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Informist, Thursday, Jul. 16, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil

 

MUMBAI – The rupee ended at an eight-week low against the dollar on Thursday, falling for the fourth consecutive day, due to higher crude oil prices after the US and Iran traded strikes, dealers said. Importers' dollar purchases also weighed on the Indian unit, they said. However, losses for the Indian unit were limited owing to the Reserve Bank of India's greenback sales and foreign fund inflows, they said. 

 

"The rupee will be under pressure till geopolitical tension persists. Today, there was selling (dollars) by foreign banks, which helped to curb the pressure from importers' demand. If crude stays at the same range, we will continue to see rupee fall gradually everyday," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

  

The rupee settled at 96.3450 a dollar Thursday, lower than Wednesday's close of 96.2550. The rupee moved in a a narrow range of 15 paise during the day. The Indian unit depreciated over 1% against the dollar so far this week, erasing all gains since the RBI announced measures on Jun. 5 to attract foreign fund inflows. With this, the rupee is just about 60 paise away from its all-time low of 96.96 a dollar.

 

Most Asian currencies rose against the dollar Thursday, with the South Korean won being the best performer. The Indian unit and Chinese yuan bucked the trend and fell slightly Thursday. 

 

The rupee opened steady against the dollar as ther greenback weakened after the market scaled back expectations of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in the near term due to lower than expected CPI and PPI prints. At 1530 IST, the dollar index was at 100.54, down from Wednesday's high of 101.02.

 

However, higher crude oil prices continued to be a pain point for the rupee as the US and Iran launched attacks for the fifth consecutive day. The US on Thursday attacked an oil tanker that attempted to sail towards an Iranian port. The current US naval blockade on Iranian ports could have a more devastating impact on oil prices than the first one, imposed from April to June, because global oil reserves are lower and ships face heightened risks. At 1530 IST, Brent crude oil prices for September delivery were at $84.72 a dollar, down from $84.95 Wednesday. Crude oil prices are 17% higher than pre-war levels, which put pressure on Asian currencies. 

 

"If geopolitics worsens and crude breaches 90 ($/barrel), the rupee may touch all-time low. Till then, the rupee will hover around in the same range," the dealer said. 

 

Banks bought the greenback on behalf of oil marketing companies and other importers amid concern that crude oil prices could continue rising, which put more pressure on the Indian unit, dealers said. Traders also bought dollars to settle maturities in non-deliverable forwards contracts, which put further pressure on the Indian unit, they said.

 

Banks also sold dollars, likely due to foreign fund inflows from SBI Funds Management's initial public offering, which saw strong demand on the last day. The SBI Funds IPO was oversubscribed on the second day Wednesday. Dealers said state-owned banks sold dollars for the RBI at around 96.35 a dollar amid strong opposing pressure from geopolitical tensions. However, the central bank's intervention was not aggressive in nature, they said. 

 

"The overall volume was down in the market. There was some selling for SBI Funds IPO, but that was countered by importers' dollar demand," a dealer at a public sector bank said.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	96.3450	96.2475	96.2250	96.3550	96.2550
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	274.33	274.68	277.83	273.72	278.02

 

FORWARDS 

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium fell as banks sold dollars for forward delivery, likely for foreign fund inflows, dealers said. The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium reversed all gains from Wednesday and fell to 2.84% or 273.72 paise Thursday.

 

The fall in forward premiums was limited as banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, who feared a further rise in crude oil prices, said dealers. Premiums were under pressure due to a rise in US Treasury yields Thursday, dealers said. At 1530 IST, the 10-year US Treasury yield ‌rose to 4.57% from 4.55% Wednesday as oil prices rose due to the ongoing US-Iran war.

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.85%, lower than Wednesday's close of 2.87%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 274.33 paise, against 278.02 paise Wednesday.

 

OUTLOOK

On Friday, the rupee will track movements in crude oil prices and the dollar index as market participants focus on rising tension between the US and Iran, dealers said.

 

Market participants expect importers to continue buying dollars, which may weigh on the Indian currency. "Since there aren't much inflows expected tomorrow, like SPI IPO on Thursday, the dollar buying will put downside pressure on rupee tomorrow," a dealer at a foreign bank said.

 

Most dealers expect the RBI to intervene by selling dollars if the Indian unit comes under pressure. Market participants will also track potential foreign fund inflows from the measures announced by the RBI and the government in June to attract foreign capital, they said. 

 

Dealers see strong support for the Indian currency at 96.50 per dollar. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 96.20–96.60 against the dollar on Friday.

