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Informist, Wednesday, Jul. 15, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil

 

MUMBAI – The rupee erased gains and ended slightly lower for the third consecutive day against the dollar on Wednesday as banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, fearing further weakness in the Indian unit amid escalation in the West Asia war, dealers said. A surge in crude oil prices also weighed on the Indian currency, they said. However, banks' dollar sales for foreign investors and possibly for the Reserve Bank of India limited the fall of the rupee. 

 

"The underlying sentiment for the rupee is weak now. Every day, because of the West Asia war situation, the rupee is falling. But the RBI and some foreign investors' sales (dollar) are keeping the rupee movement rangebound," a dealer at a private sector bank said.  The rupee moved in a range of 23 paise throughout the day.

 

The rupee settled at 96.2550 a dollar, lower than Tuesday's close of 96.2000. The Indian unit depreciated 1% this week, erasing all gains since the RBI announced measures on Jun. 5 to attract foreign fund inflows. Other Asian currencies traded on a mixed note, with the South Korean won being the worst hit on Wednesday.

 

The rupee started the day on a slightly positive note as the dollar weakened after lower-than-expected US inflation data for June, dealers said. The US headline CPI eased to 3.5% on year from 4.2% in May, and below the market expectation of 3.8%. Investors scaled back expectations of a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve in July, which hit demand for the greenback, they said. 

 

However, the dollar index reversed most of the losses posted in early trade Wednesday, which put pressure on the Indian unit as investors shifted to the safe haven greenback amid the escalation in the war between the US and Iran. At 1530 IST, the dollar index was at 100.99, against 100.94 Tuesday. 

 

The rupee was also weighed down by a rise in crude oil prices as the US and Iran traded strikes, dampening hopes of a near-term end to the war. The US continued its blockade of Iranian ports, but reversed a plan to impose a 20% tariff on ships transiting through Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil prices have risen 12% so far this week after both countries breached the ceasefire last week. At 1200 IST, Brent crude oil prices for September delivery were $85.30 a barrel, up from $84.73 Tuesday. At $85.30 a barrel, crude oil prices were 17?ove pre-war levels. 

 

Banks bought the greenback on behalf of oil marketing companies and other importers amid concern that crude oil prices could continue rising, which put more pressure on the Indian unit, dealers said. "The buying was not aggressive, but we could see some demand as the rupee crossed 96.20 (a dollar). Importers will keep coming as crude oil rises," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

The fall in the rupee was limited as banks sold dollars due to foreign fund inflows from SBI Funds Management's initial public offering, which was fully subscribed on the second day of bidding. There are many other IPOs in the pipeline, which may provide the local currency with a buffer against volatility, they said.

 

Dealers speculate the Reserve Bank of India sold dollars through state-owned banks during the last leg of the trade to support the depreciating currency. "For most of the day, the RBI was absent. It stepped in when buying pressure came at around 96.23 (a dollar). But they were not aggressive," a dealer at a public sector bank said. "I don't think the RBI will play aggressively when the fundamentals are weak. The market forces cannot be suppressed."

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	96.2550	96.1725	96.0500	96.2800	96.2000
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	278.02	274.59	278.02	274.09	273.92

 

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium rose for the third consecutive day and hit a three-week high as some banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers as crude oil prices stay elevated amid the escalation in the US-Iran war, dealers said. 

 

However, banks also sold forward dollars due to foreign fund inflows for initial public offerings, which put pressure on forward premiums. Premiums were under pressure due to a rise in US Treasury yields Wednesday, dealers said. At 1530 IST, the 10-year US Treasury yield ‌rose to a four-week high of 4.61% from 4.59% Tuesday as oil prices rose due to the ongoing US-Iran war. 

 

The one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.87% at 1530 IST, up from Tuesday's close of 2.85%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 278.02 paise, against 273.92 paise Tuesday.

