More Stories

Informist, Friday, Jun. 12, 2026

 

By Pratiksha

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee surged against the dollar and settled at a one-week high Friday as Brent crude oil price tumbled to a three-month low on growing hopes of a peace deal between the US and Iran, dealers said. A jump in other Asian currencies and domestic equities also supported the Indian currency, they said. 

 

"The market was very choppy initially, but after crude started falling, there was just selling (of dollars) in the market," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Looks like there is a huge probability that something on the peace deal may happen over the weekend."

 

The rupee settled at 95.1100 a dollar Friday, up 0.7% from the previous close. The Indian unit moved in a range of 58 paise during the day. Other Asian currencies gained 0.2-1.0% against the greenback, with the South Korean won being the best performer.

 

The Indian unit started the day on a stronger footing and rose further during the second half of the day as Brent crude oil price fell below $86-per-barrel and hit a three-month low, dealers said. Prices initially fell after US President Donald Trump Thursday said a deal between Iran and the US could be signed as soon as this weekend. 

 

During the day, crude prices fell further after Iran's semi-official Mehr news agency reported that a memorandum of understanding with the US includes a commitment by Washington to lift sanctions, releasing Iran's frozen funds, and closing the naval blockade. However, it required finalisation by the relevant authorities. Further, Iran's foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said in a statement that there is a document being studied by the leadership in Tehran and it is "closer to being approved than ever before", Al Jazeera reported.

 

Brent crude August futures fell to $86.67 per barrel at 1530 IST from $90.38 per barrel on Thursday. It fell to a low of $85.80 per barrel during the day.

 

Domestic equities rose sharply Friday as the US and Iran seemed close to clinching a peace pact, which also supported the local unit, dealers said. The Nifty 50 and Sensex ended 2% and 2.3% higher, respectively. 

 

However, gains for the Indian currency were limited as banks bought dollars on behalf of importers seeking to take advantage of the relatively low dollar-rupee levels, dealers said. The rupee hit a high of 94.9450 during the day. 

 

Meanwhile, a section of the market remained cautious and refrained from placing large bets as they awaited confirmation of the US-Iran peace deal, dealers said. "It is very difficult to trade in this market. Random statements keep moving the market. It makes sense to keep positions light on both sides right now," a dealer at a private-sector bank said.

 

This week, the Indian unit also found some support from a slew of measures announced by the Reserve Bank of India last week to attract dollar inflows. However, market participants expect the Indian unit to find further support from the measures only once the flows begin to materialise. 

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.1100	95.3650	94.9450	95.5250	95.7600
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	269.89	270.52	274.89	267.52	274.89

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium ended lower as the rupee's sharp appreciation in the spot market prompted traders to sell forward dollars, fearing further appreciation going ahead, dealers said. However, losses were limited as some banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, noting the relatively low levels, dealers said. The one-year forward premium has declined by over 20 basis points so far this month. 

 

A fall in US Treasury yields also supported premiums, dealers said. The 10-year US bond yield fell to 4.45% Thursday from 4.55% Wednesday. 

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.84%, down from 2.87% at Thursday's close. On an absolute basis, the premium was 269.89 paise, against Thursday's close of 274.89 paise.

 

OUTLOOK

On Monday, the rupee will take cues from movement in crude oil prices amid evolving developments related to the peace deal between the US and Iran, dealers said. "The weekend will be very important for how things pan out next week. If a deal is signed or anything positive happens, the rupee should break above 94.80," a dealer at a brokerage firm said. Some dealers said if Brent crude falls below $80 per barrel on Monday, the rupee may appreciate towards 94.50 a dollar. 

 

The Indian currency is also likely to take cues from movement in the dollar index, they said. However, dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars if uncertainties related to the war in West Asia persist, exerting pressure on the Indian unit. 

 

Dealers see strong technical resistance for the Indian currency at 94.80 per dollar. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 94.80-95.30 against the dollar Monday. 

