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Informist, Thursday, Jun. 11, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil

 

MUMBAI – The rupee slumped against the dollar and ended at a one-week low Thursday as banks persistently bought dollars on behalf of oil marketing companies and other importers, who feared further depreciation of the Indian unit amid escalation in the war in West Asia, dealers said. A jump in crude oil prices during the day also weighed on the Indian unit, they said. 

 

"Importers were panic buying (dollars) on every dip (in dollar-rupee). There was heavy buying of over $2 billion, mostly from oilers (oil marketing companies)," a dealer at a private-sector bank said.

 

However, further depreciation of the rupee was limited as the Reserve Bank of India likely stepped in to sell dollars at multiple levels, they said. The RBI likely sold around $1 billion during the day, according to dealers.

 

"The RBI came in the morning and intervened at 95.65 (a dollar) level, they came in again at 95.75 (a dollar)," the dealer said. However, dealers said the intervention was not aggressive and it looked like it was only aimed at managing volatility. The Indian unit settled at 95.7600 a dollar on Thursday, 0.5% lower than its previous close. The Indian unit moved within a 24-paise range during the day.

 

The Indian unit began the day on a weaker footing as crude oil prices rose and inched closer to $95 per barrel in early trade, dealers said. At 1530 IST, Brent crude oil prices for August delivery fell to $92.25 a barrel from $93.10 Wednesday. It rose to a high of 95.50 a barrel earlier in the day. 

 

The positive sentiment stemming from expected foreign inflows following the RBI's foreign capital measures seemed to fade Thursday as market participants shifted their focus to the rapid escalation of the war in West Asia. The Indian unit snapped its two-day gaining streak Thursday. 

 

The US and Iran traded strikes overnight, adversely affecting investors' risk appetite. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz completely in retaliation for the US launching strikes on the country. Iran also attacked US bases in Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait. The recent escalation has dampened hopes that the war will end soon.

 

Among the various measures, the central bank has unveiled a facility to cover the full hedging costs for banks raising fresh three- to five-year foreign currency non-resident bank deposits till Sept. 30. The RBI's swap facility for banks to raise fresh FCNR deposits is expected to attract around $43 billion in inflows, according to an Informist poll.

 

"Right now, there are no substantial inflows in the market. If this expected amount enters the market, the rupee could rise to 93.00 (a dollar), but it will happen gradually. The volume of inflows has to be watched closely in the coming days," a dealer at a public sector bank said. 

 

The dollar index stayed above 100 on Thursday, supported by safe-haven demand amid uncertainty over the West Asia war, which weighed on the rupee, dealers said. At 1530 IST, the index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 100.13 against 100.08 Wednesday. 

 

A slight fall in domestic equities also put pressure on the rupee, according to dealers. On Thursday, the Nifty 50 and Sensex were down 0.2?ch. 

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.7600	95.5200	95.5200	95.7600	95.2650
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	274.89	278.11	278.11	273.57	268.73

 

FORWARDS 

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium ended at a one-week high as banks bought forward dollars for importers, fearing a further fall in the rupee in the spot market, dealers said. However, the rise in premium was limited as dealers speculated that the RBI may have sold dollars for short-term forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions, they said. 

 

Further, US Treasury yields fell during the European trade, which also supported the premiums, dealers said. At 1530 IST, the US Treasury yield was at 4.53%, down from 4.57% Wednesday. 

 

The one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.87% at 1530 IST, up from Wednesday's close of 2.81%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 274.89 paise, against 268.73 paise Wednesday.

 

OUTLOOK 

On Friday, the rupee will take cues from movement in crude oil prices amid the war in West Asia, dealers said. Dealers expect the Indian unit to remain under pressure as long as the Brent crude oil prices remain elevated. The currency is likely to take cues from the movement in the dollar index as well, they said.

 

"Post market hours, the rupee traded above 95.80 (in offshore non-deliverable forward market), but it is unlikely to touch 96.00 a dollar Friday. I expect the RBI to step in and protect that level," a dealer at a foreign bank said. 

 

The Indian currency may continue to find support from the RBI's dollar sales through state-owned banks, they said. "It is difficult to predict the RBI's intervention strategy. It was aggressive Wednesday, but today it sold less, just to keep the levels intact," a dealer at a brokerage said. However, dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars amid looming uncertainties related to the war in West Asia, exerting pressure on the Indian unit. 

 

Dealers see strong technical support for the Indian currency at 96.00 per dollar. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 95.50-96.00 against the dollar Friday. 

