India Rupee Review
Steady; RBI dollar sales offsets crude surge above $100/barrel
This story was originally published at 16:38 IST on 24 July 2026
Register to read our real-time news.Informist, Friday, Jul. 24, 2026
By Divya Moolayattil
MUMBAI – The rupee was steady Friday as the Reserve Bank of India stood as a shield against surging crude oil prices and escalating geopolitical tensions in the West Asia. However, the rupee erased most gains during the day as importers bought dollars actively after crude oil crossed $100 a barrel, they said.
"There will be a two-day gap window after Friday and if there's back-to-back negative news, things will be out of control. So it was expected that the RBI would intervene aggressively to give cushion due to the volatility during weekend," a dealer at a public sector bank. Dealers estimate the RBI sold over $1.5 billion in the spot market Friday.
The rupee moved in a wide range of 32 paise throughout the day and settled at 96.5625 a dollar, nearly unchanged from 96.5725 per dollar Thursday. The market was volatile Friday due to high dollar-buying pressure, which was countered by RBI's dollar sales. Most Asian currencies fell against the dollar Friday, with the Indonesian rupiah being the worst performer. Bucking the trend, the South Korean won jumped by 0.8% from its previous close.
The rupee rose in early trade after the RBI intervened in the non-deliverable forwards market as the local unit was inching towards a record low of 96.96 a dollar, dealers said. The rupee touched a low of 96.95 a dollar in one-month non-deliverable forwards outright.
The RBI was active in the spot market also and was selling dollars at multiple levels, they said. Most dealers had expected the rupee to open sharply lower at 96.80 a dollar as crude oil prices crossed $100 a barrel overnight but RBI's aggressive dollar sales caught the market off guard.
The rupee hit a high of 96.3375 a dollar during the day on RBI's intervention but erased most of the gains as banks bought dollars heavily for importers, especially oil marketing companies, who feared further rise in crude oil prices. Dealers said importers were buying on every dip in the dollar-rupee level.
Brent crude retreated from the day's high of $101.19 a barrel, which gave some relief to the local unit during the day. However, crude oil remained over 35% higher than the pre-war levels. The West Asia war has extended from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea, which is likely to stifle the already disrupted flow of oil in the global market. At 1530 IST, Brent crude for September delivery was at $97.70 a barrel, down from $100.69 Thursday. Crude oil hit a high of $101.2 a barrel Friday.
The dollar index stayed firm above 101, putting further pressure on the rupee. At 1530 IST, the index was 101.34, from 101.44 Thursday.
| AT 1530 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 96.5625 | 96.6300 | 96.3375 | 96.6700 | 96.5725 |
| 1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) | 281.67 | 287.59 | 290.09 | 280.74 | 286.00 |
FORWARDS
Dollar-rupee forward premiums fell sharply across tenures Friday after rising for five straight days as dealers speculated that the Reserve Bank of India sold dollars for forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions and avert pushing out rupee liquidity, dealers said. The RBI likely sold forward dollars for maturity in six months to a year, they said.
Considering spot dollar sales drain out rupee liquidity from the banking system, the RBI conducts buy-sell swaps to replenish liquidity. A buy-sell swap entails buying dollars for immediate delivery and entering into a contract to sell these at a future date, thereby postponing the drain on systemic liquidity.
However, the fall in premium was limited due to a decline in the 10-year US treasury yield to 4.69% at 1530 IST from 4.71% on Thursday. At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar rupee forward premium was 2.92%, down from 2.96% Thursday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 281.67 paise, against 286.00 paise at close Thursday.
OUTLOOK
Monday, the rupee will take cues from the movement in crude oil prices amid developments in the war in West Asia. A sharp rise in Brent crude to $100 per barrel has increased concern about India's import bill and inflation outlook.
The domestic currency will also continue to take cues from movement in the dollar index, dealers said. Traders remain cautious ahead of the US Federal Open Market Committee's meeting Monday and Tuesday, which is expected to provide clearer direction for the dollar index.