---

India Rupee - World FX:Dollar steady as investors await US-Iran deal clarity

 

	AT 1455 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3424	1.3426	1.3383	1.3412
EUR/USD	1.1588	1.1590	1.1557	1.1576
NZD/USD	0.5837	0.5840	0.5811	0.5818
AUD/USD	0.7052	0.7053	0.7021	0.7048
USD/JPY	160.0300	160.3740	159.9470	159.9470
USD/CAD	1.3977	1.3996	1.3962	1.3965
EUR/JPY	185.4450	185.5600	185.0700	185.1700
CHF/USD	1.2576	1.2590	1.2535	1.2573
EUR/CHF	0.9213	0.9221	0.9199	0.9196

 

NEW DELHI – The dollar index remained broadly steady on Friday as investors awaited for confirmation that a peace deal between the US and Iran could be imminent. Optimism around peace between Iran and the US grew after US President Donald Trump said a deal could be signed as soon as this weekend, even as Tehran said it had not made a final decision on a pact.

 

At 1455 IST, the dollar index was at 99.71 against 99.68 on Thursday and 100.08 Wednesday. Iran's local media reported that a memorendum of understand with US includes commitment by Washington to lift sanctions, releasing Iran's frozen funds, closing the naval blockade. A report from Axios said that US and Iran are close to signing an MoU, which particularly calls for the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz without tolls.

 

The euro was flat against the dollar but was broadly strong after the European Central Bank's first interest rate hike in three years on Thursday. The pound sterling was also steady but was headed to log its best weekly performance in nearly a month, owing to optimism over the West Asia peace deal.

 

The yen was down 0.1% against the greenback, around the key 160 a dollar level, with investors watching out for intervention from Tokyo. The Australian dollar was down 0.1% the US unit. (Pratiksha)

---

India Rupee: Premium dn as traders sell fwd dlrs on view rupee may rise more

 

	AT 1414 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.0900	95.3650	95.0675	95.4725	95.7600
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	269.55	270.52	274.89	267.52	274.89

 

NEW DELHI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium fell as the rupee's sharp appreciation in the spot market prompted traders to sell forward dollars, fearing further appreciation going ahead, dealers said. The Indian unit surged 0.7% against the dollar as Brent crude oil price dropped to a three-month low on increasing hopes that a peace deal between the US and Iran may materialise soon, dealers said. 

 

However, losses for the premiums were limited as some banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, noting the relatively lower levels, dealers said. "Forwards have risen last two days but are still very low from the highs that were seen before," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "So, naturally some paying is coming at these levels." The one-year forward premium has declined over 20 basis point so far this month. 

 

At 1410 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.83%, against Thursday's close of 2.87%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 269.55 paise, against Thursday's close of 274.89 paise. (Pratiksha)

---

India Rupee: Pares gains as importers buy dlrs; fall in crude oil supports

 

	AT 1305 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.4150	95.3650	95.1700	95.4575	95.7600

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee erased some early gains against the dollar as banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, in order to make the most of the relatively lower dolar-rupee levels, dealers said. However, the dollar demand was not aggressive in nature, they added. "There is persistent demand (for dollars). Today is not as much as yesterday but still very much there," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "I doubt 95.00 will breach today." 

 

The Indian unit surged in early trade, hitting a high of 95.1700 a dollar, as Brent crude oil price dropped close to a two-month low on increasing hopes that a peace deal between the US and Iran may materialise soon, dealers said. US President Donald Trump Thursday cancelled ‌plans to strike Iran and said the two countries could sign a peace deal as soon as this weekend. Brent crude August futures fell to $88.60 per barrel at 1305 IST from $90.38 per barrel on Thursday. It fell to a low of $88.16 per barrel during the day.

 

However, market participants are exercising caution and refraining from placing large bets because Iran said it had not reached a final decision on an agreement yet. "Global cues have turned positive, but nobody knows for how long that will be the case. Things can change any moment," a dealer at a private-sector bank said.

