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Informist, Tuesday, Jun. 9, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil

 

MUMBAI – The rupee rose sharply against the dollar Tuesday on expectation of substantial dollar inflows on the back of the Reserve Bank of India's foreign capital measures and a fall in Brent crude oil price, dealers said.

 

"The inflows will come in, it will take some time. It is a process...Today, rupee went to 95.23 (a dollar) as banks were aggressively selling dollars to unwind their (long dollar) positions," a dealer at a private sector bank said. Market participants expect $70 billion-$80 billion worth of foreign fund inflows into India in the next four-five months owing to recent measures by the central bank and the government.

 

The rupee settled at 95.3500 Tuesday, 0.4% higher compared to the previous close. Asian currencies traded on a mixed note, with the Indian unit being the best performer on Tuesday.

 

The RBI Monday issued details of its US dollar-rupee swap facility for fresh Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank) deposits, mobilised for a minimum tenor of three years and maximum tenor of five years. The central bank allowed banks to price these deposits as per their internal policy, but within the overall ceiling. The dollar-rupee forex swap facility for external commercial borrowings and overseas foreign currency borrowings was extended to all lenders; it had earlier been introduced only for public sector undertakings. 

 

The Indian unit opened sharply higher against the dollar as crude oil prices fell sharply after Israel and Iran agreed to halt attacks on each other. US President Donald Trump Monday said that the Strait of Hormuz would open "immediately upon signing" a deal with Iran, which he said could be in two or three days.

 

At 1530 IST, Brent crude oil prices were at $92.08 a barrel, against Monday's high of $98.08 a barrel. "The sentiment in the market is leaning on a positive side for now, but until the uncertainty about the West Asia war persists, there will be no big appreciation in the rupee," a dealer at a foreign bank said. 

 

However, the Indian unit came under pressure shortly afterwards and hit a low of 95.6650 a dollar as banks rushed to buy dollars for importers, noting the relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, dealers said.

 

However, dealers said the RBI's likely dollar sales through state-owned banks prevented the Indian unit from falling. "There was some selling (of dollars) at around 95.65 (a dollar). RBI was just holding that level," a dealer at another foreign bank said. The RBI has likely been selling dollars this week to contain volatility, and not protect any levels, they said. 

 

Benchmark domestic equity indices, the Nifty 50 and the Sensex, were up 0.5?ch Tuesday, supporting the Indian unit. Dealers said foreign portfolio outflows subsided on Monday amid positive sentiment in the market due to measures by the RBI and the government. "There is buying from importers. I am sure there are no outflows on FPI side today (Tuesday)," the dealer said. So far in June, FPIs have pulled out $2.24 billion from the Indian market. 

 

A fall in the dollar index also supported the rupee, according to dealers. At 1530 IST, the dollar index was at 99.77, down from 100 Monday.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.3500	95.4650	95.2275	95.6650	95.7075
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	258.75	256.00	262.25	254.00	266.13

 

FORWARDS

Dollar-rupee forward premiums fell sharply across most tenures as some dealers speculated that the RBI may have sold dollars for short-term forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions, dealers said. Premiums were also under downward pressure as banks sold forward dollars on expectations of substantial inflows from RBI's measures, they added. The one-year forward premium hit an over three-month low of 254.00 paise or 2.66% Tuesday. 

 

However, the fall in premiums was limited as some banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, noting the relatively lower levels and sharp appreciation of the rupee, dealers said.

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.71%, against Monday's close of 2.78%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 258.75 paise, against Monday's close of 266.13 paise.

 

OUTLOOK

On Wednesday, the rupee will take cues from movement in crude oil prices amid developments related to a peace deal between the US and Iran as US President Trump said both countries could reach an agreement soon. Dealers expect positive sentiment on hope of dollar inflows after the RBI's measures to continue supporting the rupee.

 

"Overall, we think the measures announced by the RBI will help to alleviate some of the pressure on the INR and help to eliminate BoP (balance of payments) vulnerabilities. Nonetheless, the current account deficit remains heavily oil-driven and oil prices remain elevated. We think importers may use the dip in USDINR to buy more dollars cheaply," Barclays said in a note.

 

Dealers expect oil companies and other importers to continue buying dollars amid volatility in oil prices and uncertainty over the situation in West Asia, which may weigh on the Indian currency. Most dealers expect the RBI to intervene by selling dollars, as it has been doing since the war started. 

