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Informist, Friday, Jul. 17, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil

 

MUMBAI – The rupee snapped a four-day losing streak and inched up against the dollar as the Reserve Bank of India stepped in and sold dollars through public sector banks. However, gains were limited as crude oil prices remained higher and importers bought dollars. 

 

"There was intervention from the RBI at multiple levels, and they wanted to hold the rupee below the 96.30 level. During the day, the rupee breached those levels, but the RBI came in again and managed to close below," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

The rupee settled at 96.2800 per dollar Friday, up from 96.3450 the previous day. The rupee moved within a narrow 14-paise range during the day. The Indian unit fell over 1% this week from 95.3250 a dollar. With this, the rupee is just about 68 paise away from the all-time low of 96.96 a dollar. Most Asian currencies fell 0.1%-0.4% against the dollar Friday, with the South Korean won being the worst hit. The Indonesian Rupiah and Indian rupee bucked the trend and rose Friday. 

 

The rupee started the day on a slightly positive note as the RBI sold dollars in the non-deliverable forwards market, which also helped the currency in the spot market. Dealers said the biggest support for the rupee on Friday came from the RBI, and its intervention kept the Indian unit range-bound during the day.

 

The rupee was under pressure during the day as crude oil prices soared to $85 a barrel Friday from an average of $75 a barrel last week as the US intensified its attack on Iran for the sixth day in a row. The US hit Iran's civilian infrastructure, including power facilities and a train station, while Iran targeted US military bases in Bahrain and Kuwait. At 1530 IST, Brent crude oil prices for September delivery were at $85.89 a barrel, up from $84.23 Thursday. At the current level, crude oil is 17?ove the pre-war level, dealers said. 

 

Meanwhile, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said that the rupee is in a relatively good position. The Indian unit was supported by RBI's recent measures and India's strong external sector, Malhotra said in an interview with Doordarshan.

 

Banks bought dollars for importers, fearing a further fall in the Indian unit and a rise in crude oil, which weighed on the rupee. They said the bids were mostly from companies in the oil and defence sectors. Importers hedged cautiously rather than aggressively. Dealers said that importers were hesitant to place bids as they awaited further clarity on the developments in West Asia. 

 

The dollar index remained near 101 as investors turned to safe-haven assets amid an escalation in West Asia and uncertainty about the stability of the peace deal. The demand for dollars kept all Asian currencies on edge.

 

A sharp rise in domestic indices also supported the rupee. The Sensex and Nifty 50 rose 1.3% and 1.1%, respectively, on Friday.   

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	96.2800	96.3050	96.2600	96.4050	96.3450
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	278.32	273.36	278.50	273.36	274.33

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium rose as banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, who expect further depreciation of the rupee amid heightened hostilities between the US and Iran, dealers said.

 

Some dealers said increased dollar liquidity in the system, owing to the RBI's intervention in the spot market and foreign fund inflows, also supported the forward premiums. The RBI's active dollar sales in the spot market prevented further losses for the local unit. 

 

Market participants said the central bank did not conduct any buy-sell swaps to neutralise its spot interventions and further add to its already ballooning short dollar forward book. At 1530 IST, the one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.89%, up from 2.85% at close on Thursday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 278.32 paise, up from 274.33 paise Thursday. 

 

OUTLOOK

On Monday, the rupee will track movements in crude oil prices and the dollar index, which have been in focus since the war in West Asia began. Market participants remain cautious about developments in the war over the weekend, which could influence risk appetite. 

 

Market participants will also track foreign fund inflows in response to the measures announced by the RBI to attract foreign capital, dealers said. Dealers said inflows into FCNR(B) deposits will rise as soon as banks sort out their internal processes in another two weeks. "The rupee's depreciating trend will fade slowly once the rest of the expected FCNR deposits come in. So I don't think the rupee will fall to an all-time low," a dealer at a private sector bank said.

 

Dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars, which will weigh on the rupee. However, they also expect the RBI to intervene if the Indian unit comes under extreme pressure. The next intervention by the RBI is expected to be around 96.50 a dollar. 

 

Dealers see strong technical support for the Indian currency at 96.50 per dollar, a break of which may push the Indian unit below 96.75. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 96.20-96.75 against the dollar Monday. 

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India Rupee - World FX:Dollar up on safe-haven demand, yen nears 40-year low

 

	AT 1430 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3440	1.3480	1.3439	1.3474
EUR/USD	1.1440	1.1453	1.1435	1.1442
NZD/USD	0.5827	0.5848	0.5828	0.5831
AUD/USD	0.6971	0.7001	0.6971	0.6994
USD/JPY	162.4070	162.4720	162.1280	162.3740
USD/CAD	1.4032	1.4043	1.4026	1.4039
EUR/JPY	185.8100	185.9600	185.6330	185.7550
CHF/USD	1.2395	1.2401	1.2355	1.2362
EUR/CHF	0.9229	0.9255	0.9228	0.9252

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index stayed firm near 101 Friday as traders remained focused on the escalation in the US-Iran conflict in West Asia that is pushing oil prices up. The US economy is less exposed to energy shocks than most countries, helping to attract safe-haven flows into the dollar during a surge in energy costs and inflation pressures across the world. The flows into the dollar are often at the expense of the euro and the yen.

