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Informist, Monday, Jun. 8, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil

 

MUMBAI – The rupee posted its worst single-day fall in four weeks against the dollar Monday as crude oil prices jumped after Israel and Iran traded strikes, dealers said. Hopes of a peace deal to put an end to the war in West Asia came crashing down as Israel Monday bombed Iran after Tehran launched a wave of missiles at northern Israel late Sunday. However, losses for the Indian unit were limited as the Reserve Bank of India likely stepped in to sell dollars, they said.

 

The Indian currency settled at 95.7075 a dollar Monday, 0.8% lower than its previous close. The Indian unit erased all gains it recorded on Friday after the Reserve Bank of India announced a slew of measures to attract foreign capital inflow to support the rupee. Other Asian currencies fell 0.3-1.0% against the dollar Monday. 

 

Brent crude prices surged after Iranian officials said they would not back down until Israel stops bombing Lebanon. At 1530 IST, Brent crude oil futures for August delivery were at $96.75 a barrel, up from $93.09 a barrel Friday. Crude oil futures rose to a high of $98.08 a barrel Monday. 

The rupee was under extreme pressure as banks aggressively bought dollars on behalf of importers, who feared further depreciation amid rising hostilities in West Asia, dealers said. "The market was unexpectedly bidding (dollar buying) heavily throughout the day. There was support at 95.50 that breached as importers were there at all dips (in dollar-rupee)," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. 

 

However, less than an hour into trade, state-owned banks likely stepped in to sell dollars on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, which limited losses for the Indian unit, dealers said. The RBI likely sold dollars at multiple dollar-rupee levels through the day, but the intervention was not aggressive, they said.

 

"War is the main reason for the rupee's fall now. The main factors will play out. No one is expecting the RBI to reverse the rupee's direction," a dealer at another private-sector bank said. 

 

Dealers said that while the positive sentiment from the RBI's relief measures Friday persisted, the actual impact will take time to materialise.

 

"RBI's measures are a good initiative, inflows will definitely come, but it will take some time. There is a process. The RBI will issue more details and clarity on the FCNR window, the swap," a dealer at a public-sector bank said. "Once more directions come, banks can also bring in more investments. All of it will take about 2 months."

 

Among the various measures to support the rupee, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra Friday announced a facility of concessional foreign exchange swap till Sept. 30 to incentivise external commercial borrowings by public sector undertakings. He also introduced a facility bearing the full hedging cost for fresh three- to five-year foreign-currency non-resident deposits raised by banks till Sept. 30. The RBI also expanded the universe of government securities under the Fully Accessible Route and removed some limits for non-resident Indians and Overseas Citizens of India in equities. Most dealers expect the measures by the RBI and the government to bring inflows of around $30-$40 billion into India in the near term. 

 

A stronger dollar index also weighed on the Indian unit. At 1530 IST, the dollar index was 100.04, marginally down from 100.07 Friday. The dollar index rose above the 100 mark for the first time since Apr. 7 on Friday. 

 

A sharp fall in domestic equities exerted further pressure on the rupee, according to dealers. The Nifty 50 and the Sensex ended 1% down each Monday. Foreign portfolio investors have sold nearly $3.0 billion in equities in just five days in June, compared with outflows of $4.9 billion in May. 

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.7075	95.3200	95.1500	95.7225	94.9450
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	266.13	267.39	269.82	263.66	266.29

 

 

FORWARDS 

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium was broadly steady on Monday as dealers speculated that the RBI sold forward dollars to neutralise its interventions in the spot market, which was offset by banks' forward dollar purchases for importers who feared further rupee depreciation, dealers said.  

 

Dealers speculate that the central bank sold forward dollars with maturities of 2–4 months. The two-month dollar rupee forward premium fell to over a four-week low of 2.90% Monday. 

 

At 1530 IST, the 10-year benchmark US Treasury yield rose to 4.55% from 4.47% Friday, weighing on forward premiums.

 

The one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.78% at 1530 IST, down from Friday's close of 2.80%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 266.13 paise, against 266.29 paise Friday. 

 

OUTLOOK

The rupee will take cues from crude oil price movement Tuesday amid rising tensions in West Asia as Israel and Iran continue with bombings. If crude prices continue to rise, market participants expect the rupee to breach 96.00 a dollar Tuesday. "Once the rupee touches 96.00 a dollar, there is a high chance exporters may come in, as it is a good level for them," a dealer at a public-sector bank said. 

 

The local unit will also take cues from movements in the dollar index. Market participants expect importers to continue buying dollars, fearing rupee depreciation amid uncertainty over the situation in West Asia, which may weigh on the Indian currency. 

 

However, most dealers expect the RBI to intervene by selling dollars if the Indian unit comes under pressure. But they don't expect the central bank to intervene aggressively. "The levels at which the RBI will step in are difficult to say. It is likely we may see some selling at 95.80 (a dollar) and then at 96.00 (a dollar)," the dealer said. 