They will also keep a close watch on RBI's intervention strategy, which will decide the direction of the local unit. Market participants expect the RBI to step in through dollar sales if the rupee falls under extreme pressure, as it has been doing. Dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars amid the uncertainty stemming from the war in West Asia, exerting pressure on the Indian currency.
Market participants will also track potential foreign fund inflows from the measures announced by the RBI and the government in June to attract foreign capital, they said. Dealers see strong technical support for the Indian currency at 96.70 per dollar. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 96.35-96.70 against the dollar Monday.
India Rupee - World FX: Dlr index firm above 101; mkt eyes Fed policy meet
| AT 1400 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS | |
| GBP/USD | 1.3325 | 1.3344 | 1.3307 | 1.3311 |
| EUR/USD | 1.1385 | 1.1401 | 1.1376 | 1.1375 |
| NZD/USD | 0.5787 | 0.5791 | 0.5771 | 0.5771 |
| AUD/USD | 0.6987 | 0.6990 | 0.6966 | 0.6967 |
| USD/JPY | 163.7680 | 163.9350 | 163.6550 | 163.7280 |
| USD/CAD | 1.4079 | 1.4088 | 1.4066 | 1.4079 |
| EUR/JPY | 186.4420 | 186.6256 | 186.3640 | 186.3300 |
| CHF/USD | 1.2249 | 1.2265 | 1.2230 | 1.2233 |
| EUR/CHF | 0.9293 | 0.9303 | 0.9292 | 0.9284 |
MUMBAI – The dollar index remained firm above 101 Friday. The index retreated from Thursday's high of 101.54 as the market was cautious ahead of Monday's Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which is expected to provide clearer direction for the dollar index. The index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six currencies, was 101.34 at 1400 IST from 101.44 Thursday.
Brent crude oil breached the $100 per barrel mark as escalation in West Asia war and the blockades of shipping in the Red Sea raised fears of more energy supply disruptions. US President Donald Trump vowed a "major military punishment" against Iran and Yemen's Houthis after they struck two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, extending the war to another major shipping route. At 1400 IST, Brent crude oil prices for September delivery were $98.13 a barrel, down from $100.69 Thursday.
The euro was steady against the dollar Friday as the ECB kept benchmark deposit rate unchanged at 2.25% on Thursday. However, rising energy costs and President Christine Lagarde's comments about future policy moves raised market expectations of a potential hike in September. The pound sterling fell sharply by 0.3% to $1.33 Friday.
The Japanese yen fell slightly at 163.79 a dollar as investors remained wary of a possible currency intervention by Japanese authorities after they warned to act if they saw excessive volatility in the currency. The US Treasury Department Thursday said excess volatility in the yen was undesirable following the currency's persisting weakness despite the narrowing of US-Japan interest rate differentials. The Treasury also called for further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, warning that inflation has strained households' purchasing power even as nominal wages rose notably.
The Candian dollar was broadly steady against the dollar Friday. The Swiss franc and Swedish Krona were up marginally. (Divya Moolayattil)
India Rupee: Rises as RBI sells dollars, crude oil retreats from $101/bbl
| AT 1430 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 96.5250 | 96.6300 | 96.33750 | 96.6700 | 96.5725 |
MUMBAI – The rupee rose sharply during the day after strong intervention from the Reserve Bank of India, which led to an appreciation of around 20 paise to 96.35 a dollar. The rupee was trading at 96.53 a dollar for the major part of the day. Dealers said the central bank sold dollars in the spot market and subsequently forward dollars for maturity of one year and above. In early trade, the RBI had sold dollars in the offshore market as well.
Dealers noted that nationalised banks have sold over $1.5 billion for the RBI so far in the spot market. "We are seeing some intervention in the forward market as well, in the one-year and one-year six-month tenure," a dealer from a foreign bank said.
Brent crude retreated from the day's high of $101.19 a barrel, though it remained over 35% higher from the pre-war level as the intensifying war in West Asia fuelled fears of further energy supply disruptions. "Due to the persistent risk of oil prices going up, the RBI would try to hold the currency level below 97 (a dollar)," a dealer said. At 1432 IST, Brent crude oil for September delivery fell over 3% to $97.68 per barrel.
