a dollar Thursday. 

 

Dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars aggressively to meet their month-end payment obligations, which will weigh on the rupee. However, they also expect the RBI to intervene if the rupee comes under extreme pressure.  

 

Market participants will also track potential foreign fund inflows from the measures announced by the RBI and the government in June to attract foreign capital, they said. 

 

Dealers see strong technical resistance for the Indian currency at 95.45 per dollar. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 95.45–95.85 against the dollar Thursday.

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India Rupee: Premiums up as importers buy fwd dollars amid rise in crude

 

	AT 1330 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.5925	95.7200	95.4925	95.7975	95.8525
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	274.00	273.45	274.10	270.43	269.14

 

MUMBAI – Dollar-rupee forward premiums rose across most tenures as banks bought forward dollars for importers, who feared a further rise in crude oil prices amid escalation in the West Asia war after a recent flare-up between the US and Iran. The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium erased losses booked in last two trading sessions and hit a high of 273.45 paise Wednesday.

 

The Reserve Bank of India has been actively selling dollars in the spot market, preventing the local unit from falling to 95.80 a dollar. A few dealers speculate that the RBI likely sold forward dollars mildly for near-term maturities. 

 

A slight fall in US Treasury yields also supported forward premiums. The 10-year US Treasury yield was 4.61% at 1330 IST, against 4.62% Tuesday.   

 

At 1330 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.85%, higher than Tuesday's close of 2.81%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 274.00 paise, against 269.14 paise Tuesday. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Rises further on RBI intervention; importers' dlr demand weighs

 

	AT 1300 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.5925	95.7200	95.5900	95.7975	95.8525

 

MUMBAI – The rupee gained further against the dollar as mid-sized public sector banks sold dollars for the Reserve Bank of India, protecting the Indian unit against importers' demand for dollars, dealers said. The RBI sold dollars at multiple levels during the day, keeping the rupee below 95.80 a dollar.

 

"The RBI is making sure 95.80 is protected. We could see aggressive selling around 95.77 (a dollar) and 95.75," a dealer at a foreign bank said. As per estimates from eight banks, the RBI has sold nearly $8.5 billion in just eight days till Monday. The RBI's active intervention has kept the dollar-rupee below 96.00 this week. They said the central bank will not allow the rupee to breach 96.00 per dollar, unless the US and Iran return to war and crude jumps above $100 a barrel. 

 

However, banks also bought dollars for oil marketing companies and other importers, which put pressure on the rupee. "There was a lot of bidding during the fixing window because of the month-end payments, but that was absorbed by selling. That's why we saw the rupee moving sideways," the dealer said.

 

Dealers said foreign banks sold dollars for foreign fund inflows, likely for investing in Indian government bonds and domestic equities. Foreign portfolio investors bought INR 7.55 billion of shares on Tuesday. FPIs have invested $3.75 billion in Indian markets so far in July, the highest inflows seen this calendar year. 

 

A rise in crude oil prices also put pressure on the Indian unit, they said. Brent crude for September delivery jumped 3% to $87.19 a barrel from $84.09 Tuesday following news of an intercepted strike by Iran on US forces in Jordan.

 

Market participants expect demand for the greenback during the European trading session to weigh on the Indian unit. The greenback's safe haven status may take the spotlight due to uncertainty in the West Asia war and as investors stay cautious ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee's decision on interest rates. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 95.50 and 95.80 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 95.55 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Jul 29

 

MUMBAI – At 1113 IST, the rupee was at 95.6875 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 95.7200 a dollar, against the previous close of 95.8525. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and a brokerage:

 

Participant	S2	S1	R1	R2
Public-sector bank	96.00	95.90	95.60	95.50
Private-sector bank	96.05	95.95	95.65	95.45
Private-sector bank	96.00	95.90	95.50	95.40
Foreign bank	95.90	95.80	95.50	95.40
Foreign bank	96.10	95.90	95.60	95.50
Brokerage firm	96.00	95.90	95.65	95.45

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Up as dealers speculate RBI's dlr sales; rise in crude weighs

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.7750	95.7200	95.7000	95.7925	95.8525

 

MUMBAI – The rupee rose slightly against the dollar Wednesday as dealers speculated public sector banks' dollar sales for the Reserve Bank of India, dealers said. The rupee opened 13 paise higher from its previous close at 95.72 a dollar. The RBI was seen selling dollars around 95.80 a dollar, they said. 

 

A few dealers said volumes in the market were very low and not enough to move the market, which kept the rupee range-bound after opening. "It is very surprising that the rupee has not reacted to crude. In fact, most of the market, including equities, have not discounted crude's rise. Offshore, too, the rupee was down, and volume was not really much," a dealer at a public sector bank said.

 

However, the market remains anxious as crude oil prices rose amid escalation in the West Asia war. Iran Wednesday launched a "surprise" ballistic missile strike on US forces in Jordan, ending a days-long pause in direct attacks between the two countries. Brent crude from September delivery jumped 3% to $87.57 a barrel from $84.09 Tuesday following news of the intercepted strike. 

 

Dealers expect banks to buy dollar aggressively for importers, which is likely to weigh on the Indian unit later in the day. Importers' dollar demand will be high as they have to meet their month-end payment obligations. "Once fixing starts, we will come to know the exact level," a dealer at another public sector bank said. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 95.50 and 95.95 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 95.70 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most rise, Taiwan dollar falls on tech sell-off

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies were up Wednesday on strong economic growth outlook and on hopes of peace between the US and Iran as the talks continued.  

 

The Japanese yen was largely flat at 163.7 against the dollar Wednesday as investors await the Japanese central bank's monetary policy meeting, which starts Thursday, and Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda's speech Friday after the meeting. The yen remained under pressure despite earlier intervention due to rising oil prices, concerns over Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's fiscal policies, and the current wide interest rate differential with the US.

 

The South Korean won rose for the second consecutive day Wednesday and was at 1,451.68 per dollar, up from 1,453.72 Tuesday. The Malaysian ringgit rose slightly and traded at 4.0883 per dollar after comments by Bank Negara Malaysia Governor Datuk Seri Abdul Rasheed Ghaffour that despite the energy supply shock, Malaysia's economy remains well on track to grow by 4% to 5% in 2026, likely towards the upper end of the range, with manageable inflation. The Singapore dollar remained steady at 1.2922 per dollar Wednesday. 

 

The Indonesian rupiah rose to 18,105 per dollar Wednesday from 18,083 Tuesday as Bank Indonesia said that it is strengthening efforts to stabilise the rupiah to contain inflation and support economic growth amid rising global uncertainty. The statement from Bank Indonesia's head of monetary management, Erwin Gunawan Hutapea, came two days after the unexpected resignation of Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo. 

 

The Thai baht rose to 33.50 per dollar Wednesday from 33.55 Tuesday as crude oil prices subdued earlier this week. The Philippino peso rose to 61.49 per dollar Wednesday. Meanwhile, the Taiwanese dollar fell against the dollar Wednesday as trader sentiment went against the currency amid the sell-off in semiconductor stocks. The Chinese yuan fell to 6.77 per dollar Wednesday from 6.76 Tuesday. (Janaki Venugopalan) 

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Jul 29

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Wednesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll: 

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Private-sector bank	95.95	95.60
Private-sector bank	95.80	95.35
Private-sector bank	95.95	95.55
Foreign bank	95.90	95.60
Foreign bank	95.95	95.50
Brokerage firm	95.91	95.44

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 95.6475

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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