 

The dollar index clung to its recent gains as it recovered from a near one-month low on expectations that the US Federal Reserve will hold rates steady this ‌month after tamer inflation data. Safe-haven flows have supported the greenback. At 1416 IST, the index was at 100.74, from 100.71 Thursday.

 

The euro fell 0.3% to $1.14 from $1.15 Thursday even as the eurozone's current account surplus widened to 25.1 billion euros in May from 17.5 billion euros a month earlier. The surplus was driven by a rise in primary income, which includes items like interest, profit, or dividend income, which offset a narrowing trade surplus. The pound sterling also fell 0.3% to $1.34 Friday.

 

The Japanese yen fell marginally for the second day and neared its weakest level in 40 years against the dollar as investors kept a close watch on Japanese authorities for any signs of intervention in the foreign exchange market. With global oil prices rising, market pricing for a 25 basis-point rate hike by the Bank of Japan at its July meeting has climbed above 30%. The Swedish krona and Swiss franc were down 0.4% and 0.3?ch.  (Divya Moolayattil and Janaki Venugopalan)

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India Rupee: Premium up on importers' forward dollar buys, dollar glut

 

	AT 1356 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	96.3450	96.3050	96.2600	96.4050	96.3450
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	277.50	273.36	278.50	273. 36	274.33

 

NEW DELHI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium rose as banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, who expect further depreciation of the rupee amid the increased hostilities between the US and Iran, dealers said. "The oil spike has definitely led to bids (dollar buying) in the market increasing," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "There is a bit of dollar glut as well."

 

The Indian unit has come under pressure, falling over 1% against the dollar this week, as crude oil prices surged owing to conflict in the West Asia, dealers said. However, the Reserve Bank of India has been actively selling dollars in the spot market, preventing further losses for the local unit, they said. 

 

Some dealers said increased dollar liquidity in the system owing to the RBI's intervention and foreign fund inflows also supported the forward premiums. "Dollar has been in surplus, which is why you can see the forward points ticking up in the near-end as well," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. 

 

However, market participants don't expect the central bank to conduct buy-sell swaps to neutralise its spot interventions and further add to its already ballooning short dollar forward book. Since spot dollar sales drain out rupee liquidity from the banking system, the RBI typically conducts buy-sell swaps to replenish liquidity. 

 

The RBI's net outstanding sales of dollar-rupee forward contracts rose to a record high of $106.65 billion at the end of May. The short dollar forward book is only expected to increase further owing to the central bank's swap facility to attract foreign inflows through foreign currency non-resident deposits and external commercial borrowings. 

 

At 1356 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.88%, higher than Thursday's close of 2.85%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 277.50 paise, against 274.33 paise Thursday.  (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee:Erases gains on importers' dlr demand; RBI's dlr sales limit fall

 

	AT 1404 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	96.3550	96.3050	96.2800	96.3800	96.3450

 

MUMBAI – The rupee erased gains against the dollar as banks bought dollars for importers, who feared further rise in crude oil prices amid escalation in the West Asia war, dealers said. They said bids were mostly from oil and defence sector companies. "The buying demand is there, it is happening. Markets are just reacting, importers are bidding amid higher oil prices," a dealer at a foreign bank said.  

 

However, the downward pressure from importers' dollar demand was curbed as the Reserve Bank of India stepped in and sold dollars through state-owned banks. The RBI intervened at multiple levels at 96.35 and 96.40 a dollar. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said in an interview with Doordarshan on Friday that the rupee is in a relatively good position. The Indian unit was supported by RBI's recent measures and India's strong external sector, he said. 

 

The Indian rupee depreciated over 1% this week after crude oil prices soared after the US resumed attacks on Iran. With this, the rupee is just about 60 paise away from all-time low. Crude oil prices rose to $85 a barrel Friday from an average of $75 a barrel last week. The US intensified its attack on Iran for the sixth day in a row. The US hit Iran's civilian infrastructure, including power facilities and a train station, while Iran targeted US military bases in Bahrain and Kuwait. 

 

At 0930 IST, Brent crude oil prices for September delivery were at $85.05 a barrel, up from $84.23 Thursday. At the current level, crude oil is 17% higher than pre-war levels, dealers said. Dealers expect the rupee to touch an all-time low of 96.96 a dollar if crude oil crosses $90 a barrel. Until then, the rupee is likely to stay range-bound. 

 

The dollar index also remained above 100 as investors turned to safe-haven assets amid escalation in West Asia and uncertainty about the stability of the peace deal. The demand for dollars kept all Asian currencies on the edge.    