The market slowed down to watch for further developments following the RBI's intervention as dealers noted there were lower foreign inflows and subdued dollar-buying from oil importers through banks. For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 96.45 and 96.60 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 96.45 a dollar. (Janaki Venugopalan)
India Rupee: Premiums down sharply as mkt speculates RBI sold fwd dollars
| AT 1330 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 96.5100 | 96.6300 | 96.4900 | 96.6700 | 96.5725 |
| 1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) | 282.67 | 287.59 | 290.09 | 280.82 | 286.00 |
MUMBAI – Dollar-rupee forward premiums fell sharply across tenures Friday after rising for five straight days as dealers speculated that the Reserve Bank of India sold dollars for forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions and avert pushing out rupee liquidity, dealers said. The RBI likely sold forward dollars for maturity in six months to a year, they said. The one-year dollar forward premium had closed at a one-month high of 2.96% or 286.00 paise on Thursday.
"RBI is hitting both spot and forward markets now. They were heavily selling in spot at multiple levels and bought rupee (USD/INR) sharply down," a dealer at a foreign bank said.
The rupee rose to a high of 96.3475 a dollar after opening lower at 96.6300 Friday. The Indian unit erased losses as the RBI likely intervened through dollar sales, dealers said.
Considering spot dollar sales drain out rupee liquidity from the banking system, the RBI conducts buy-sell swaps to replenish liquidity. A buy-sell swap entails buying dollars for immediate delivery and entering into a contract to sell these at a future date, thereby postponing the drain on systemic liquidity.
However, the fall in premium was limited due to a decline in the 10-year US treasury yield to 4.70% at 1330 IST from 4.71% on Thursday. At 1340 IST, the one-year exact period dollar rupee forward premium was 2.92%, down from 2.96% Thursday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 282.67 paise, against 286.00 paise at close Thursday. (Divya Moolayattil)
India Rupee: Erases losses on RBI intervention; jump in crude oil price drags
| AT 1231 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 96.5100 | 96.6300 | 96.4900 | 96.6700 | 96.5725 |
MUMBAI – The rupee erased losses against the dollar and inched up as the Reserve Bank of India continued to sell the greenback through state-owned banks, dealers said. The rupee was moving in a thin range after the central bank came in heavily in the morning and moved the rupee by around 30 paise, they said. "After releasing a slew of measures in June, the RBI is not left with many options. They had to intervene to keep the unit(USD/INR) from touching a record low," a dealer at a private sector bank said.
Banks bought dollars for importers, which weighed on the local unit. However, importers' dollar demand was not very aggressive despite the sharp jump in crude oil prices after the war expanded and Iranian-backed Houthis blocked ships in the Red Sea. "They are not rushing in now and keeping a close watch on the RBI strategy before taking further steps," the dealer said.
Brent crude oil prices crossed $101 a barrel Friday, for the first time since May 22, which pushed the rupee towards a record low in non-deliverable forwards before spot market opened Friday. Brent crude has gained about $13 a barrel over the past week after a series of sharp increases. At 1225 IST, Brent crude for September delivery was at $99.59, down from $100.69 Thursday. Brent crude is 38% higher than the pre-war levels. US President Donald Trump Thursday threatened Iran and the Houthis of "a massive attack" that would be "bigger than ever before" if the Houthis launched more attacks on Saudi Arabia vessels in the Red Sea.
For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 96.45 and 96.60 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 96.45 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)
India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Jul 24
MUMBAI – At 1115 IST, the rupee was at 96.4850 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 96.6300 a dollar, against the previous close of 96.5725. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and a brokerage:
| Participant | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 |
| Public-sector bank | 96.80 | 96.65 | 96.45 | 96.25 |
| Private-sector bank | 96.70 | 96.60 | 96.40 | 96.30 |
| Private-sector bank | 96.75 | 96.65 | 96.40 | 96.20 |
| Foreign bank | 96.80 | 96.60 | 96.45 | 96.35 |
| Brokerage firm | 96.80 | 96.70 | 96.40 | 96.30 |
| Brokerage firm | 96.75 | 96.65 | 96.45 | 96.35 |
(Divya Moolayattil)
India Rupee - Asia FX: Most fall on jump in oil over $100/bbl as war expands
MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies fell Friday as crude oil prices surged for the sixth consecutive day to over $100 per barrel, the highest since May 22, as escalation in the West Asia war and blockade in the Red Sea raised fears of more energy supply disruptions.
