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Informist, Friday, Jul. 3, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil

 

MUMBAI – The rupee snapped a four-day losing streak and rose as the dollar weakened after weaker-than-expected US non-farm payroll data lowered market expectations of a near-term Federal Reserve interest rate hike. Non-farm payrolls increased by 57,000 in June, well below market expectations of 113,000 and down from May's increase of 129,000. At 1530 IST, the dollar index was at 100.76, down from 100.84 on Thursday. 

The rupee settled at 95.2100 per dollar Friday, 0.2% higher from its previous close. The rupee moved within a narrow 19-paise range during the day. Asian currencies rose 0.1-0.5% Friday, with the South Korean won being the best performer.

 

"The market was mostly lacklustre today. It was stuck in a range as there wasn't much liquidity. Most dollar buying was countered also by selling," a dealer at a public sector bank said.  

 

The rupee opened higher on Friday as risk sentiment improved after investors shifted away from safe-haven assets. The Reserve Bank of India also intervened mildly by selling dollars through state-owned banks, providing further support to the Indian unit, dealers said. 

 

"All factors were in favour of the rupee today. Global sentiment was also good and above that, the RBI protected 95.35 (a dollar) as it did yesterday, which helped the rupee break a losing streak and appreciate today," a dealer at another private sector bank said.  

 

The Indian rupee remained range-bound throughout the day. Dealers said the market saw subdued activity and thin liquidity as US markets were shut for Independence Day. 

 

However, importers stepped in to buy dollars, noting relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, following which the rupee hit a low of 95.3525 a dollar, dealers said. However, bidding by importers was not as aggressive as Thursday, and was countered by the RBI's dollar sales, dealers said.

 

The Indian unit was also supported by banks selling dollars for foreign fund inflows into government bonds, dealers said. Foreign portfolio investors turned net buyers in June after being net sellers in May. They have bought a net $275.30 million so far in July and $2.69 billion in June, compared with net sales of $21.8 billion in the three months through May. Most of these inflows were into government securities under the Fully Accessible Route.

 

Meanwhile, crude oil prices remained below pre-war levels as more ships started transiting through the Strait of Hormuz. At 1530 IST, Brent crude oil prices for September delivery were $71.90 a barrel, slightly up from $71.80 Thursday. 

 

A rise in domestic indices also supported the rupee, according to dealers. The Sensex and Nifty 50 rose 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively, Friday.   

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.2100	95.2025	95.1600	95.3525	95.3925
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	259.56	256.56	260.17	255.45	256.91

 

FORWARDS 

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium rose slightly Friday, after falling for seven days straight, as banks purchased dollars on behalf of importers, noting a relatively lower dollar-rupee premium level, dealers said. 

 

However, gains in dollar-rupee forward premiums were limited as dealers speculated that the Reserve Bank of India likely sold dollars for forward delivery in the short term to neutralise its spot interventions and avert pushing out rupee liquidity, dealers said.

 

At 1332 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.73%, up from 2.69% on Thursday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 259.56 paise, higher than 256.91 paise at close Thursday. (Divya Moolayattil)

 

OUTLOOK

On Monday, the rupee will track movement in crude oil prices and the dollar index, which have been in focus since the war in West Asia began. "Attention will also shift to the Federal Reserve meeting minutes next week, which may provide further clarity on the US interest rate outlook and direction for the dollar," Jateen Trivedi, vice president and research analyst - commodity and currency at LKP Securities, said in a note.

 

Market participants remain cautious ahead of the weekend as developments in the US-Iran and Russia-Ukraine conflicts could influence global risk appetite. They will also track foreign fund inflows from the measures announced by the RBI earlier this month to attract foreign capital, they said.

 

Dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars, which will weigh on the rupee. However, they also expect the RBI to intervene if the Indian unit comes under extreme pressure. The next intervention by the RBI is expected to be around 95.50 a dollar. "We have to closely watch RBI's activity, if it is selling aggressively or not, and also the inflows in the market, which will be a key driver for the coming week," a dealer at a private sector bank said.

 

Dealers see strong technical support for the Indian currency at 95.35 per dollar, a break of which may push the Indian unit below 95.50. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 95.00–95.45 against the dollar Monday. 

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India Rupee - World FX: Dlr falls as US payroll data misses mkt expectation

 

	AT 1430 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3359	1.3381	1.3335	1.3350
EUR/USD	1.1452	1.1462	1.1421	1.1433
NZD/USD	0.5716	0.5727	0.5690	0.5699
AUD/USD	0.6940	0.6950	0.6911	0.6920
USD/JPY	161.0490	161.5190	160.4850	161.1080
USD/CAD	1.4182	1.4197	1.4160	1.4174
EUR/JPY	184.4270	184.5700	183.9240	184.1900
CHF/USD	1.2459	1.2485	1.2426	1.2438
EUR/CHF	0.9191	0.9193	0.9180	0.9185

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index fell following a softer-than-expected US non-farm payrolls data released late Thursday. Consequently, the market implied probability of a rate hike in September dropped to nearly 50% from about 64% the previous day. At 1400 IST, the dollar index was at 100.70, slightly lower than 100.84 Thursday. The index broke a key 100.80 level, with 100.40 being the next level to be seen. 

