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Informist, Wednesday, Jun. 10, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil

 

MUMBAI – The rupee ended off its day's high against the dollar on Wednesday as banks bought dollars for importers, looking to make the most of the relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, dealers said. The rupee rose sharply earlier in the day as the Reserve Bank of India likely sold dollars through state-owned banks, they said. Dealers said the RBI likely sold nearly $2 billion Wednesday. 

 

"The RBI kept selling (dollars) throughout the day, at 95.40 and 95.20 (a dollar), taking the rupee to a high of 95.0850 (a dollar),'" a dealer at private sector bank said. After rising to a high of 95.0850 a dollar during the day, the Indian unit settled at 95.2650 a dollar on Wednesday, just 9 paise higher than 95.3500 a dollar on Tuesday. Asian currencies traded on a mixed note, with the Indonesian rupiah falling over 1%, the worst performer Wednesday. 

 

The Indian currency was also supported by growing hopes of substantial foreign inflows after the RBI Friday announced foreign capital measures, dealers said. The measures include a swap facility for banks on fresh foreign currency non-resident deposits and a facility to cover the full hedging costs for banks raising fresh three- to five-year FCNR(B) deposits till Sept. 30.

 

According to the median of estimates from 16 market participants polled by Informist, the RBI's swap facility for banks to raise fresh FCNR(B) deposits may attract around $43 billion in inflows. 

 

The Indian unit opened sharply lower against the dollar on Wednesday, weighed down by rising crude oil prices amid escalation in the war in West Asia, dealers said. Iran Wednesday attacked the US in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan after the US launched missiles on Iran, calling it self-defence, as Tehran had on Tuesday shot down a US army helicopter.

 

At 1530 IST, Brent crude oil prices for August delivery were $91.56, slightly higher than $91.45 a barrel on Tuesday. Brent crude had fallen to an over seven-week low of $89.57 a barrel Tuesday. 

 

However, the RBI likely stepped in to sell dollars, at multiple dollar-rupee levels, which led to the Indian unit giving up all losses, dealers said. Market participants said it was peculiar that the central bank intervened at such levels. "RBI is intervening at random levels these days, maybe they want to make the measures work and not let long (dollar) positions build up at all in the market," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. 

 

A slight fall in the dollar index during European trading hours also supported the Indian unit. Investors were cautious ahead of US consumer price index data on Wednesday. At 1530 IST, the dollar index was at 99.87, down from 99.99 Tuesday. The index fell to 99.84 during the day. 

 

Dealers said the pace of foreign portfolio investors exiting Indian markets reduced amid positive sentiment in the market as a slew of measures were rolled out to make India an attractive market. Foreign portfolio investors sold $181.75 million Tuesday compared to $282.98 million and $577.25 million sold on Wednesday and Tuesday, respectively, just before measures were announced. 

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.2650	95.5400	95.0750	95.5625	95.3500
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	268.73	261.93	269.54	261.93	258.75

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium snapped its three-day losing streak and rose as banks bought forward dollars on behalf of importers, dealers said. However, they added that the RBI likely sold dollars for forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions, which limited the rise in forward premiums.

 

Further, US Treasury yields fell slightly as investors await US CPI data, which supported forwards, dealers said. At 1530 IST, the US Treasury yield was at 4.52%, down from 4.53% Tuesday. According to a Reuters poll, the US May CPI is likely to rise 4.2% on year, the largest annual rise since April 2023. The US CPI rose 3.8% in April.

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.81%, against Tuesday's close of 2.71%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 268.73 paise, against Tuesday's close of 258.75 paise.

 

OUTLOOK

On Thursday, the rupee will take cues from movements in crude oil prices amid rising tensions in West Asia as the US and Iran continue attacks on each other. Trump said on Wednesday post market hours that Iran had taken too long to negotiate a peace deal and would now have to "pay the price." "Iran's Military is a complete and total mess," the president said in a post on Truth Social. "Much of it, like their Navy and Air Force, doesn't even exist anymore - They have been completely defeated. Iran is all talk and no action."

 

However, dealers expect the market sentiment to remain somewhat positive on hope of dollar inflows amid the RBI's measures to support the rupee. Market participants will closely watch US CPI inflation, due later in the day, as it will determine the direction of the dollar index, and other currencies as well, dealers said.

 

"A higher-than-expected inflation reading could support the dollar and keep pressure on emerging market currencies, while a softer reading may provide some relief," Jateen Trivedi, vice-president research analyst - commodity and currency, LKP Securities, said in a note. 

 

Dealers expect oil companies and other importers to continue buying dollars amid volatility in oil prices and uncertainty about the situation in West Asia, which may weigh on the Indian currency. Most dealers expect the RBI to intervene by selling dollars, as it has been doing since the war started. 