 

OUTLOOK

On Thursday, the rupee will track movements in crude oil prices as market participants focus on rising tension between the US and Iran, dealers said. They will also track the dollar index as investors shift their focus to upcoming US economic data for further direction of the rupee. 

 

Market participants expect importers to continue buying dollars, which may weigh on the Indian currency. However, banks may sell dollars due to foreign fund inflows for the initial public offering of SBI Fund Management. "Tomorrow is the last day for SBI Funds IPO, so we may see some good inflows, which may give some support to the rupee in the wake of volatile trade amid West Asia war," a dealer at a foreign bank said. 

 

Most dealers expect the RBI to intervene by selling dollars if the Indian unit comes under pressure. Market participants will also track potential foreign fund inflows from the measures announced by the RBI and the government in June to attract foreign capital, they said. 

 

Dealers see strong support for the Indian currency at 96.35 per dollar. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 96.00–96.45 against the dollar on Thursday.

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India Rupee - World FX: Dollar steady on safe haven demand amid W Asia war

 

	AT 1500 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3393	1.3420	1.3385	1.3387
EUR/USD	1.1420	1.1444	1.1418	1.1418
NZD/USD	0.5819	0.5826	0.5807	0.5809
AUD/USD	0.6986	0.6993	0.6972	0.6970
USD/JPY	162.3190	162.3480	161.9680	162.2120
USD/CAD	1.4057	1.4070	1.4040	1.4064
EUR/JPY	185.3740	185.6200	185.2390	185.2300
CHF/USD	1.2337	1.2377	1.2337	1.2346
EUR/CHF	0.9256	0.9258	0.9242	0.9239

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index reversed most of the losses posted in early trade Wednesday and was steady as investors shifted to the safe haven greenback amid the escalation in the war between the US and Iran. However, lower US inflation scaled back expectations of rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve in the near term, which weighed on demand of the greenback. The US headline CPI eased to 3.5% on year from 4.2% in May, and below the market expectations of 3.8%. The dollar index was at 100.90, slightly down from 100.94 Tuesday. 

 

On the war front, the US launched another round of strikes on Iran, with an aim to degrade Iran's military capabilities used to attack commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump said the US military will continue to strike Iran until it agrees to a peace deal. Crude oil prices rose sharply as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz plummeted after Iran hit ships. Brent crude oil prices were at $84.70 a barrel, from $84.73 Tuesday. Brent Crude oil was 17% higher from the pre-war levels, which kept the currencies on the edge. 

 

The euro rose 0.3% to $1.144 from $1.141 Tuesday as expectations grew for further European Central Bank interest rate hikes. The ECB raised rates at its June meeting for the first time since 2023, and investors now anticipate two more hikes over the next year, with the first likely in September, to counter inflation driven by rising fuel costs from the Iran conflict. The ECB is set to meet on Jul. 23 to decide on the interest rates. 

 

The pound sterling rose marginally to $1.34 Wednesday after Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said he was concerned about the resumption of hostilities between the US ‌and Iran in recent days, but so far, there had been no big impact on the UK's inflation outlook. 

 

The Japanese yen steadied around 162 per dollar Wednesday, drawing support from a relatively weaker dollar. Still, the outlook remained clouded by rising geopolitical tensions in West Asia, which sent crude oil prices on a high. 

 

The Canadian dollar was up 0.5% at 1.40 a dollar from 1.41 Tuesday. The Swedish krona and Swiss franc were up 0.5% and 0.3%, respectively, Wednesday. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: 1-yr premium at 3-week high as banks buy fwd dlrs for importers

 

	AT 1330 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	96.2025	96.1725	96.0500	96.2525	96.2000
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	276.38	274.59	276.38	274.09	273.92

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium rose for the third consecutive day and hit a three-week high as some banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers as crude oil prices stay elevated amid escalation in US-Iran war, dealers said. "We can see some buying, but they are not very aggressive. That is why the rupee (dollar-rupee) is up slightly in spot. Importers' buying has countered all selling today," a dealer at a foreign bank said. 