 

The dollar remained subdued as non-farm payrolls in the US rose by 57,000 in June, much less than the market expectation of a rise of 113,000, coupled with some downward revisions to the previous months. The cautious outlook was further reinforced by expectations of moderating inflation, which did away with the immediate urgency for tightening monetary policy. The weaker dollar continued to support major currencies. 

 

The euro rose sharply by 0.3% to $1.144 from $1.140 Thursday as the eurozone services PMI business activity index jumped to 49.4 in June, above market expectations of 48.9 and 47.7 in May, driven by a sharp fall in cost pressures, ‌helping stabilise the broader economy after two months of decline.

 

The pound sterling rose sharply by 0.4% to $1.34 from $1.33 Thursday despite UK services activity falling at sharpest pace in three years to 48.8 points in June from 49.3 in May as weak demand, geopolitical uncertainty, and rising cost pressures weighed on business conditions. 

 

The Japanese yen also rose to 161.16 a dollar from 161.50 Thursday as markets fear potential Japanese government intervention. The Canadian dollar rose 0.3% to 1.42 a dollar from 1.42 in its previous close. The Swedish krona rose the most by 0.6% to 9.66 a dollar from 9.72 Thursday. The Swiss franc also rose 0.5% from the previous close.  (Divya Moolayattil) 

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India Rupee:Premiums up as bks buy fwd dlrs for importers; RBI's sale weighs

 

	AT 1300 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.3150	95.2025	95.1700	95.3425	95.3925
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	259.56	256.56	259.66	255.45	256.91

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium rose slightly Friday, after falling for seven days straight, as banks purchased dollars on behalf of importers, noting a relatively lower dollar-rupee premium level, dealers said. "The market was in Friday mode, but there was some buying in the market, which was mostly countered by forward dollar sales," a dealer at a foreign bank said. 

 

However, gains in dollar-rupee forward premiums were limited as dealers speculate the Reserve Bank of India likely sold dollars for forward delivery in the short-term to neutralise its spot interventions and avert pushing out rupee liquidity, dealers said. Intraday, the one-month forward premium fell sharply to 2.57% from 2.60%. The rupee hit a high of 95.1600 a dollar in the spot market on Friday amid RBI's intervention, but erased some gains due to importers' demand for dollars.   

 

Considering spot dollar sales drain out rupee liquidity from the banking system, the RBI conducts buy-sell swaps to replenish liquidity. A buy-sell swap entails buying dollars for immediate delivery and entering into a contract to sell these at a future date, thereby postponing the drain on systemic liquidity. 

 

At 1332 IST, the one-year exact period dollar rupee forward premium was 2.72%, up from 2.69% Thursday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 259.56 paise, slightly higher than 256.91 paise at close Thursday. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Up as dlr weakens after US payrolls data; RBI intervention aids

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.2400	95.2025	95.1700	95.3325	95.3925

 

MUMBAI – The rupee remained range-bound after rising sharply in early trade as the dollar index broke the key 100.80 level after weak US non-farm payrolls data dimmed market expectations of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in the near term. 

 

At 1200 IST, the dollar index fell to 100.62 from 100.84 Thursday. The dollar index hit a two-week low of 100.55 Thursday after the US payrolls data was released. Friday, the index remained subdued after non-farm payrolls rose by 57,000 in June, much less than market expectations of 113,000 rise and significantly below 129,000 gain in May. The Fed chair's comment that inflation is easing also did away with expectations of immediate urgency in tightening monetary policy. The index was at an over one-year high since the Fed chair turned hawkish in mid-June. 

State-owned banks sold dollars actively, likely for the Reserve Bank of India at around 95.30 a dollar, which kept the rupee in check, dealers said. However, the intervention was just to hold the level, they said. 

 

Banks also bought dollars for importers, mainly oil companies, which put pressure on the Indian unit. "Oilers are bidding, but the overall volume in the market is less as the US markets are shut," the dealer said. The US financial market is shut on Friday due to Independence Day.  

 

Meanwhile, Brent crude oil prices rose slightly, which weighed on the Indian unit. However, ships have started sailing through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping Brent at pre-war levels. Brent crude oil prices for September delivery were at $72.18 a barrel, up from $71.80 Thursday. 

