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Informist, Friday, Jun. 12, 2026

MUMBAI – Sea surface temperatures have remained above-normal across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, signalling that El Nino conditions have developed in the past month, the Climate Prediction Centre of the US' National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in a report on Thursday. The event is likely to intensify in the next few months, and there is a 63% chance of a very strong El Nino during Nov-Jan, the climate centre said. 

The latest El Nino-Southern Oscillation value was 0.7 degrees Celsius, which is above the El Nino threshold of 0.5 degrees Celsius, the climate centre said. The climate centre's El Nino-Southern Oscillation alert system is currently in "El Nino Advisory," suggesting El Nino conditions are observed and expected to continue. The high confidence in the El Nino forecast is linked to anomalously high oceanic heat content and expanding westerly wind anomalies across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

According to the centre's climate model, El Nino is likely to intensify during the Northern Hemisphere winter, which spans from December to March. There is a 63% chance of a very strong El Nino during November to January, which could rank among the largest El Nino events on record since 1950, the climate centre said. For a very strong El Nino, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation Index should show a maximum anomaly of more than 2 degrees Celsius.

A stronger El Nino does not always ensure a stronger impact, the climate centre said. The strength of the event can only make certain impacts more likely, it explained. 

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation refers to the fluctuation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino is linked to drier and hotter weather in India, while La Nina results in more favourable rainfall.

Rainfall during the southwest monsoon season in India is likely to be below normal due to the development of El Nio, the India Meteorological Department said. Currently, neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions are transitioning to El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the weather department said. Most international climate models indicate the development of El Nino during the monsoon, with the probability of such an event at 92% during the season, the department said.  End

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

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