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 96.20 and 96.50 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 96.45 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Jul 17

 

MUMBAI – At 1120 IST, the rupee was at 96.3700 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 96.3050 a dollar, against the previous close of 96.3450. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and a brokerage:

 

Participant	S2	S1	R1	R2
Public-sector bank	96.60	96.40	96.20	96.10
Private-sector bank	96.60	96.45	96.25	96.10
Private-sector bank	96.50	96.40	96.20	96.00
Foreign bank	96.75	96.50	96.20	96.10
Brokerage firm	96.55	96.45	96.25	96.10
Brokerage firm	96.55	96.45	96.25	96.05

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Inches up as RBI sells dollars, rise in crude oil weighs

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	96.3025	96.3050	96.2800	96.3300	96.3450

 

MUMBAI – The rupee rose slightly against the dollar as state-owned banks sold greenback for the Reserve Bank of India, which kept the rupee from falling at the open Friday amid downward pressure from rising crude prices, dealers said. The RBI was seen intervening around 96.35 a dollar, they said.

 

However, the rupee is still under pressure as crude oil prices remain elevated at $85 a barrel from an average of $75 a barrel last week. The US intensified its attack on Iran for the sixth day in a row. The US hit Iran's civilian infrastructure, including power facilities and a train station, while Iran targeted US military bases in Bahrain and Kuwait. At 0930 IST, Brent crude oil prices for September delivery were at $85.05 a barrel, up from $84.23 Thursday. At the current level, crude oil is 17% higher than pre-war levels, dealers said.

 

Banks bought dollars for importers, who fear a further rise in crude oil prices, which weighed on the Indian unit. "There's only some buying now, much of the support is from the RBI now. But, if crude goes more upside, the buying pressure will come in," a dealer at a public sector bank said. 

 

Dealers may avoid taking large bets and keep positions small until there is more clarity, which may keep the rupee movement range bound Friday. The market will be sitting in a light position today as two counterbalancing forces prevail. One is the war escalation or de-escalation, the second is Bloomberg index inclusion," a dealer at a private sector bank said. Traders remained hopeful of the inclusion of Indian sovereign bonds in Bloomberg's flagship Global Aggregate Index.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 96.20 and 96.45 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 96.20 a dollar.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Jul 17

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Friday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll: 

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Public-sector bank	96.60	96.20
Public-sector bank	96.55	96.25
Private-sector bank	96.50	96.20
Private-sector bank	96.60	96.30
Foreign bank	96.50	96.20
Foreign bank	96.75	96.30
Brokerage firm	96.50	96.20
Brokerage firm	96.55	96.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most edge lower as dollar steadies on low inflation

 

MUMBAI – Mosta Asian currencies edged lower and the dollar steadied Friday as continued retaliation from both Iran and the US pushed up oil prices further. The safe-haven currency recovered from a near one-month low on expectations that the US economy will remain resilient with tamer inflation data and the country's economy being less exposed to energy shocks compared to most countries. 

 

Crude oil prices rose marginally Friday after dipping the previous day due to continued retaliation from both Iran and the US, which kept oil supplies low. US President Donald Trump has ramped up attacks on Iranian military facilities, marking the sixth-consecutive night of US air strikes, while Iran Thursday asked Yemen's Houthi movement to stand ready to close the Red Sea oil route if the United States strikes Iranian power infrastructure. 

 

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz declined to nine vessels Wednesday, down from 13 Tuesday, after the US reimposed a naval blockade on Iraninan ports, Kpler data showed.

 

The Korean won rose marginally against the US dollar as the Bank of Korea Thursday raised its interest rates for the first time in more than three years by 25 basis points to 2.75%, in line with Street estimates. The higher rates supported the currency by attracting foreign inflows. The won recovered and traded at 1478.10 per dollar Friday, up from 1478.48 Thusday, hitting its highest level since May. 11. 

 

The intervention from Korea's central bank comes after the country's headline inflation rose to its highest since 2023, to 3.2%. Inflation in South Korea is expected to remain high "for a considerable time," and the country's growth rate is expected to "considerably exceed" the bank's May forecast of 2.6% due to the continued impact from rising energy cost, Bank of Korea said. The Bank of Korea Governor Shin Hyun Song told parliament last week there was "ample room for the won to strengthen going forward," and added the country is currently accumulating "a very large current account surplus." 

 

The Japanese yen fell slightly Friday after previously gaining against the falling dollar, but remained near a four-decade low. Traders remained cautious of an intervention from the Bank of Japan, with rising expectations of a surge in corporate inflation adding to the broadening price pressures in the country. The yen traded at 162.444 yen per dollar Friday from  162.352 Thursday. 

 

The Taiwan dollar and Thai baht dipped slightly and traded at 32.27 and 33.59 per dollar, respectively. The chinese yuan fell 0.17% Friday to 6.77 from 6.76 a dollar.  (Janaki Venugopalan)  

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 96.2800

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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