 

Market participants will also look out for details from the central bank on the measure announced Friday to spur foreign inflows into India and support the rupee. 

 

Dealers now see strong technical support for the Indian currency at 95.80 per dollar. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 95.70-96.20 against the dollar Tuesday. 

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India Rupee - World FX: Dlr index crosses 100 amid fresh strikes in W Asia

 

	AT 1430 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3309	1.3389	1.3309	1.3340
EUR/USD	1.1502	1.1540	1.1502	1.1519
NZD/USD	0.5798	0.5809	0.5784	0.5793
AUD/USD	0.7043	0.7062	0.7021	0.7051
USD/JPY	160.0150	160.3930	158.9400	160.3010
USD/CAD	1.3952	1.3952	1.3937	1.3931
EUR/JPY	184.0450	185.0000	183.1528	184.6900
CHF/USD	1.2521	1.2577	1.2521	1.2547
EUR/CHF	0.9185	0.9199	0.9172	0.9183

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index crossed 100 Monday, as hostilities in West Asia continued to dampen investors' risk sentiment. At 1430 IST, the index was at 100.14. The dollar index crossed 100 for the first time since Apr. 5. 

 

Israel and Iran traded attacks as the ceasefire, which has been in place since early April, came near to collapse. Israel on Monday bombed Iran after Tehran launched a wave of missiles at northern Israel late Sunday, accusing it of violating the ceasefire repeatedly with attacks on Lebanon against Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed militant group. Brent crude oil prices for August delivery rose to $97.69 a barrel at 1430 IST from $93.09 a barrel Friday. 

 

The euro fell almost a percent against the dollar Monday as Germany's industrial orders fell more than market expectations in April. Germany's industrial orders declined 3.8%, against a rise of 4.5% on month in March. The pound sterling fell to a three-week low of 1.334 a dollar Monday. 

 

The Japanese yen fell marginally to 160.32 a dollar even as Japan's economy expanded 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2026. The Swedish krona fell 1.3% to 9.46 a dollar, the most among currencies in the dollar index. The Swiss franc also fell 1% against the dollar and the Canadian dollar fell 0.5% to 1.39 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Premiums dn on speculation of RBI's short-tenure buy-sell swaps

 

	AT 1330 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.6400	95.3200	95.1600	95.6825	94.9450
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	264.63	267.39	269.82	263.66	266.29

 

MUMBAI – Dollar rupee forward premiums fell slightly across tenures Monday as dealers speculated the Reserve Bank of India likely sold dollars for short-term forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions. The RBI was likely selling forward dollars for maturity in 2–4 months, they said. The two-month dollar rupee forward premium fell to a four-week low of 2.93% during the day. 

 

The dealers said the RBI stepped in to sell dollars in the spot market at around 95.35 (a dollar) level, but not very aggressively. "RBI was seen in the morning, mildly, but then the importers and FPIs (foreign portfolio investors) came in and moved the rupee sharply," a dealer at a foreign bank said. "There is no reason for rupee to rise. The attacks in Middle East have resumed, oil is rising. RBI's measures will support in long term, but for now, the rupee will depreciate."

 

Considering spot dollar sales push out rupee liquidity from the banking system, the RBI conducts buy-sell swaps to replenish liquidity. A buy-sell swap entails buying dollars for immediate delivery and entering into a contract to sell these at a future date, thereby postponing the drain on systemic liquidity. 

 

At 1330 IST, the 10-year benchmark US Treasury yield rose to 4.57% from 4.47% Friday, which weighed on the forward premiums. However, banks also bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, who fear further fall of the rupee due to a jump in crude oil prices, which limited losses for the forward premiums, dealers said. 

 

At 1330 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.77%, against Friday's close of 2.80%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 264.63 paise, against Friday's close of 266.29 paise. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Slumps as importers dlr demand, oil rise; RBI dlr sales cap fall

 

	AT 1207 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.6400	95.3200	95.1600	95.6825	94.9450

 

MUMBAI – The rupee plunged against the dollar Monday as banks bought the greenback aggressively on behalf of importers, who feared a further fall in the Indian currency, dealers said. "It was expected that the rupee will stay range-bound today (Monday) and will not cross 95.50 (a dollar). But, unexpectedly, there was aggressive buying demand," a dealer at a private sector bank said. The rupee touched 95.6825 a dollar Monday. 

 

The rupee's fall was limited as the Reserve Bank of India sold dollars through state-owned banks around 95.35 a dollar for sometime, dealers said. The RBI is not hitting aggressively, just managing volatility, dealers said. "RBI's aggressive intervention is expected at 96.00 (a dollar) now, because it is a psychologically crucial level," the dealers said. 

