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Informist, Wednesday, Jun. 10, 2026

 

MUMBAI – Forecasts of the Indian Ocean Dipole remain uncertain, but most climate models indicate that neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are likely to persist till at least Southern Hemisphere mid-winter, after which a positive event is likely to develop during the Southern Hemisphere winter-spring, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said in its fortnightly report on Tuesday.

 

Winter in the Southern Hemisphere spans from June to September, and spring from September to December.

 

Currently, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are prevailing, with the index reading at (-)0.34 degrees Celsius as of Sunday. Forecasts from different international climate models, including the bureau's, show a large variation in both the timing and strength of a potential positive Indian Ocean Dipole.

 

The Indian Ocean Dipole is the difference in surface temperatures between the eastern and western tropical Indian Ocean. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole leads to less rainfall in India, while a positive index leads to more rainfall. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole could mitigate some effects of an El Nio event on the southwest monsoon in India.

 

The tropical Pacific Ocean is approaching El Nio conditions, the bureau said. Sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean now exceed El Nio thresholds, while atmospheric indicators have also begun to align with an El Nio state. This suggests some coupling between the ocean and atmosphere may be occurring, and if this is sustained, an El Nio event is likely to become established, the bureau said.

 

Atmospheric indicators, such as trade winds, pressure, and cloud patterns, are trending towards an El Nio event, the bureau said. The latest El Nio-Southern Oscillation index value as of Sunday was 0.81 degrees Celsius. All climate models, including the bureau's, forecast that the tropical Pacific will continue to warm in the coming months. 

 

Ocean surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific between (-)0.80 degrees Celsius and 0.80 degrees Celsius are considered to be neutral conditions, while sustained values below (-)0.8 degrees Celsius for at least three months are considered indicative of a La Nia event. Sustained values above 0.8 degrees Celsius are associated with an El Nio event.

 

Some uncertainty persists regarding the strength of the upcoming El Nio event. Climate models indicate that the event will be at least moderate in strength, with the possibility of a strong event, based on the extent of the warming in the central tropical Pacific Ocean, the bureau said. 

 

The El Nio-Southern Oscillation refers to the fluctuation between El Nio and La Nia conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nio is linked to drier, hotter weather in India, while La Nia is associated with more favourable rainfall.

 

Rainfall during the southwest monsoon season in India is likely to be below normal due to the development of El Nio, the India Meteorological Department had said. Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are currently prevailing and are likely to continue during the monsoon, it had said. However, there is a chance of the Indian Ocean Dipole inching towards a positive index during the second half of the season, which is Aug-Sept, the Indian weather department had said.  End

 

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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