 

Dealers now see strong technical resistance for the Indian currency at 95.00 per dollar, a break of which may push the Indian unit to 94.80. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 95.00-95.50 against the dollar Thursday. 

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India Rupee - World FX: Dlr dn as mkt remains cautious ahead of US CPI data

 

	AT 1418 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3389	1.3397	1.3369	1.3369
EUR/USD	1.1551	1.1559	1.1534	1.1539
NZD/USD	0.5809	0.5823	0.5806	0.5813
AUD/USD	0.7011	0.7032	0.7009	0.7024
USD/JPY	160.3950	160.4340	160.2430	160.3480
USD/CAD	1.3932	1.3957	1.3930	1.3941
EUR/JPY	185.2650	185.3500	184.9590	184.9460
CHF/USD	1.2515	1.2540	1.2508	1.2518
EUR/CHF	0.9228	0.9231	0.9213	0.9208

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index was marginally down Wednesday as investors turned cautious ahead of the US CPI data for May, which is due Wednesday. At 1400 IST, the dollar index fell to 99.91, from 99.99 Tuesday. Investors will closely watch the US CPI data to get fresh cues regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook. According to market estimates, the CPI is likely to increase 4.2% on year, marking the largest annual rise in the CPI since April 2023. The US CPI rose 3.8% in April.

 

Investors were on edge on rising tension in West Asia as the US and Iran continued to strike each other. Iran Wednesday attacked the US fleet in Bahrain. The attack came after the US launched missiles on Iran, calling it self-defence, as Tehran shot down a US army helicopter on Tuesday. At 1400 IST, Brent crude oil prices for August delivery were $92.09 a barrel, up from $91.45 a barrel Tuesday.

The euro and the pound sterling fell marginally against the dollar. The Japanese yen also fell marginally as Japan's producer prices rose more than expected in May due to cost pressures from higher energy and raw material imports, Bank of Japan data showed on Wednesday. Japan's producer price index was 6.3% in May, up from 5.3% in April and well above forecasts of 5.6%.

 

The Swiss franc fell 0.4% against the dollar and the Swedish Krona fell 0.7%, the most among the dollar index currencies. The Canadian dollar fell 0.2% against the dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: 1-year premium up as importers buy fwd dlrs noting rupee's rise

 

	AT 1330 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.1800	95.5400	95.0850	95.5625	95.3500
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	267.13	261.93	269.54	261.93	258.75

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium snapped its three-day losing streak and rose as banks bought forward dollars on behalf of importers, dealers said. "Importers are hedging continuously, given the better range of the rupee," a delaer at a foreign bank said. 

 

However, dealers said the Reserve Bank of India likely sold dollars for forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions and avert pushing out rupee liquidity, which limited the rise in forward premiums. "The RBI was very actively selling in spot throughout the day, at mutiple levels. But not much in forwards today," the dealer said. 

 

The rupee rose sharply in the spot market as traders sold dollars to trim their long dollar positions on hopes of foreign exchnage inflows amid RBI's measures, which include a swap facility for banks on fresh foreign currency non-resident deposits and a facility to cover the full hedging costs for banks raising fresh three- to five-year FCNR(B) deposits till Sept. 30.

 

Further, US Treasury yields rose slightly amid escalation in the West Asia conflict, which also put pressure on forwards, dealers said. At 1330 IST, the US Treasury yield was at 4.54%, up from 4.53% Tuesday. 

 

At 1330 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.79%, against Tuesday's close of 2.71%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 267.13 paise, against Tuesday's close of 258.75 paise. (Divya Moolayattil) 

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India Rupee: Rises sharply as RBI intervenes, traders trim long dlr positions

 

	AT 1300 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.1800	95.5400	95.0850	95.5625	95.3500

 

MUMBAI – The rupee rose sharply against the dollar Wednesday, with dealers speculating that the Reserve Bank of India sold dollars actively through state-owned banks, dealers said. "RBI was selling throughout the day. They started selling from 40s (95.40 a dollar), also sold aggressively below 30 (95.30 a dollar), that took to 95.0625," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

The Indian currency got support as traders actively sold long dollar positions on hopes of foreign exchange inflows after the RBI announced measures to boost the Indian unit, dealers said. "There was huge selling today, easily around $2 billion. Highs (dollar-rupee levels) are getting sold off. There are chances of the rupee going outside 96.00 (a dollar) today (Wednesday)," a dealer at a public sector bank said. 

 

The Reserve Bank of India's swap facility for banks to raise fresh foreign currency non-resident deposits is expected to attract around $43 billion in inflows, according to an Informist poll. The central bank also unveiled a facility to cover the full hedging costs for banks raising fresh three- to five-year FCNR(B) deposits till Sept. 30. "If the geopolitical tensions remain, the rupee will trade between 94.50-95.50(a dollar), with dollar inflows coming in. But if the war ends, then 93.80-94.00 (a dollar) is possible," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

Dealers said banks bought dollars for importers, noting the relatively lower dollar rupee level and uncertainty in the West Asia war, which put downward pressure on the Indian unit. Brent crude oil prices for August delivery fell to $90.80 a barrel from $91.45 a barrel Tuesday as the market keeps a watch on developments in the US-Iran deal even as both countries continue attacks. 