 

A sharp rise in domestic equities also boosted the Indian currency, according to dealers. At 1305 IST, the Nifty 50 and Sensex were up 0.7% and 1%, respectively. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in the range of 95.00-95.50. Dealers see immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 95.00 a dollar. (Pratiksha)

---

India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Jun 12

 

NEW DELHI – At 1050 IST, the rupee was at 95.3550 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 95.3650 a dollar, against the previous close of 95.7600. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and a brokerage:

 

Participant	S2	S1	R1	R2
Private-sector bank	-	95.75	95.10	-
Foreign bank	95.80	95.60	94.80	94.70
Brokerage firm	96.50	96.00	94.80	94.50
Brokerage firm	96.00	95.90	95.20	94.90

 

(Pratiksha)

---

 India Rupee: Surges as Brent crude oil hits 2-mo low on US-Iran deal hopes

 

--Dealers: Rupee surges as crude oil prices fall on hopes of US-Iran deal 

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.2150	95.3650	95.1800	95.3750	95.7600

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee surged against the dollar Friday as Brent crude oil price fell below the $90-per-barrel mark to hit a near two-month low on growing optimism over a peace deal between the US and Iran, dealers said. US President Donald Trump Thursday cancelled ‌plans to strike Iran and said the two countries could sign a peace deal as soon as this weekend. 

 

However, Iran countered that it had not reached a final decision on an agreement, reports said. Brent crude August futures fell to $88.87 per barrel at 0930 IST from $90.38 per barrel on Thursday. It fell to a low of $88.44 per barrel on Thursday.

 

"Drop in crude has supported the rupee, but I think further rise (in rupee) will need more meaningful news on the deal front or more fall in crude," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "If it breaks 95.00, we may see a sharp up-move."

 

A sharp rise in domestic equities also supported the Indian unit, dealers said. At 0930 IST, the Sensex and Nifty 50 were up 1.1?ch. 

 

"The broader narrative remains constructive for the rupee. USDINR (dollar-rupee) continues to face strong resistance in the 96.00-96.50 zone," Amit Pabari, managing director at CR Forex, said in a note. "If foreign inflows continue to improve and external conditions remain supportive, a break below 94.80 could gradually open the door towards the 94.50-94.00 region."

 

However, market participants expect gains for the Indian currency to be limited, as importers may buy dollars, given the relatively low dollar-rupee levels. The Indian unit settled at a one-week low of 95.7600 on Thursday, primarily due to persistent dollar demand from oil marketing companies, according to dealers. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in the range of 95.00-95.50. Dealers see immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 95.00 a dollar. (Pratiksha)

---

India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Jun 12

 

NEW DELHI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Thursday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist Poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Public-sector bank	95.80	95.20
Private-sector bank	95.75	95.10
Private-sector bank	95.65	95.00
Private-sector bank	95.55	95.10
Private-sector bank	95.60	95.10
Foreign bank	95.60	94.80
Brokerage firm	95.54	94.94

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Pratiksha)

---

India Rupee - Asia FX: Most rise as Brent crude falls, domestic stocks up

 

NEW DELHI – Most Asian currencies rose against the dollar Friday as Brent crude oil fell to a near two-month low and domestic equities gained after after US President Donald Trump canceled plans to strike Iran, increasing expectations for a deal to end the more than three months of war.  

 

Trump, who had threatened to hit Iran "very hard," called off planned strikes on Thursday, saying discussions with Iran had progressed. Iran, however, countered that it had not reached a final decision on an agreement, reports said. Brent crude August futures fell to $89.29 per barrel at 0735 IST from $90.38 per barrel on Thursday. It fell to a low of $88.44 per barrel on Thursday. 

 

The South Korean won rose 0.7% against the dollar, the most among its peers, after Bank of Korea Governor Shin Hyun-song said Friday it was necessary to raise interest rates "on time" as inflation was expected to exceed ‌the target for a considerable period of time amid elevated oil prices due to the war in West Asia. "Monetary policy often faces trade-offs between policy variables, but such trade-offs are not huge at this time. Therefore, it is necessary to raise interest rates on time with a focus on price stability," he said. 

 

The Phillipine peso rose 0.4% against the greenback. The Chinese yuan rose 0.1% against the dollar while the Malaysian ringgit was up 0.2%. 

 

Bucking the trend, the Thai baht was down 0.1% against the dollar. Bank of Thailand Governor Vitai Ratanakorn said in a speech Thursday that the country's near-term macroeconomic policies must maintain stability and protect against shocks but structural transformation is necessary to strengthen growth over the longer term.

 

The country has some policy space but it must remain cautious, he added. The Taiwan dollar was flat against the US unit.  (Pratiksha) 

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

 

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

 

Informist Media Tel +91 (11) 4220-1000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

 

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2026. All rights reserved.