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India Rupee - World FX: Dlr inches up on weak risk appetite amid W Asia war

 

	AT 1430 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3363	1.3392	1.3350	1.3372
EUR/USD	1.1532	1.1556	1.1526	1.1534
NZD/USD	0.5783	0.5807	0.5780	0.5790
AUD/USD	0.6997	0.7012	0.6988	0.6995
USD/JPY	160.5330	160.5890	160.4280	160.4970
USD/CAD	1.3978	1.3980	1.3932	1.3930
EUR/JPY	185.1360	185.4700	185.0570	185.1600
CHF/USD	1.2500	1.2531	1.2490	1.2494
EUR/CHF	0.9225	0.9230	0.9219	0.9222

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index rose slightly during European market hours as investors' risk appetite was dampened amid escalations in the war in West Asia. The US consumer price index rose to a three-year high of 4.2% in May, in line with market expectations, supporting the US unit.  At 1430 IST, the dollar index was 100.09 against 100.08 Wednesday. 

 

Brent crude was down marginally. At 1430 IST, Brent crude oil price was at $92.06 per barrel, down from $93.10 on Wednesday. Brent crude oil prices were trading around $90 a barrel for most of the day Wednesday before rising sharply as tensions rose in West Asia. 

The euro was steady against the dollar as investors await the outcome of the European Central Bank's monetary policy meeting due Thursday. The European Central Bank is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.25%, with a hawkish stance.

 

The pound sterling was steady against the greenback. The Japanese yen and the Canadian dollar fell slightly Thursday. The Bank of Canada on Wednesday left its overnight interest rate unchanged at 2.25%, keeping it on hold for the fifth consecutive time. 

 

The Swiss franc and the Swedish krona both rose marginally against the greenback Thursday. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: 1-year premium at 1-week high as importers buy fwd dlrs

 

	AT 1349 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.7100	95.5200	95.5200	95.6450	95.2650
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	274.39	278.10	278.11	273.57	268.73

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium rose to a one-week high as banks bought forward dollars for importers, fearing further fall of the rupee in the spot market, dealers said. "There was a lot of buying (dollars) today, especially by oil importers. There was buying roughly around $1 billion-$2 billion today on the spot," a dealer at a foreign bank said.  

 

However, the rise in forward premiums was limited as dealers speculated that the Reserve Bank of India sold dollars for short-term forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions, they said. "In the forwards, the selling was not much, just to keep the levels tight. In the spot market, interventions were seen around 95.65 (a dollar) and 95.73 (a dollar)," the dealer said.

 

Considering spot dollar sales push out rupee liquidity from the banking system, the RBI conducts buy-sell swaps to replenish liquidity. A buy-sell swap entails buying dollars for immediate delivery and entering into a contract to sell these at a future date, postponing the drain on systemic liquidity. 

 

The rupee plunged in the spot market due to a rise in crude oil prices amid escalation in the West Asia war. The US and Iran continued strikes on each other, dampening investor sentiment. Brent crude oil price rose to $92.74 a barrel from Wednesday's low of $90.77 a barrel.  

 

At 1336 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.87%, against Wednesday's close of 2.81%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 274.39 paise, against Wednesday's close of 268.73 paise. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Plunges on importers' demand, oil gains; RBI's dlr sales support

 

	AT 1242 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.7000	95.5200	95.5200	95.6450	95.2650

 

MUMBAI – The rupee plunged as banks actively bought dollars for oil companies and other importers, fearing further depreciation of the Indian unit, dealers said. Mid-monthly flows also added pressure to the rupee, they said. "There's a lot of buying in the market, mostly by oilers (oil marketing companies). There's also government debt covering of one-yard, which dragged the rupee to 95.70 (a dollar)," a dealer at a public sector bank said. 

 

However, the fall of the rupee was limited as the Reserve Bank of India stepped in to sell dollars through state-owned banks, they said. "In early trade, the RBI was selling around 95.65 a dollar. The next intervention could be at 95.80 levels," a dealer at a private sector bank said. The RBI has been selling dollars at multiple levels this week to contain volatility of the market. 

 

However, rising oil prices due to escalation in the war in West Asia kept the rupee under pressure. Brent crude oil prices for August delivery rose to $93.39 a barrel at 1217 IST from $91.10 a barrel Wednesday. Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz completely in retaliation to the US launching strikes on the country. Iran also attacked US bases in Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait. The recent escalation has dampened hopes that the war will end soon. 