The Japanese yen continued to weaken against the dollar and was marginally lower at 163.83 per dollar Friday from 163.73 Thursday as Japanese finance minister Satsuki Katayama said the Japanese government would take bold steps to counter moves in the currency market decisively as needed, and that the US Treasury report issued overnight underscored a shared view that excessive currency moves were undesirable. Traders remained wary of possible currency intervention by Japanese authorities.
The US Treasury Department late Thursday called for further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, warning that inflation had strained households' purchasing power even as nominal wages rose notably. The treasury also noted that excess volatility in the yen was undesirable following the currency's persisting weakness despite the narrowing of US-Japan interest rate differentials.
The South Korean won edged up for the third consecutive day following a strong GDP growth print for the second quarter, driven by robust semiconductor exports and renewed foreign inflows. The won rose 0.67% to 1,464.18 per dollar Friday from 1474.13 Thursday.
The Malaysian ringgit fell 0.12% due to rising oil prices and continued escalation in West Asia. The country raised $1.5 billion in its first dollar bond sale in five years, in a move to strengthen funding as the country grapples with a fuel subsidy bill that's expected to more than double from its target due to the war in West Asia. The ringgit traded at 4.091 per dollar Friday, against 4.0860 Thursday.
The Taiwan dollar remained steady at 32.37 per dollar Friday as selling pressure from foreign investors eased. The Thai baht and Philippine peso remained steady at 33.79 and 61.81 per dollar, respectively. The Chinese yuan fell 0.12% to 6.78 per dollar Friday from 6.77 Thursday. (Janaki Venugopalan)
India Rupee: Tad up on RBI's intervention; crude at over $100/bbl weighs
| AT 0930 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 96.5300 | 96.6300 | 96.4975 | 96.6700 | 96.5725 |
MUMBAI – The rupee rose slightly against the dollar as the Reserve Bank of India intervened in non-deliverable forwards market and sold dollars heavily as the rupee was inching towards a record low of 96.96 a dollar, dealers said. "The rupee was trading at 96.80 in NDF before open, the RBI sold heavily and moved the rupee by around 30 paise," a dealer at a public sector bank said.
The RBI was active in the spot market also and was selling dollars at multiple levels, they said. Most dealers had expected the rupee to open sharply lower at 96.80 a dollar as crude oil prices crossed $100 a barrel overnight, but RBI's heavy dollar sales caught the market off guard. They had expected that the RBI would only sell dollars mildly and let market forces determine the course of the rupee to an extent. "The rupee will be range-bound for most of the day, as RBI gave a signal that they are not comfortable having rupee (USD/INR)above 96.60," the dealer said.
Dealers said that even as the RBI continues to support, fundamentals will drive the local unit. Crude oil prices crossed $100 a barrel for the first time since May 22. The West Asia war extended from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea, which is likely to stifle the already disrupted flow of oil in the global market. At 0900 IST, Brent crude for September delivery was at $100.65, down from $100.69 Thursday. Brent crude is 38% higher than its pre-war levels.
Dealers expect banks to buy dollars on behalf of importers, as the war expands, with both sides showing no signs of backing down, which will weigh on the Indian unit. They also expect month-end demand for dollars from importers to hit the rupee.
For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 96.45 and 96.65 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 96.45 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)
India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Jul 24
MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Friday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:
| PARTICIPANT | SUPPORT | RESISTANCE |
| Public-sector bank | 97.00 | 96.60 |
| Private-sector bank | 97.15 | 96.65 |
| Private-sector bank | 96.96 | 96.50 |
| Private-sector bank | 97.00 | 96.60 |
| Foreign bank | 96.99 | 96.65 |
| Brokerage firm | 97.00 | 96.50 |
| Brokerage firm | 97.15 | 96.65 |
(Divya Moolayattil)
End
US$1 = INR 96.5625
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury
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