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India Rupee - World FX: Dlr remains lower as mkt pares rate hike bets

 

	AT 1430 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3518	1.3544	1.3518	1.3535
EUR/USD	1.1464	1.1477	1.1460	1.1465
NZD/USD	0.5852	0.5858	0.5834	0.5832
AUD/USD	0.6999	0.7011	0.6986	0.7003
USD/JPY	162.1530	162.1810	161.9850	162.1270
USD/CAD	1.4043	1.4054	1.4036	1.4026
EUR/JPY	185.8930	185.9950	185.7880	185.8500
CHF/USD	1.2390	1.2431	1.2389	1.2412
EUR/CHF	0.9252	0.9254	0.9228	0.9229

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index held on to Wednesday's losses as the market scaled back expectations of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve after US CPI and PPI prints came in lower than expected. The US Producer Price Index fell 0.3% on month in June, the biggest decline since April 2025 and reversing part of May's 0.6% increase. The dollar index weakened 0.5% to 100.50 from Wednesday's high of 101.02, which supported Asian currencies.  

 

However, rising hostilities in West Asia weighed on the currencies. The US launched another wave of strikes on Iran with Iranian media reporting explosions on Qeshm Island, Bandar Abbas, and Chabahar. The Iran military warned "all infrastructure in the region will be crushed under steel blows" if the US carries out its threat to attack Iran's civilian sites. Crude oil prices remained elevated as the US Thursday attacked an oil tanker attempting to sail towards an Iranian port in the Strait of Hormuz. At 1413 IST, Brent crude oil prices for September delivery were at $84.59 a barrel, down from $84.95 Wednesday. Crude oil prices are 17% higher than pre-war levels.

 

The euro was up 0.4% at $1.146 against the dollar. The sterling pound rose sharply by 0.9% to $1.353 from $1.341 Wednesday. The UK economy grew 0.1%, after a decline of 0.1% in April, in line with market expectations. GDP growth was driven by expansion in the services sector. 

 

The Japanese yen also rose slightly to 162.10 from 162.33 Wednesday as a weaker dollar supported risk sentiment in the market. The Swedish krona and the Swiss franc rose 0.8% and 0.6%, respectively.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Premiums fall as banks sell dollars for likely FX inflows

 

	AT 1330 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	96.3300	96.2475	96.2250	96.3550	96.2550
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	274.83	274.68	277.83	273.72	278.02

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium fell as banks sold dollars for forward delivery likely for the foreign fund inflows, dealers said. The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium reversed all gains from Wednesday and fell to 2.84% or 273.83 paise Thursday. "There was some buying and selling activity in the morning. But, overall, the volume in the market is very down today, so liquidity is less," a dealer at a public sector bank said. 

 

The rupee touched an eight-week low of 96.3550 against the dollar in the spot market, owing to a sharp rise in crude oil prices this week due to the US-Iran war. Crude oil prices stayed high, 17?ove pre-war levels, as the US attacked ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. At 1330 IST, Brent crude oil prices for September delivery were at $84.53 a barrel, down from $84.95 Wednesday. 

 

The fall in forward premiums was limited as banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, who feared a further rise in crude oil prices, said dealers. The oil importers' demand also put pressure on the rupee in the spot market. 

 

At 1330 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.85%, lower than Wednesday's close of 2.87%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 274.83 paise, against 278.02 paise Wednesday. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Remains dn on banks' dlr purchase for importers, NDF maturities

 

	AT 1240 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	96.2925	96.2475	96.2250	96.3550	96.2550

 

MUMBAI – The rupee remained slightly lower against the dollar as banks bought the greenback on behalf of oil marketing companies and other importers amid concerns that the Indian currency could weaken further and crude oil prices could continue rising, dealers said. "The market is mostly dull today. Demand is more in the fixing market and seeing more oilers (oil companies) bets," a dealer at a foreign bank said. 

 

Traders bought dollars to settle maturities in non-deliverable forwards contracts, which put further pressure on the Indian unit, they said. The rupee has fallen nearly 1% so far this week, erasing all gains since Jun. 5 after the RBI announced measures to attract foreign fund inflows. The rupee is just about 60 paise away from its all-time low of 96.96 a dollar. 

 

Market participants, however, anticipate that the rupee will resist falling to a historic low, given the higher chances of the Reserve Bank of India intervening to mitigate extreme downward pressure. Dealers said state-owned banks sold dollars for the RBI at around 96.35 amid strong opposing pressure from geopolitical tensions. However, the central bank's intervention has not been aggressive in nature, they said. 

 

Higher crude oil prices continued to be a pain point for the rupee as the US and Iran launched attacks for the fifth consecutive day. The US on Thursday attacked an oil tanker that attempted to sail towards an Iranian port in the Strait of Hormuz. The US naval blockade on Iranian ports could have a more devastating impact on oil prices than the first one, imposed from April to June, because global oil reserves are lower and ships face heightened risks. At 1200 IST, Brent crude oil prices for September delivery were $84.51 a dollar, down from $84.95 Wednesday. Crude oil prices are 17% higher than pre-war levels, which will put pressure on Asian currencies. 

 

Banks also sold dollars, likely due to foreign fund inflows from SBI Funds Management's initial public offering, which entered the last day of bidding and was fully subscribed on the second day. 