 

Crude oil prices jumped nearly 5?ter Israel attacked Iran Monday. The strike came after Iran launched a wave of missiles on Israel, accusing them of violating the ceasefire repeatedly. At 1207 IST, Brent crude oil prices rose to $97.33 a barrel, from $93.09 a barrel Friday. 

 

Domestic equity indices the Nifty 50 and the Sensex were down 0.7?ch at 1207 IST, which exerted more pressure on the rupee. "The outflows have amplified since the war started," a dealer at another private sector bank said. "Once RBI and the government give clear guidance on the measures announced on Friday, for example, amount and dates buy-sell swap auction, the inflows will come in gradually," the dealer said. Foreign portfolio investors have sold nearly $2.20 billion in just five days of June, which is nearly half for entire May. 

 

The RBI and government announced a slew of measures Friday, which included a facility of concessional forex swap till Sept. 30 to incentivise external commercial borrowings by public sector units. It also introduced a similar facility for bearing the full hedging cost to banks for raising fresh three- to five-year foreign currency non-resident deposits till September.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in the range of 95.30-95.80. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 95.80 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Jun 8

 

MUMBAI – At 1117 IST, the rupee was at 95.4450 a dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 95.3200 a dollar, against the previous close of 94.9450. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and a brokerage:

 

Participant	S2	S1	R1	R2
Public-sector bank	95.75	95.55	95.15	95.05
Private-sector bank	95.70	95.50	95.20	95.10
Private-sector bank	95.50	95.40	95.25	95.05
Private-sector bank	95.75	95.60	95.20	95.00
Brokerage firm	95.65	95.50	95.15	95.00
Brokerage firm	95.85	95.55	95.00	94.90

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Falls sharply as oil crosses $95/bbl amid new attacks in W Asia

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	95.3000	95.3200	95.2675	95.3575	94.9450

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell sharply against the dollar in early trade Monday as oil crossed $95 a barrel. The rising hostilities in West Asia continue to weigh on the rupee, dealers said. Israel Monday bombed Iran after Tehran launched a wave of missiles at northern Israel late Sunday. Iran said it would respond if Israel continues its attack against Hezbollah in Lebanon. At 0930 IST, Brent crude oil prices for August were $96.42, up from $93.03 a barrel Friday.

 

Dealers expect the rupee to remain weak unless tensions in West Asia wane and there are some positive developments in the US-Iran peace negotiations. "Global news is negative. Attacks have started again and it looks like we are back to square one now. The rupee will fall until the war ends," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

The dollar index crossed 100 Friday for the first time since April 5, putting pressure on the rupee. At 0930 IST, the dollar index was 100.04, down from 100.07 Friday. Most Asian currencies also fell against the dollar in early trade, owing to rising oil prices, with the Malaysian ringgit falling the most. 

 

The dealers said the banks bought dollars for importers, which weighed on the rupee. "Dollar demand is there... but selling pressure is not much," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

Dealers expect the Reserve Bank of India to intervene if the rupee comes under extreme pressure. "RBI's actions and policy decisions have brought yields down, which has limited the fall of the rupee further," a dealer at a foreign bank said. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving in the range of 95.20-95.60 per dollar. Dealers see immediate technical support for the rupee at 95.40 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Jun 8

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Monday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist Poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
Private-sector bank	95.70	95.20
Private-sector bank	95.50	94.80
Foreign bank	95.50	95.05
Foreign bank	95.50	95.00
Foreign bank	95.50	95.10
Brokerage firm	95.75	94.80
Brokerage firm	95.45	94.90

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Down on fresh attacks in W Asia; ringgit falls most

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies fell against the dollar in early trade Monday as investors' risk appetite dampened amid rising hostilities in West Asia. Israel Monday bombed Iran after Tehran launched a wave of missiles at northern Israel late Sunday, accusing it of violating the ceasefire repeatedly with attacks on Lebanon against Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed militant group.

 

These attacks raise fears of a return to war between Iran and Israel, ending the ceasefire that paused the US-Israel war with Iran in early April. At 0720 IST, the dollar index rose to 100.1 Monday from 100.07 Friday. The index crossed 100 for the first time Friday since April 5. The US' non-farm payroll employment increased by 172,000 in May, which was better than market expectation of a rise of 85,000 in May, data released on Friday showed, which strengthened the dollar further. 

 

The Malaysian ringgit fell almost a percent to a five-month low of 4.065 from 4.025 Friday. The Thai baht fell 0.2% to 32.85 a dollar Monday. The Taiwan dollar fell marginally to 31.62 from 31.59 Friday. The Chinese yuan also fell 0.3% against the dollar to 6.78 from 6.76 a dollar Friday. 

 

The South Korean won rebounded 0.5% to 1551.37 a dollar in early trade Monday. The won had fallen to a 17-year low of 1558.84 a dollar Friday as foreign investors continued to exit the South Korean market. (Divya Moolayattil)

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 95.7100

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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