 

Dealers now see strong technical resistance for the Indian currency at 95.15 per dollar, a break of which may push the Indian unit to 94.95. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 95.00-95.50 against the dollar Wednesday. 

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India Rupee - World FX: Dlr down as oil falls after Israel, Iran call truce

 

	AT 1449 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3388	1.3390	1.3331	1.3340
EUR/USD	1.1557	1.1559	1.1527	1.1536
NZD/USD	0.5832	0.5847	0.5800	0.5811
AUD/USD	0.7055	0.7070	0.7035	0.7046
USD/JPY	160.1740	160.2800	160.0560	160.1360
USD/CAD	1.3937	1.3959	1.3931	1.3943
EUR/JPY	185.1120	185.1300	184.5400	184.6900
CHF/USD	1.2556	1.2567	1.2524	1.2530
EUR/CHF	0.9203	0.9206	0.9193	0.9200

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index fell as market sentiment improved after Israel and Iran agreed to resume ceasefire, clearing the way for peace talks between the US and Iran to continue. US President Donald Trump Monday said the US was "in the final throes of what will be a very, very good deal". He added that the Strait of Hormuz would open "immediately upon signing", which he said could be in two or three days. At 1420 IST, the dollar index was at 99.89, down from 100 Monday. Brent crude oil prices for August delivery fell to $92.65 a barrel from Monday's high of $98.08 a barrel. 

 

The euro was down marginally against the dollar. The pound sterling was 0.1% lower against the dollar as production in Germany's manufacturing sector fell 0.5% on year in April, but rose 0.4% from March. 

 

The Japanese yen and the Swiss franc fell 0.2% against the greenback. The Canadian dollar and Swedish krona also fell slightly against the dollar Tuesday.  (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Premiums down on speculation of RBI's forward dollar sales

 

	AT 1400 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.3575	95.4650	95.3450	95.6650	95.7050
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	295.39	290.98	296.98	389.68	297.29

 

MUMBAI – Dollar-rupee forward premiums fell sharply across tenures as some dealers speculated that the Reserve Bank of India may have sold dollars for short-term forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions, dealers. The one-year forward premium hit an over three-month low of 254.00 paise or 2.66?rlier in the day. The central bank was seen conducting buy-sell swaps for maturity in 12-18 months last week, as per dealers. 

Premiums were also under downward pressure as banks sold forward dollars after the Reserve Bank of India issued details of its US dollar-rupee swap facility for fresh Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank) deposits, mobilised for a minimum tenor of three years and a maximum tenor of five years. The RBI's window for banks to raise FCNR deposits is expected to draw significant inflows of around $30 billion-$40 billion, as per market participants. "Demand for forwards have fallen and people are receiving at higher side now after news of FCNR deposits," a dealer at a private sector bank said.

However, the fall in premiums was limited as some banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, noting the relatively lower levels and sharp appreciation of the rupee, dealers said. The rupee surged around 40 paise against the dollar in the spot market as crude oil prices fell sharply owing to the ceasefire between Israel and Iran and as the RBI likely intervened through dollar sales, dealers said. Expectations of huge inflows in the market due to a slew of measures announced by the RBI and government also supported the rupee, they said. 

 

A fall in the US treasury yields also supported premiums, dealers said. At 1333 IST, the 10-year US treasury yield was down at 4.55%, against 4.56% Monday.

 

At 1402 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.70%, against Monday's close of 2.78%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 257.25 paise, against Monday's close of 266.12 paise. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Off highs as importers buy dollars; RBI intervention supports

 

	AT 1236 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.6400	95.4650	95.4200	95.6650	95.7050

 

MUMBAI – The rupee came off its day's high against the dollar as banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, noting a sharp appreciation of the Indian unit, dealers said. However, state-owned banks sold dollars, likely for the Reserve Bank of India, which ensured the Indian unit did not fall, they added.

 

"There was some selling (of dollars) at around 95.65 (a dollar). The RBI was just holding the level, no major selling," a dealer at a foreign bank said. The rupee rose to a high of 95.4100 a dollar in early trade but was at 95.6300 as on 1220 IST.