 

Domestic equities rose sharply Friday, strengthening the Indian unit. At 1200 IST, the Nifty 50 and the Sensex were up 0.8% from the previous close. For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in the range of 95.10-95.40. Dealers see immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 95.15 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)  

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Jul 3

 

MUMBAI – At 1127 IST, the rupee was at 95.2900 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 95.2025 a dollar, against the previous close of 95.3925. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and a brokerage:

 

Participant	S2	S1	R1	R2
Public-sector bank	95.50	95.35	95.15	95.05
Private-sector bank	95.55	95.40	95.20	94.95
Private-sector bank	95.60	95.40	95.20	94.80
Foreign bank	95.55	95.45	95.20	94.90
Brokerage firm	95.80	95.50	95.20	94.85
Brokerage firm	95.70	95.40	95.15	95.00

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Up as dollar index falls after US payroll growth slows sharply

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.2700	95.2025	95.1700	95.3100	95.3925

 

MUMBAI – The rupee was sharply higher as the dollar fell after weaker than expected US non-farm payrolls data dampened expectations of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in the near term. The market implied probability of a September rate hike dropped to nearly 50% from roughly 64% the previous day. At 0900 IST, the dollar index was at 100.82, slightly lower than 100.84 Thursday.

 

"The sentiment is broadly positive everywhere now after the US payroll data. The rupee appreciated sharply late Thursday, and it also opened at around the same levels," a dealer at a public sector bank said. 

 

The dollar remained subdued as US non-farm payrolls rose by 57,000 in June, much less than market expectations of a 113,000 rise and significantly below the 129,000 gain in May. This weakness was reinforced by expectations of moderating inflation, which did away with the immediate urgency for tightening monetary policy. 

 

Dealers also speculate that state-owned banks sold dollars likely for the Reserve Bank of India, but not very aggressively, which supported the Indian unit further. Dealers expect importers to step in at 95.35 a dollar, which may take the rupee to 95.50 a dollar during the day. 

 

Meanwhile, Brent crude oil prices remained lower at pre-war levels as more ships started transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, easing supply concerns. Around 45 ships sailed through the key waterway in the last 24 hours, as per marine traffic data. At 0900 IST, Brent crude oil prices for August delivery were $72.26 a barrel, slightly up from $71.80 Thursday. Crude oil prices have seen a sharp reversal from the $122.5 per barrel level seen at the height of the West Asia war as Gulf countries ramped up production and supplies after an interim agreement was signed between the US and Iran in mid-June. Most Asian currencies rose slightly as risk sentiment among investors increased, diverting from the safe-haven asset.  

 

Dealers said exporters are waiting for the rupee to depreciate a bit more and may step in at 95.80 a dollar. For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in the range of 94.90-95.50. Dealers see immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 95.15 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil) 

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Jul 3

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Friday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll: 

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Public-sector bank	95.40	94.40
Private-sector bank	95.35	94.85
Private-sector bank	95.25	94.75
Private-sector bank	95.45	94.85
Private-sector bank	95.65	95.05
Foreign Bank	95.35	94.85
Brokerage firm	95.50	94.85
Brokerage firm	95.55	94.85

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most rise as dollar weakens after US payrolls data

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies rose in early trade Friday as the dollar index remained weak, and the Japanese yen strengthened to 160.97 at 0700 IST from a 40-year low of over 162 hit early in the week. This was driven by softer than expected US non-farm payrolls data, coupled with suspected FX intervention by Japanese authorities.

 

US non-farm payrolls rose by 57,000 in June, much less than market expectations of 113,000 growth, coupled with some downward revisions to the previous months. This led investors to scale back expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes this year. The cautious outlook was further reinforced by expectations of moderating inflation, which removed immediate urgency for tightening monetary policy. At 0700 IST, the dollar index was down at 100.82 from 100.84 Thursday. 

 

Meanwhile, Brent crude oil prices also remained lower at pre-war levels as more ships started transiting through the Strait of Hormuz. Around 45 ships sailed through the key waterway in the last 24 hours, as per marine traffic data. At 0700 IST, Brent crude oil for August delivery was at $71.70 a barrel, slightly down from $71.80 Thursday.   

 

The South Korean won fell 0.3% to 1542.58 a dollar from 1538.02 Thursday. South Korean government officials said they were considering measures to draw non-deliverable forward trading into onshore spot markets to support the won. The Malaysian ringgit rose 0.4% Friday as the greenback remained subdued from Thursday. 

 

The Philippine peso rose for the second consecutive day to 61.42 a dollar from 61.49 Thursday. The Thai baht and Taiwan dollar were broadly steady against the dollar at 33.13 a dollar and 31.91, respectively. The Chinese yuan was also broadly steady at 6.77 a dollar Friday. (Divya Moolayattil)

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 95.2100

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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