 

However, banks also sold forward dollars due to foreign fund inflows for initial public offerings, which put pressure on forward premiums. The rupee hit a high of 96.0500 a dollar in the spot market Wednesday.    

 

Premiums were under pressure due to a rise in the US Treasury yields Wednesday, dealers said. At 1330 IST, the 10-year US Treasury yield ‌rose to a four-week high of 4.61% from 4.59% Tuesday as oil prices rose due to the ongoing US-Iran war. 

 

The one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.86% at 1330 IST, up from Tuesday's close of 2.85%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 276.38 paise, against 273.92 paise Tuesday. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Pares gains on importer demand, rise in oil; weak dlr supports

 

	AT 1240 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	96.2025	96.1725	96.0500	96.2350	96.2000

 

MUMBAI – The rupee erased gains from early trade Wednesday as banks bought dollars for importers, who feared a sharp rise in crude oil prices amid escalation in the war between the US and Iran, dealers said. "Importers' strategy is to buy on every dip now. They will continue buying as crude remains elevated," a dealer at a public sector bank said. 

 

The rupee was also weighed down by a rise in crude oil prices as the US and Iran traded strikes, dampening hopes of a near-term end to the war. The US continued its blockade on Iranian ports, but reversed plan to impose the 20% tariff on ships transiting through Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil prices have risen 12% so far this week after both the countries breached ceasefire last week and went back to square one. At 1200 IST, Brent crude oil prices for September delivery were $85.30 a barrel, up from $84.73 Tuesday. At $85.30 a barrel, crude oil prices were 17?ove pre-war levels. 

 

"More than the war developments, it's crude that the rupee follows. Most of our import bills come from oil purchases. That's why the rupee's depreciation was more than any other currency," a dealer at a public sector bank said. The rupee depreciated nearly 1% in the previous two sessions, wiping out gains made after the Reserve Bank of India announced measures in June to attract foreign fund inflows. 

 

However, the rupee was supported as the dollar weakened after US inflation for June came in softer than expected and investors scaled back on US Federal Reserves' rate hike expectations in the near term. The US headline CPI was at 3.5% in June on year, down from 4.2% in May, and below the market expectation of 3.8%. At 1200 IST, the dollar index fell slightly to 100.79 from 100.94 on Tuesday, providing some relief to Indian units that grappled with high energy prices.

 

The fall in the dollar index was limited as market still priced in one rate hike before the year-end as US Fed Chair Kevin Warsh in testimony to the House Financial Services Committee Tuesday reiterated his stance on bringing inflation to the central bank's target of 2%, dealers said. 

 

The rupee also got support from banks' dollar sales due to foreign fund inflows from SBI Funds Management's initial public offerings, which was fully subscribed on the second day of bidding. There are many other IPOs in the pipeline, which may provide local currency with a buffer against volatility. Dealers said the Reserve Bank of India was absent in the market and the movement of the rupee was due to genuine flows.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in the range of 96.00-96.40. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 96.25 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Jul 15

 

MUMBAI – At 1115 IST, the rupee was at 96.1350 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 96.1725 a dollar, against the previous close of 96.2000. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and a brokerage:

 

Participant	S2	S1	R1	R2
Public-sector bank	96.45	96.20	95.90	95.80
Public-sector bank	96.40	95.20	96.00	95.80
Private-sector bank	96.35	96.25	96.00	95.90
Private-sector bank	96.30	96.20	96.00	95.80
Foreign bank	96.40	96.20	95.90	95.80
Brokerage firm	96.35	96.25	95.95	95.85
Brokerage firm	96.40	96.30	95.90	95.80

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Rises as dollar falls after US inflation slows in June

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	96.1225	96.1725	96.0500	96.1800	96.2000

 

MUMBAI – The rupee rose slightly against the dollar in early trade Wednesday as the dollar weakened after lower than expected US inflation data in June, dealers said. The US headline CPI eased to 3.5% on year from 4.2% in May, below the market expectation of 3.8%. The investors also scaled back on the expectation of a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve in July, which wavered the demand for the green back, they said. At 0900 IST, the dollar index fell slightly to 100.80 from 100.94 Tuesday

 

"The market reacted to the weaker inflation in the US. All currencies got a boost in the morning. Now we need to focus on buying and selling (dollars) in the market. But the rupee is not expected to go beyond 96.40 (a dollar)," a dealer at a public-sector bank said. 

