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Informist, Monday, Jun. 15, 2026

By Divya Moolayattil

MUMBAI – The rupee is expected to rise against the dollar Monday as crude oil price fell to an over three-month low after the US and Iran arrived at a peace deal, which will be signed in Geneva on Friday, dealers said. US President Donald Trump Monday said in a post on Truth Social, "Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow." 

The rupee is likely to open in the range of 94.65-94.75 a dollar Monday after settling at a one-week high of 95.11 Friday. The Indian unit is expected to move in a range of 94.40-95.00 against the dollar during the day. "Until a deal is signed on Friday, the market will be very anxious to know the details of the deal," a dealer at a private sector bank said. "Trading will be choppy and cautiousness is always in mind," the dealer said. 

An Iranian official said in a statement that the deal with the US includes the immediate suspension of hostilities on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and an end to the US's naval blockade on Iranian ports. Brent crude oil prices for August delivery fell to an over three-month low of $83.95 a barrel from $87.33 Friday.

Further, Asian stocks and currencies gained on positive sentiment in the market as both warring nations reached an agreement for the first time since the war started four months back.  

Dealers expect importers to take advantage of the relatively lower dollar-rupee level, which may limit gains for the Indian currency. "I am optimistic on rupee, but we need to wait and watch how importers act upon...buy on dips is also not ruled out," a dealer at a private sector bank said.

A few dealers expect the Reserve Bank of India to intervene actively and give a boost to the rupee in addition to the positive sentiment in the market due to the peace deal. "It is difficult to say when RBI will intervene, but it has been there when there is positive news on the global front. So, let's see what happens," a dealer at a public sector bank said. 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium is expected to rise as banks may buy dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, noting the appreciation of the rupee and the relatively lower premium levels, dealers said.

A fall in US Treasury yields owing to the peace deal between the US and Iran may also support premiums, they said. At 0800 IST, the 10-year US bond yield was down at 4.42% compared to 4.48% Friday. 

On an annualised basis, the premium on the one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward contract is seen at 2.80-2.95% Monday. On Friday, it settled at 2.83%. On an absolute basis, the premium ended at 269.89 paise. 

End

US$1 = INR 95.11

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Avishek Dutta

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