Informist Poll
India May WPI inflation seen at 9.4% as new series debuts
This story was originally published at 20:54 IST on 12 June 2026
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By Shweta
NEW DELHI – Wholesale prices in India likely rose 9.4% on year in May, led by higher energy prices owing to the war in West Asia, according to the median of an Informist Poll of nine economists. The May wholesale inflation print will be the first under the new WPI series, which has the financial year 2022-23 (Apr-Mar) as the base year, replacing FY12.
As per the FY12 WPI series, wholesale inflation was 8.3% in April and 0.13% in May 2025. The last time WPI inflation was higher than 9.4% was in September 2022.
The commerce ministry will release WPI data for May based on the new series at 1200 IST Monday. The ministry will also, for the first time, release Producer Price Indices, globally considered a better indicator to track factory gate prices.
The ministry will release the output Producer Price Index, which tracks the price a factory gets for a produced item, and input Producer Price Index, which tracks the prices businesses pay for raw materials and energy to make a product, for May. A services Producer Price Index for the March quarter will also be released.
"WPI inflation is expected to increase... due to the pass-through of higher commodity and energy prices," Teresa John, economist at Nirmal Bang Equities, said in a note. Wholesale food prices also rose in May, which is expected to add to WPI inflation, economists said.
According to data from the Department of Consumer Affairs, wholesale prices of some edible oils rose nearly 1% on month in May. Wholesale prices of tomato jumped over 25% on month in May. Potato prices at the wholesale level rose over 3% on month and those of onion grew nearly 2% on month in May.
Core WPI inflation, which excludes food and fuel items, is expected to have risen to around 6.0% in May from 5.0% in April, according to the poll. WPI is seen much higher than its retail counterpart in May as well. CPI inflation rose to a 16-month high of 3.93% in May from 3.48% in April, according to data released Friday by the statistics ministry.
The introduction of the new WPI series and the Producer Price Indices will help policymakers to better track price changes at the factory gate. The WPI only tracks prices of goods at the wholesale level while Producer Price Indices will help to track inflation at production and wholesale levels, and also for the services sector. With the introduction of the output Producer Price Index, the government plans to do away with WPI over the next five years.
The following is a summary of the Informist Poll on WPI inflation in May, in ascending order of the estimate:
|
Organisation |
May WPI estimate |
|
STCI Primary Dealer |
8.6% |
|
Nirmal Bang |
8.85% |
|
India Ratings & Research |
9.0% |
| Sunidhi Securities | 9.25% |
|
Nomura |
9.4% |
|
Capital Economics |
9.5% |
|
ICICI Security Primary Dealership |
10.0% |
|
Motilal Oswal Financial Services |
10.3% |
|
ICICI Bank |
10.45% |
End
Edited by Rajeev Pai
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