 

A rise in domestic equities also helped the rupee appreciate. At 1210 IST, the Nifty 50 and Sensex were up 0.6% and 0.7%, respectively. A slight fall in the dollar index also supported the Indian unit. At 1210, the index was at 99.86, down from 99.99 Tuesday. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in the range of 95.00-95.50 a dollar. Dealers see immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 95.00 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Jun 10

 

MUMBAI – At 1107 IST, the rupee was at 95.2450 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 95.5400 a dollar, against the previous close of 95.3500. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and a brokerage:

 

Participant	S2	S1	R1	R2
Public-sector bank	95.75	95.50	95.15	95.00
Private-sector bank	95.60	95.50	95.10	95.00
Private-sector bank	95.70	95.60	95.00	94.80
Foreign bank	95.60	95.40	95.15	95.00
Brokerage firm	95.90	95.65	95.15	94.85
Brokerage firm	96.00	95.75	95.10	94.90

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Erases most losses on hopes of dlr inflows; rise in oil weighs

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.4500	95.5400	95.3850	95.5625	95.3500

 

MUMBAI – The rupee erased most losses as traders trimmed long dollar bets on hopes of forex inflows after the Reserve Bank of India announced measures to support the Indian unit and bulk up foreign exchange reserves, dealers said.

 

The rupee opened sharply lower against the dollar Wednesday as rising crude oil prices weighed on sentiment amid an escalation in tensions in West Asia. The US and Iran traded strikes on each other Wednesday. Iran attacked the US fleet in Bahrain after the US launched missiles at Iran. The US called its attack 'self-defence' as Tehran shot down a US Army helicopter on Tuesday. Brent crude oil, which had fallen to an over seven-week low of $89.57 a barrel Tuesday, rose to $92.33 a barrel at 0910 IST, putting pressure on the rupee, dealers said. "Oil will remain below 95, unless there are fresh escalations. The rupee will find support," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

Banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, noting a sharp rise in the rupee, the dealer said. "Let's see how the rupee will hold, because there's buying today also," a dealer at a foreign bank said.  

 

Some dealers expect dollar inflows to start Wednesday, which will boost the Indian unit, dealers said. However, others said dollar inflows will start by next week after banks raise their FCNR rates. 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in the range of 95.20-95.60. Dealers see immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 95.30 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Jun 10

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Wednesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist Poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Private-sector bank	95.80	95.30
Private-sector bank	95.75	95.10
Private-sector bank	95.75	95.25
Private-sector bank	95.80	95.50
Private-sector bank	95.80	95.30
Foreign bank	95.60	95.20
Brokerage firm	95.65	95.10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most fall as oil rises amid escalation in West Asia

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies fell against the dollar in early trade Wednesday as Iran attacked the US fleet in Bahrain Wednesday. The attack came after the US launched missiles on Iran, calling it self-defence, as Tehran shot down a US army helicopter on Tuesday.

 

US President Donald Trump said Wednesday, "I think it's very important to respond. They shot down a helicopter... I believe the response should be very strong, very powerful, and that's what this one is." The Israeli army chief of staff said the country is prepared to wage another "deep strike" on Iran if the US gives the order.

 

Brent crude oil prices rose Wednesday after the flare-ups between the two sides. At 0700 IST, Brent crude oil prices for August delivery were $92.05 a barrel, up from $91.45 a barrel Tuesday. Brent crude oil prices had touched an over seven-week low of $89.57 a barrel Tuesday. 

 

Meanwhile, a higher probability of the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates amid rising inflation has prompted capital outflows from emerging markets, which put pressure on Asian currencies. Investors will closely monitor the US Consumer Price Index for May due Wednesday ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee's meeting scheduled next week.

 

The South Korean won rose slightly to 1520.58 a dollar from 1524.67 Tuesday as the Bank of Korea announced a slew of measures to support the currency, including hedging by the National Pension Service through dollar forward sales, tighter monitoring of offshore derivatives, and scrutiny of suspected misconduct.

The Malaysian ringgit fell to a six-month low of 4.064 a dollar from 4.058 Tuesday. The ringgit has fallen more than 3% so far this month and is the worst performer among Asian peers in June.

 

The Thai baht fell marginally to a three-week low of 32.93 a dollar from 32.88 Tuesday. The Taiwanese dollar also fell 0.2% to 31.63 a dollar from 31.56 Tuesday. The Philippine peso and Chinese yuan fell marginally against the dollar in early trade Wednesday. (Divya Moolayattil)

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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