The dollar index weakened 0.5% to 100.45 from Wednesday's high of 101.02, which gave some relief to the Indian unit as lower-than-expected CPI and PPI prints prompted markets to scale back expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate hike in the near term. The US Producer Price Index fell 0.3% on month in June, the biggest decline since April 2025 and reversing part of May's 0.6% increase. 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in the range of 96.00-96.40. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 96.40 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Jul 16

 

MUMBAI – At 1139 IST, the rupee was at 96.3175 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 96.2475 a dollar, against the previous close of 96.2550. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and a brokerage:

 

Participant	S2	S1	R1	R2
Public-sector bank	96.50	96.40	96.10	95.90
Private-sector bank	96.60	96.45	96.20	96.00
Private-sector bank	96.50	96.40	96.20	96.00
Private-sector bank	96.60	96.50	96.10	96.00
Foreign bank	96.60	96.40	96.00	95.90
Brokerage firm	96.55	96.45	96.05	95.95
Brokerage firm	96.65	96.45	96.20	96.00

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Tad down on high oil prices, importers demand; weak dlr supports

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	96.3000	96.2475	96.2250	96.3400	96.2550

 

MUMBAI – The rupee was slightly down against the dollar in early trade Thursday as crude oil prices remained elevated on escalation in the West Asia war. At 0930 IST, Brent crude oil prices for September delivery were $84.74 a dollar, down from $84.95 Wednesday. Crude oil prices are 17% higher than pre-war levels. 

 

Banks bought dollars actively for importers, who feared a further rise in crude oil prices, which will weigh on the rupee. "There is only some buying demand now. Importers may come actively after 12 (1200 IST), so the rupee may touch 96.50," a dealer at a public sector bank said.  

 

However, dealers don't expect the rupee to sustain fall towards 96.50 a dollar as the RBI may protect 96.40 (a dollar). The RBI sold dollars this week to limit the rupee's depreciation and curb volatility in the market. 

 

The dollar weakened as markets scaled back on the expectation of a Federal Reserve rate hike in the near term after lower than expected CPI and PPI data, which gave some relief to the Indian unit. The dollar index was at 100.50 from Wednesday's high of 101.02. 

 

Banks may sell dollars due to foreign fund inflows from SBI Funds Management's initial public offering, which enters the last day of bidding and was fully subscribed on the second day. This may also limit further fall of the rupee.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 96.20 and 96.50 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 96.40 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Jul 16

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Thursday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll: 

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Public-sector bank	96.50	96.20
Public-sector bank	96.55	96.25
Private-sector bank	96.50	96.20
Private-sector bank	96.45	96.10
Foreign bank	96.50	96.20
Foreign bank	96.60	96.20
Brokerage firm	96.55	96.05
Brokerage firm	96.45	96.20

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Steady; weak dollar helps, higher crude prices weigh

 

MUMBAI – Asian currencies traded on a mixed note in early trade Thursday, with sideways movement as traders found no clear direction amid a weakening dollar and rising crude oil prices. The US Producer Price Index fell 0.3% on month in June, the biggest decline since April 2025 and reversing part of May's 0.6% increase. The softer-than-expected PPI print follows the lower-than-expected CPI, prompting markets to scale back near-term US Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations. The dollar index weakened 0.5% to 100.50 from Wednesday's high of 101.02, which supported the Asian currencies. 

 

The crude oil prices remained elevated as the US Thursday attacked an oil tanker attempting to sail towards an Iranian port in the Strait of Hormuz. The US struck Iran again Thursday, and explosions were reported in southern Iran, as the countries fought for the fifth consecutive day over the Strait of Hormuz, the major shipping route that has become the spotlight of the reignited war.

 

At 0700 IST, Brent crude oil prices for September delivery were $85.19 a barrel, up from $84.95 Wednesday. The US naval blockade on Iranian ports could have a more devastating impact on oil prices than the first one, imposed from April to June, because global oil reserves are lower and ships face heightened risks. Crude oil prices are 17% higher than pre-war levels. 

 

The South Korean won was down marginally to 1487.78 a dollar from 1485.61 Wednesday. South Korea's central bank hiked its benchmark policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% on Thursday. This is the first rate hike since January 2023, as inflation in June crept up to its highest level in three years, at 3.2%. 
 

The Indonesian rupiah was steady at 18059 against the dollar Thursday. The Philippine peso was also steady at 61.63 a dollar after it rebounded Wednesday after approaching its historic weakest level on Tuesday. 

 

The Thai baht fell 0.2% to 33.57 a dollar from 33.52 Wednesday as the rise in oil prices and weak tourism weighed on the country's economy. The Taiwan dollar was stable against the US dollar at 32.16 Thursday. The Chinese yuan was down 0.2?ter China's GDP growth moderated to 4.3% from 5% in the June quarter. (Divya Moolayattil)

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 96.3450

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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