 

The Indian unit rose sharply earlier in the day due to a fall in crude oil prices following the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, dealers said. At 1139 IST, Brent crude oil prices for August delivery were $93.31 a barrel, down from $94.25 Monday. Brent crude oil prices had touched a high of $98.08 a barrel Monday. 

 

The Indian currency also gained from measures unveiled by the RBI on Friday to boost dollar inflows into India, details of which were issued on Monday dealers said. The RBI issued details of its US dollar-rupee swap facility for fresh Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank) deposits, mobilised for a minimum tenor of three years and maximum tenor of five years.

 

The central bank allowed banks to price these deposits as per their internal policy but within the overall ceiling, as per the extant guidelines issued by the RBI. Further, the RBI introduced a dollar-rupee forex swap facility for external commercial borrowings and overseas foreign currency borrowings with a concessional forex swap facility for public sector undertakings. "In the coming 2–3 days, we will get a clear picture of the (quantum of) inflows from FCNR deposits," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in the range of 95.30-95.70. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 95.70 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Cuts most early gains as importers buy dollars

 

	AT 1207 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.6375	95.4650	95.4200	95.6575	95.7050

 

MUMBAI – The rupee erased most gains against the dollar Tuesday as banks actively bought dollars for importers, noting sharp appreciation in the rupee, dealers said. "Importers made merry in the morning. It is the same old game, when the rupee falls (dollar-rupee), importers will come in at every dip," a dealer at a private sector bank said.

 

The rupee opened 25 paise higher against the previous close of 95.7100 a dollar as crude oil prices fell sharply after Israel and Iran agreed to resume the ceasefire. Brent crude oil prices fell sharply late Monday as the news of a ceasefire emerged. Brent crude oil prices were at $93.46 a barrel at 0900 IST, down from $94.25 Monday. Brent crude oil had hit a high of $98.08 a barrel Monday. 

 

The rupee also received support from positive market sentiment, as the Reserve Bank of India released details of its US dollar-rupee swap facility for fresh Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank) deposits. The central bank allowed banks to price these deposits according to their internal policy, but within the overall ceiling. The scale of inflows from the scheme will depend heavily on regulatory clarity, dealers said. 

 

Dealers expect the RBI to step in and sell dollars through state-owned banks if the rupee comes under extreme pressure. For the rest of the day, the rupee is expected to move in the range of 95.50-95.80. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 95.80 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Jun 9

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Tuesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist Poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Private-sector bank	95.70	95.15
Private-sector bank	95.75	95.30
Foreign bank	95.60	95.20
Foreign bank	95.70	95.20
Foreign bank	95.60	95.15
Brokerage firm	95.70	95.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Inch up as W Asia tensions ease, oil falls sharply

 

MUMBAI – Asian currencies rose slightly against the dollar in early trade Tuesday as Israel and Iran agreed to halt attacks on each other. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the country accepted the US request to halt strikes on Iran, but said attacks on Lebanon will continue. 

 

Meanwhile, Tehran warned that strikes will resume if Israel continues its aggression in Lebanon. The ceasefire came after both countries traded strikes over the weekend and till Monday, which jeopardised progress in peace talks between the US and Iran. 

 

Brent crude oil prices retreated after news of the ceasefire between Israel and Iran late Monday. At 0730 IST, Brent crude oil prices for August delivery fell to $93.74 a barrel from $94.25 Monday. Brent crude oil prices had touched a high of $98.08 a barrel Monday. The dollar index also fell to 99.97 from 100 Monday and 100.1 Friday. 

 

Meanwhile, Trump said Tuesday the US and Iran would reach an agreement in the next two weeks. Trump has repeatedly said he expects the war to reach a conclusion soon, but tensions have usually escalated after such declarations.   

 

The South Korean won recovered slightly to over a one-week high of 1517.18 a dollar, after falling Friday to its lowest level since March 2009, as the Bank of Korea said it will take stern action against speculative and market-disruptive foreign exchange activity. The Malaysian ringgit broke its four-day losing streak and rose slightly to 4.05 a dollar from 4.06 Monday. 

 

The Philippine peso inched up to 61.63 a dollar from 61.62 Monday. The Thai baht also rose slightly to 32.80 a dollar from 32.82 Monday. The Taiwanese dollar and Chinese yuan were also marginally up against the greenback Tuesday. (Divya Moolayattil)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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