 

A few dealers said that the market has already priced in the inflows expected due to the RBI's measures. The RBI unveiled a swap facility for banks to raise fresh foreign currency non-resident deposits. It also unveiled a facility to cover the full hedging costs for banks raising fresh three- to five-year FCNR(B) deposits till Sept. 30. "These inflows will come in through swap. It will of course impact the spot prices because of more dollars coming in. But until the global uncertainty persists, the rupee will depreciate," a dealer at a public sector bank said. "And I think the market has somewhat discounted these inflows. The RBI has done everything now, only hike rates are left now." 

 

A slight fall in the dollar index also supported the Indian unit. At 1233 IST, the index was at 99.99, down from 100.08 Wednesday. The dollar weakened after the US consumer price index rose to a three-year high of 4.2% in May. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in the range of 95.30-95.80 a dollar. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 95.80 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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 India Rupee: Falls sharply as oil nears $95/bbl; RBI's dlr sales support

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.5925	95.5200	95.5200	95.6450	95.2650

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell sharply against the dollar in early trade Thursday as crude oil prices surged after the US and Iran trade strikes overnight, which led to a rapid escalation in the war. US President Donald Trump said Thursday, "We hit them hard yesterday (Wednesday) and we're going to hit them hard again today." Iran has reportedly shut down the Strait of Hormuz completely. Brent crude oil prices for August delivery rose to $94.73 a barrel, from Wednesday's low of $90.77 a barrel. 

 

"We stay the same, the crude price will influence the direction of the rupee. The next support may be at 95.80 a dollar. If war won't abate, the rupee will be dragged to 96 plus soon," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

However, dealers said that public sector banks sold dollars, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, at around 95.65 a dollar to support the rupee. "RBI is protecting levels now, aggressive selling is not seen. It may come in aggressively if rupee approaches 95.80 a dollar," a dealer at a foreign bank said.  

 

During the day, dealers expect buying of dollars by banks on behalf of importers, especially oil importers, fearing further depreciation of the rupee going ahead. For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in the range of 95.05-95.80. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 95.70 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Jun 11

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Thursday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist Poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Private-sector bank	95.80	95.50
Private-sector bank	95.80	95.20
Private-sector bank	95.80	95.30
Private-sector bank	95.60	95.00
Private-sector bank	95.80	95.30
Foreign bank	95.65	95.00
Brokerage firm	95.65	95.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most fall as oil gains on rising tensions in W Asia

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies fell against the dollar in early trade Thursday as crude oil prices rose sharply amid rising tensions in West Asia. An Iranian military official said Thursday that retaliatory strikes have been launched against US forces in Kuwait and Bahrain. Tehran has also ordered the complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz to all vessels, including oil tankers and commercial vessels, according to media reports. 

 

Meanwhile, the US launched attacks on Iran, calling the strikes self-defence and in response to Iran's unwarranted and continued aggression. "They've taken too long to negotiate a deal that would have been great for them; now they will have to pay the price," US President Donald Trump said. Brent crude oil prices for August delivery rose to $95.05 a barrel at 0700 IST, from $93.10 Wednesday. Brent crude oil prices were trading around $91 a barrel for most of the day Wednesday before escalations in West Asia. 

 

The fall in Asian currencies was limited as the US dollar weakened after US consumer price index data showed a 4.2% May reading, the highest level since May 2023 and well above the Federal Reserve's target. At 0700 IST, the dollar index was 99.90, down from 100.08 Wednesday.

 

The South Korean won fell 0.3% to 1526.48 from 1521.69 Wednesday as foreign investors sold South Korean stocks amid weak sentiment. The Bank of Korea and the Financial Supervisory Service began on-site and off-site examinations of major foreign exchange banks on Wednesday, to check if the institutions were engaging in trading that risked destabilising the forex market. The won had fallen to its lowest level since March 2009 in the first week of June. 

 

The Malaysian ringgit was down marginally to 4.070 a dollar from 4.067 Wednesday. The Thai baht broke a four-day losing streak and rose to 32.87 a dollar from 32.92 Wednesday. The Philippine peso rose for the fourth consecutive day Thursday to 61.31 a dollar from 61.33 the previous day. 

 

The Taiwan dollar fell 0.2% to 31.69 a dollar from 31.62 Wednesday. The Chinese yuan was broadly steady at 6.77 a dollar Thursday. (Divya Moolayattil) 

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 95.7600

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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