 

However, the rise of the Indian unit was limited by further escalations in the war between the US and Iran and higher crude oil prices. US President Donald Trump late Tuesday said they will continue to attack Iran till it agrees to a peace deal. Crude oil prices rose as the US continued with its blockade on Iranian ports even as it scrapped plan to impose 20% tariff on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. At 0900 IST, Brent crude oil was at $85.90 a barrel, up from $84.73 Tuesday.

 

The dealers expect banks to actively buy dollars on behalf of importers, amid uncertainty over the war in West Asia, which will weigh on the Indian unit. However, the rupee may get some relief from foreign fund inflows Wednesday, they said.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in the range of 96.00-96.40. Dealers see immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 96.00 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Jul 15

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Wednesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll: 

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Public-sector bank	96.35	95.90
Public-sector bank	96.30	95.80
Private-sector bank	96.35	96.00
Private-sector bank	96.35	95.95
Foreign bank	96.30	96.00
Brokerage firm	96.40	96.10
Brokerage firm	96.35	96.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Steady; dlr dn on US CPI data, oil price rise weighs

 

MUMBAI- Asian currencies were broadly steady against the dollar in early trade as the dollar fell after US inflation slowed more than expected in June, with headline CPI easing to 3.5% on year from 4.2% in May, below the market expectation of 3.8%.

 

The softer inflation print prompted markets to scale back expectations for a US Federal Reserve rate hike in July, but markets still priced in one hike by year-end. At 0700 IST, the dollar index fell slightly to 100.79 from 100.94 on Tuesday, providing some relief to Asian currencies grappling with high energy prices. 

 

Meanwhile, on the war front, the US launched another round of strikes on Iran, with an aim to degrade Iran's military capabilities used to attack commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump said late Tuesday, "Our military will be striking Iran very hard and will continue to do so until Iran agrees to a deal."

 

Crude oil prices remained firm at $85 a barrel even as Trump scrapped a proposed 20% tariff on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices soared after the latest strikes by the US and Iran, one of the biggest daily jumps since the start of the war. The number of vessels transiting the waterway also plummeted. But the US continued with blockades of Iranian ports, with the US military saying there are "currently more than 20 US Navy warships and hundreds of military aircraft operating across the Middle East". At 0700 IST, Brent crude oil was at $85.85 a barrel, up from $84.73 Tuesday.

 

Meanwhile, Iran attacked US military bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, and two oil supertankers in the Strait of Hormuz.

 

The South Korean won fell marginally to 1490.88 a dollar from 1488.21 Tuesday, but the market sentiment remains in favour of the currency as investors expect the South Korean central bank to raise interest rates for the first time in more than three years as inflation remains well above its 2% target. The Bank of Korea monetary policy committee is scheduled to meet on Thursday.  

 

The Philippine peso rose slightly to 61.61 a dollar on Wednesday as scaled-back expectations for rate hikes allowed a mild appetite for risk and weighed on the safe-haven dollar. The Thai baht and Taiwan dollar were broadly stable against the dollar at 33.46 and 32.12, respectively, Wednesday. 

 

The Chinese yuan fell slightly against the dollar to 6.77 a dollar as China's GDP growth came in at 4.3% in Apr-Jun, missing economists' forecast for 4.5% growth and slowing from 5% in the previous quarter. This is the slowest economic growth China has seen since 2022. (Divya Moolayattil)

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 96.2550

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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