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Informist, Monday, Jun. 15, 2026

By Arundathi A R

MUMBAI – With the US and Iran arriving at a deal to end the war, nervousness among investors in the domestic equity market is expected to east. Benchmark stock indices are seen opening higher Monday after crude oil prices fell steeply to $83 a barrel, as signing of the peace deal will resume traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Domestic indices are also likely to track significant gains in Asian equity indices.

"This Great Deal will bring Peace and Security to the whole Region. Many presidents have tried to make Peace with Iran, and all have failed before me. The Leaders of the Region have, for the first time, found a President who can help them achieve real Peace. With the opening of the Strait upon the signing of the Deal on Friday, for purposes of mine removal, oil will flow on both ends again for the Region, and the World!," US President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social.

In a statement, the Secretariat of Iran's Supreme National Security Council said the deal with the US includes the immediate suspension of hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon, and an end to the US's naval blockade on Iranian ports. Pakistani Prime Minister Shebaz Sharif said the peace deal would be signed in Switzerland on Friday.

At 0819 IST, Brent crude oil August futures were almost 5% lower from the previous close at $83.19 a barrel. Oil futures fell for the third straight session and shed 10.5% during this period. During the last 30 days, prices fell nearly 21%. However, oil prices are still 15% higher than the pre-war level of $72.87 a barrel.

At 0739 IST, the June futures contract of the GIFT Nifty was 1.5% higher from its previous close at 23982. This was almost 360 points higher than the Nifty 50's previous close of 23622.90. "The index witnessed strong buying interest in the previous trading session, resulting in a sharp upward move and a close above both a significant technical hurdle and the psychologically important 23500 mark," Sundar Kewat, technical and derivatives analyst at Ashika Institutional Equity Research, said. "From a trend perspective, the index has also reclaimed and sustained above its 20-day moving average, currently positioned around 23538. This development reinforces the positive market structure and suggests that bullish momentum is gradually gaining traction," he said.

Kewat expects immediate targets on the upside at 24000–24200 levels. "As long as the index sustains above the 23500–23538 support region, the broader outlook is expected to remain constructive," he said.

Broking firm Emkay Global Financial Services estimates an inflow of $50 billion through the foreign currency non-resident (bank) deposit scheme, it said in a strategy report. "We expect leverage of ~6-7x (times) on aggregate (5-9x for individual customers), implying core deposit flow of USD6-7bn and the rest through leverage," according to the report.

The brokerage expects the Indian currency to appreciate to INR 94 a dollar on the back of these flows, and further progress to the pre-war levels of INR 92 a dollar if the West Asia conflict is resolved. However, it also said a strengthening rupee does not guarantee a resurgence of foreign portfolio investment flows as India continues to be vulnerable because of high valuations and being left out of the artificial intelligence theme.

On Friday, foreign investors net sold shares worth INR 10.82 billion, down from INR 19.87 billion sold Thursday. Meanwhile, domestic investors' support for the equity market intensified, as they net bought shares worth INR 53.41 billion, compared to INR 42.25 billion bought on Thursday.

All equity indices in Asia were significantly higher in early trade. Japan's Nikkei 225 Day was the highest gainer, up over 5%. South Korea's KOSPI was also 5% higher. In the US equity market, all the three major indices settled higher Friday.  End

US$1 = INR 95.11

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Avishek Dutta

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